Fantasy Baseball: Second-half stats you need to know to prepare for the stretch run

Aside from the Mets and Phillies, MLB teams began their second-half journey on July 17, which means that as of this morning we have witnessed exactly one month of second-half action. Much has changed over such a short time, as the passing of the MLB trade deadline and several prospect promotions have reshaped many rosters.

Here are some key stats that fantasy baseball managers should be aware of as they continue their journey through the stretch run and into the fantasy playoffs.

Underrated over Overperforming?

Here are the top second half producers who remain available in more than 50% of Yahoo leagues. Some of these players are earning their success, while others have simply been fortunate.

Ty France, 1B, Padres, 37%: France has consistently made excellent contact in the second half (93.6 mph average exit velocity) and has been more than rewarded for his efforts (.381 BABIP). He’s not exactly tearing the cover off the ball, as his 8.9% barrel rate is a standard mark. It’s his lack of soft contact (3.3%) that has been exceptional.

France’s expected stats over this stretch are not special (.267 xBA, .437 xSLG), which makes me inclined to say that this is a veteran who is enjoying a short-term surge. He can be added, but not at the expense of an exciting roster member.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Diamondbacks, 27%: Although he will never revisit his glory days as a first-round fantasy player, Arenado has enjoyed a small resurgence as a member of the Diamondbacks. The 35-year-old has already reached the 20-homer plateau for the first time since 2023 and has logged an OPS over .800 in every month except June. Although he rarely hits the ball hard, he has found a power recipe that is similar to that of José Altuve in recent years, by producing an elite volume of pulled fly balls. His batted-ball tendencies will continue to limit his batting average while boosting his homer total, which makes Arenado a replacement-level option in 12-team leagues with a corner infield lineup spot.

Alec Bohm, 1B/3B, Phillies, 49%: For the second straight season we watched Bohm get off to a slow start (.395 OPS in April) and then look like himself the rest of the way. The 30-year-old has benefited from a .344 BABIP in the second half but also deserves credit for logging a minuscule 11.0% strikeout rate and solid 91.8 mph average exit velocity. Bohm’s post-break expected stats are in line with his actual marks, making him someone who can be counted on down the stretch.

Luis Rengifo, 2B/3B/OF, Padres, 15%: After struggling over 57 games with the Brewers (.534 OPS), Rengifo has excelled over 28 contests with the Padres (.869 OPS). A 132-point BABIP swing over his time with the two clubs is the biggest reason for the performance gap, as Rengifo continues to rarely barrel the baseball with his new team. He’s strictly an option in 15-team leagues.

Jeff McNeil, 1B/2B/OF, Athletics, 10%: McNeil, who has a career high of 10 steals and arrived at the All-Star break with one swipe, has chosen to run the bases aggressively (5 SB) in the second half. His baserunning and terrific batted-ball luck (.385 BABIP) have combined to earn him a spot on this list. McNeil’s roster rate should be around 20%, as he’s playing regularly on an injury-impacted Athletics team and has the contact skills to carry a helpful batting mark. His steals should dry up soon, although the 49-76 Athletics have nothing to lose by allowing him to run.

Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics, 43%: Butler is a poor man’s version of Jazz Chisholm Jr., as someone who can be more valuable in fantasy circles than he is to his real-life team thanks to his tendency to accumulate homers and steals in bunches. He has made that happen in August (5 HR, 3 SB) despite batting .228 with a .770 OPS during the month. Butler has made major improvements to his fly ball rate in the second half (49.3%) and sustaining those changes could keep him on the fantasy radar. He has hit 10 of his 11 homers at his hitter-friendly home park, which should guide fantasy managers to stream him during homestands.

Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds, 18%: Stephenson is absolutely crushing the ball in the second half (93.5 mph average exit velocity, 21.6% barrel rate), which has resulted in an eye-popping .960 OPS. His expected stats support his actual marks, and he is an excellent option for the many fantasy managers who have dealt with a disappointing or injured catcher. Stephenson should be rostered in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Griffin Conine, OF, Marlins, 21%: Conine has demolished the baseball in the second half, posting Aaron Judge-like marks in average exit velocity (95.6 mph) and barrel rate (19.6%). His eye-popping .581 SLG is well-supported by a .588 xSLG. Determining the long-term viability of this late-career (29) breakout is a problem for the offseason. For now, managers who need power should be adding Conine, who is playing against righties and hitting in the heart of the lineup.

Joc Pederson, 1B, Rangers, 9%: I often write about Pederson as a short-term waiver option, as he has the most predictable playing time in baseball. The 34-year-old hits leadoff against right-handers and sits versus southpaws, and in the second half he has done plenty of damage with his opportunities (7 HR, .274 BA). Pederson is someone to stream throughout the second half, but he is a poor option right now, as the Rangers will face plenty of lefties this week.

Willi Castro, 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF, Rockies, 46%: Every fantasy manager can use a player who is eligible at five positions and is swinging a hot bat. Castro will not be impacted by an outfield logjam due to the promotion of Zac Veen, as most of his playing time comes across the infield. The Rockies have the most favorable schedule for hitters down the stretch, as 21 of their final 37 games will take place at Coors Field and nearly half of their road games will be played at hitter-friendly venues.

Brandon Pfaadt, SP/RP, Diamondbacks, 46%: Pfaadt rejoined the rotation on June 30 with a revamped delivery and arsenal, and the results (1.15 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) have been spectacular. There is one major caveat with the right-hander’s success, as his 4.9 K/9 rate over that stretch is an awful mark and it’s extremely rare for a pitcher to have sustained success with so few strikeouts. Pfaadt, who has been the second most valuable starter to this points in the second half, managed to whiff seven batters in his most recent start, which raises hope that he has some upside in that area.

Martin Pérez, SP, Braves, 45%: Aside from inducing plenty of grounders, Pérez, hasn’t done much to earn his helpful second half ratios (2.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). The 35-year-old has logged an unimpressive 13:7 K:BB ratio since the All-Star break while enjoying the benefits of a .253 BABIP. The wheels started coming off on Monday, when he allowed four runs on nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Twins. He’s someone to leave on waivers.

Walbert Ureña, SP, Angels, 45%: Ureña has remained consistent with his strengths and weaknesses. The 22-year-old gets his share of whiffs and induces grounders at an elite rate, which makes up for questionable control skills. His terrific success in the second half (2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) stems primarily from a .235 BABIP, and his season-long 3.28 xERA and 1.25 WHIP are better indicators of his true skills. Still, Ureña deserves to be rostered in at least 60-65% of Yahoo leagues.

Mason Montgomery, SP/RP, Pirates, 12%: While we debated whether incumbent Gregory Soto or deadline acquisition Luke Weaver would emerge as the Pirates closer, Montgomery may have snuck in and stole the job. The southpaw has earned each of two Pittsburgh saves since the August 3 trade deadline, which is part of his terrific second-half performance (1.59 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 18.3 K/9 rate).

I’m not close to declaring Montgomery as the team’s closer, as his most recent save was of the one-out variety and the Pirates have afforded their bullpen with few opportunities by winning just four of their past 13 games. For now, he’s someone to roster when looking for a high-strikeout, low-ratios reliever.

Steamers delight

Finally, for those who need to stream starting pitchers down the stretch, here are the best and worst offenses in the second half.

Top 5 (listed in order from 1-5 — these are the lineups to avoid):

Bottom 10 (listed in order from 21-30 — these are the lineups to target):