We’re about a month into the fresh baseball season, and it’s a good time to start thinking about which players are moving the needle this year. Here’s today’s assignment: what players did I likely have ranked too high or too low back in March’s draft season?
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Maybe four weeks of data won’t offer definitive proof, but we should have a strong enough signal to make some notes and adjustments.
Players I should have ranked higher
SS/OF Oneil Cruz, Pirates
Ironically, Cruz was one of the players I drafted the most in March. But if I knew he had this April ready to go, I would have been sure to land him on all my teams. Cruz is a perfect 12-for-12 on the bases — on the heels of a 15-for-15 binge in the second half of last year — and he’s at new career bests for OBP (.366) and slugging (.548). And his hard-hit profile on Baseball Savant remains a Christmas present, splashed with red everywhere. Cruz is also a volume pick, parked at the top of the Pittsburgh lineup.
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
We knew PCA’s angelic defense would hold his spot in the lineup — he’s probably the best defensive center fielder in baseball right now. But his offense has stepped into the plus category, as he’s bumped his OPS+ by 52 points and started to do damage when he gets his pitch (.527 slugging, five home runs). Crow-Armstrong showed elite speed last year (27-for-30 on steals) so his rate this year (12-for-13) is no surprise; it’s the volume that stuns you. He’s also enjoying life on the Cubs, who have been baseball’s best offense for the opening month.
1B Pete Alonso, Mets
I was open to drafting Alonso in March — I viewed first base as a position to prioritize — but I didn’t get as many shares as I’d like. Life in the New York lineup is pretty good when you have a slot shortly after OBP gods, Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, which easily explains Alonso’s 27 RBI to this point. He’s also been a marvel with his plate discipline, fashioning a BB/K ratio just over 1. If Alonso merely hits his career average (.252) the rest of the way, you have a lovely value.
But what if this is a career year at age 30?
OF Wyatt Langford, Rangers
How can a batter have a .324 average and six home runs and still have just nine RBI? Blame it on Langford’s supporting cast — shockingly, the Rangers have the worst offense through the opening month. Most of Langford’s improvements have been modest in this likely breakout year — mild improvement in walk, strikeout and hard-hit rate — but you like to bet on high-ceiling players when they’re in this type of age pocket (Langford is 23). Here’s hoping some teammates come along for the ride.
1B Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics
Another case of liking the player in March but wishing I had shoved all-in with both hands. After clubbing nine home runs in 61 games last year and flashing the breakout sign, Soderstrom has already hit nine homers this year. And things might get even better, because Soderstrom oddly is off to a .204/.307/.352 slash at home, despite the friendly hitting environment in Sacramento.
RP Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays
I generally want the saves market to come to me on draft day — I don’t like to break the seal with top-tier closers, feeling the opportunity cost is too great. Of course, to make this strategy work, you need to find underrated closing candidates — like Hoffman. His medicals were widely discussed in the winter but he’s looked hale all month, piling up 19 strikeouts against just one walk and collecting two wins and six saves. Easy profit player.
SP Hunter Greene, Reds
His global ADP was just outside 100 when the season started, perhaps the market was not sure how to price in Greene’s glorious 2024 season (2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP). Greene’s bumped his strikeout rate slightly and cut his walk rate more than 50% — he’s going to be in the Cy Young race at this pace. His Savant-suggested ERA (2.85) is only a shade better than his actual number (2.70), offering more validation to this legitimate ace.
Players I should have ranked lower
Note: Injured players will not be considered
OF Yordan Álvarez, Astros
Let’s be fair, no one could have expected a .217/.319/.359 start, and there’s nothing wrong with Alvarez’s plate discipline stats. His hard-hit profile also suggests a bit of bad luck, especially in the slugging column. But this is the worst Houston offense he’s ever been tied to, and you worry about all the lower-body injuries Alvarez has played through in recent years.
RPs Emmanuel Clase, Guardians; Devin Williams, Yankees
It hasn’t been a fun year for the Big Closer market; Williams has already been removed from the ninth inning in New York, though the Yankees would like that demotion to be temporary. Williams has always been a high-walk pitcher even at his most dominant, so we can’t be that surprised with his wildness. He’s struggled to locate both his change and his four-seam fastball.
On Clase, it’s always a little odd when a reliever has high-90s heat but doesn’t maintain an elite strikeout rate. His slump is probably more luck-induced (note that flashing .475 BABIP), but pitchers like him will always be more dependent on batted-ball fortune. And he’s making some of his bad luck, with his hard-hit rate jumping by 6%.
2B Marcus Semien, Rangers
Although Semien’s decline might have started last year (his OPS+ was merely league average), I don’t know how anyone could expect the opening .155/.226/.223 month. His expected batting average is 73 points higher; he’s one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. But Semien hasn’t stolen a base yet and he’s also been dropped in the order; he’s no longer the divine volume play. Maybe this is what a cliff season looks like at age 34.
SP Roki Sasaki, Dodgers
It’s a miracle he has a 3.55 ERA, as his BB/K ratio is almost 1 and his WHIP is a bloated 1.42. The hard-hit data suggests Sasaki has pitched to a 5.47 ERA. He’s only made it to six innings in one of his six starts, which means wins could be elusive even with the loaded LAD lineup supporting him. Maybe I should have priced in more adjustment time to a young player dealing with so many cultural and on-field changes (different ball, different shape of play).
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