Saquon Barkley’s debut run with the Philadelphia Eagles was an all-timer, worthy of being in the discussion for the greatest single-season campaign of any running back in NFL history.
As for the encore in 2025? Mike Clay, the well-known prognosticator and analyst for ESPN, predicts Barkley’s reign as the NFL’s rushing leader will be a surprising one-and-done.
Clay recently released his expansive 2025 NFL projections for all 32 teams, and he has Barkley finishing second to a somewhat forgotten superstar running back not named Derrick Henry.
Clay predicts 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts will return to the top spot in 2025, followed by Barkley and Henry in the top three.
Taylor has battled through a number of injuries in recent seasons but rebounded for a productive 2024 campaign. In just 14 games, he rushed for 1,431 yards and 11 touchdowns. Taylor was one of only three backs to average over 100 rushing yards per game (Barkley and Henry were the others), and the 26-year-old finished the season on an absolute tear, rushing for 627 yards and six touchdowns over Indy’s final four games.
Barkley won last year’s rushing title with 2,005 yards, as head coach Nick Sirianni famously pulled him after he crested the 2,000-yard mark during Philly’s Week 17 game vs. the Cowboys. Barkley was then rested in Week 18 against the New York Giants sitting exactly 100 yards shy of Dickerson’s all-time single-season record of 2,105.
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The only notable changes for the Eagles’ offense this coming season will be a new starting right guard and play caller. Mekhi Becton left for the Los Angeles Chargers in free agency, leaving the likes of Tyler Steen, 2024 fifth-rounder Trevor Keegan, rookie Drew Kendall and new addition Kenyon Green battling for reps in training camp. Kevin Pattulo, Sirianni’s longtime passing game coordinator, will take over play-calling duties after Kellen Moore left this offseason to become head coach of the New Orleans Saints.
The key here is volume, as Clay expects the Eagles to significantly reduce Barkley’s workload. For Barkley, he projects 283 carries — down from 345 during the 2024 regular season — for 1,367 yards and 10 touchdowns, with another 328 yards and two scores as a receiver.
Clay projects Taylor to receive higher volume than Barkley with 301 total attempts, with Henry handling 270 carries for Baltimore. It’s worth noting that Clay’s running back projections are over 14 games to account for injuries and other factors that impact regular playing time.
Barkley may have had the best chance at catching Dickerson in 2024 than any running back over the next 5-to-10 years. Instead, he ended up with a Super Bowl ring and record-breaking contract extension.
Now entering his age-28 season, with 887 total carries over the last three years (a career high by far), Barkley’s most likely done chasing Dickerson. We’ll just have to see what kind of an encore he and the Eagles have in store for 2025.
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