Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: The NBA season is too long]
Fact or Fiction: Playoff Scars. The Thunder lack them.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are enjoying one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history, which is remarkable, considering they also entered this campaign as the league’s youngest team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. are shattering championship expectations for the development of a roster on the rise.
With that comes questions about their postseason prowess, as was the case last year, when we warned you about the Thunder’s lack of Playoff Scars (or a team’s number of playoff games and series victories in its previous four years) in comparison to champions past. Having won a single playoff round in 2024, did Oklahoma City develop the requisite battle wounds to more seriously compete for the title this season?
Are the Thunder ready to be champions? (David Butler II-Imagn Images)
(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters)
The short answer: No. The Thunder have played 10 playoff games over the past four seasons, winning only last year’s first-round series sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans. They lost in six games of the second round to Luka Dončić’s Dallas Mavericks, who made the NBA Finals, before the Mavericks traded Dončić.
(Pause for laughter.)
By every other indicator the Thunder are as serious a title threat as there is or ever was. Their net rating (12.8) is higher than any in history other than Michael Jordan’s 72-win 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, a champion. They are on pace to become the seventh team to win 68 games, and four of the other six are champions.
They have won 75% of their games against opponents with winning records and are even better on the road, marks of a great team. Only the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics are within Oklahoma City’s stratosphere by most metrics this season, but one thing separates Boston from the others: Playoff Scars.
Playoff Scars, 2025 Contenders
Among teams with winning records, only the Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets, who have not been in the playoffs since 2019 and 2020, respectively, possess fewer Playoff Scars than the Thunder or Cavaliers.
The Celtics, meanwhile, have even more postseason wounds than they have shown here. Boston’s Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford have each appeared in more playoff games than Oklahoma City’s entire starting lineup combined. Only Tony Parker and Kobe Bryant appeared in more playoff games than Tatum and Brown at their ages. With six conference finals appearances in the past eight seasons and a pair of NBA Finals showings over the previous three years, Boston is among the most battle-tested ever.
OKC pales in comparison to every other champion this century, save for the 2008 Celtics and 2020 Los Angeles Lakers, each of whom had their turnaround aided by the additions of two Hall of Famers.
Take a look at the Playoff Scars (again: a team’s number of playoff games and series wins in its previous four seasons) for every champion since 2003, when the NBA expanded to four best-of-seven rounds …
Playoff Scars, NBA Champions (since 2003)
By this measure the Celtics should be overwhelming favorites to repeat as NBA champions. They have developed as many Playoff Scars over the last four seasons as any champion of the past two decades, save for the 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors, a pair of dynastic teams.
The 2014-15 Warriors are our baseline for a rising juggernaut that broke through to a championship before anyone thought they were ready. They were led by Stephen Curry, a 26-year-old MVP. They featured Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, a pair of 24-year-old future Hall of Famers, who at the time had one All-Star appearance between them. Through “Strength in Numbers,” they won 67 games.
The Thunder boast Gilgeous-Alexander, their 26-year-old MVP favorite. Rising stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, who have one All-Star appearance between them so far, are on the verge of their 23rd and 24th birthdays, respectively. They are deep, and they are on pace to do the 2015 Warriors one win better.
Sixty-eight wins would put these Thunder in rarefied air, among the seven most successful regular seasons in history. The six previous teams to do it all required more Playoff Scars to accomplish the feat.
Playoff Scars, G.O.A.T teams
Oklahoma City can hang its hat on this, evidence that these Thunder are already accomplishing something that their (lack of) Playoff Scars suggested they could not. That they can be this good without the benefit of playoff experience may be all the proof we need that they are prepared for what is to come.
Determination: Fact. Playoff Scars. The Thunder lack them. BUT! But! But … they may not need them.
Read the full article here
