We’ve definitely hit a lull here in the offseason — one where no news is good news as you hope that players and coaches are continuing to make personal preparations for the season while hopefully avoiding pratfalls such as, oh, I don’t know, slipping on ice or something like that.
As such, this is a good time for articles such as the one that ESPN put out here on Monday morning. Bradford Doolittle of ESPN has once again tried to figure out who will be the breakout teams of baseball for this upcoming season and as it turns out, Doolittle has placed the Braves in this list of breakout clubs.
In fact, Doolittle has tabbed the Braves as his top breakout candidate. Based on his own algorithms and simulations that he’s run over the course of the offseason, he’s given the Braves a 59 percent chances of picking up 90 wins during this upcoming season — compared to a baseline of 80 wins for 2026. For comparison’s sake, the Orioles were the No. 2 team in Doolittle’s eyes and he only gave them a 35 percent breakout probability, so he appears to be somewhat confident in Atlanta’s chances to return to form after two-straight disappointing seasons.
Here’s part of Doolittle’s reasoning for Atlanta being primed to bounce back this season (and I highly recommend you go over there and give the entire article a read as well):
Injuries were the primary culprit, though there were certainly some underperformances as well. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider both missed time, as they did in 2024, and when they played they were still working their way back into form. Getting those stars and others, such as Austin Riley and Matt Olson, back to full capacity and/or productivity is the Braves’ best hope for a quick bounce-back. The projections think they have a good chance of getting that. My simulations have the Braves winning 11 more games than their baseline win estimate of 80. In other words, their average projection qualifies them as a breakout team, the only team for which that is the case.
Doolittle mentioned Strider in there but also, my own personal belief is that health among the entire starting rotation should help boost the Braves in 2026. He’s absolutely right about Austin Riley hopefully returning to form after two injury-plagued and other stars like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson continuing to be stars as well but the rotation is key. It’s been mentioned multiple times but Bryce Elder ended up leading the Braves in innings pitched last season. With all due credit to Bryce Elder and his contributions to the team over the past few seasons, having Elder lead your team in innings pitched doesn’t appear conducive to the overall success of a baseball club.
As long as Chris Sale stays healthy and the rest of the rotation follows suit, that alone should give the Braves more of a fighting chance to stay relevant and return to the Postseason conversation during this upcoming season. The team’s depth has been fortified over the course of this offseason as Alex Anthopoulos did a pretty solid job of addressing the team’s needs in the infield, outfield and bullpen as well. Now granted, the team will already start of shorthanded due to Ha-Seong Kim’s icy mishap and I will admit that that doesn’t engender a lot of confidence about this team finally evading the injury bug for the first time since 2023.
However, if Ha-Seong Kim’s injury is simply the injury bug’s last hurrah before a healthy season on the field for the Braves, then things should be better based off that alone. It’s January — why not be a little optimistic? This projection from ESPN is optimistic for Atlanta’s chances in 2026 and as always, all we ca do is hope for the best in order to see those projections play out as planned so that the Braves can finally bounce back after a couple of years in the wilderness. We’ll see what happens.
Read the full article here