Dodgers sign Tanner Scott to $72 million contract: Fantasy fallout, risks and reward of 30-year-old reliever

You didn’t think the Dodgers were done, did you?

Just a few days after adding Roki Sasaki among a slew of other moves this offseason, Los Angeles made a significant addition to bolster their bullpen Sunday morning.

Let’s take a look at what Scott brings to the Dodgers, and his potential fantasy upside for the 2025 campaign.

What did Scott do the last two years to make him so coveted?

A few seasons ago, Scott getting this kind of contract would be almost impossible to imagine. A sixth-round pick in 2014 out of Howard College in Texas by the Orioles, the left-hander made 237 appearances for the Orioles from 2017-2021 with a 4.73 ERA, and while there were things to like — more on that in a second — there wasn’t much reason to believe that he was on his way to becoming an elite option.

And yet, that’s exactly what he’s been over the last two years. Scott joined Miami in 2022 in a trade just before the start of the season, and after a pedestrian season with the Fish that saw him procure a 4.37 ERA, but he saved 20 games while striking out 90 hitters in just under 65 innings. The big jump came in 2023, however, and over the last two seasons Scott has struck out 188 batters in 150 innings, saved 34 games and posted a miniscule 2.04 ERA in the process. That save total is hurt by a move to San Diego last summer where he worked as a set-up man rather than a stopper, but a 2.23 ERA and 31/9 K/BB shows that he was doing quality work in the Gaslamp District.

Simplified, Scott has gone from hard-throwing reliever you can’t trust to one of the best high-leverage arms in the sport, and it’s no surprise that so many teams were attempting to add him to their bullpen.

What are the strengths of Scott’s profile?

Scott has always thrown hard. Really, really hard. He averaged 97 mph with his fastball in 2024, and that offering will routinely get into triple digits. He complements that pitch with a slider, and he has nearly an even 60/40 split between the two offerings. He also threw exactly one change up last year, and it didn’t go very well.

But, to say the fastball/slider combination gives hitters trouble is quite the understatement. Batter hit just .134 against his four-seamer last year, and he allowed just four extra-base hits in 162 plate appearances against the offering; “good” for a .179 slugging percentage. The league was able to have more success against his slider when they put the ball into play, but they didn’t do it very often. Scott generated a 38.8 percent whiff rate on the pitch, and hitters struck out 37 times in 128 plate appearances against it.

So with those numbers, it shouldn’t surprise you that Scott’s rank in almost every category — with one big exception — registered by Baseball Savant. He was the best in the sport in average exit velocity allowed at just 84.3 mph. He was just behind that number in the 99th percentile in hard-hit percentage at 27.3 percent. He also ranked in the 90th percentile or better in expected ERA, expected batting average, whiff percentage, and barrel rate; and was just below that in the strikeout percentage and chase rate.

What is that one category that Scott has struggled with?

Scott’s stuff is elite. Elite seems almost like an insult. But what isn’t elite is his control.

In 2024, Scott walked 36 batters in his 72 innings, or essentially one free pass every other inning. That gave him a walk rate of 12.2 percent last summer, and that ranked in the bottom seventh percentile of all qualified hurlers. His only year where he ranked below 10 percent was 2023 (7.8 percent), and that’s a lot of self-inflicted damage. Even when you have two pitches that hitters can’t square up — or even make contact with — there are going to be days where Scott is much more of a detriment than an asset in categories like WHIP. It’s the only thing that can keep him from being one of the best options in the late innings in the sport, assuming the stuff doesn’t degrade substantially over the coming years, of course.

What will Scott’s role with the Dodgers be?

This, of course, is the biggest question. Most would assume that a team giving a reliever $18 million a year would have him automatically in the closing role. Most teams aren’t the Dodgers, however, and it’s not an absolute foregone conclusion that he’ll be used primarily in the ninth inning. Los Angeles also has Blake Treinen, who was effective in his closing role while helping the Dodgers win the World Series, and Michael Kopech, with Kopech showing real flashes of brilliance as well.

Having said that, it sure seems likely that Scott is going to get the majority of save chances with Los Angeles in 2025. There may be some scenario where the Dodgers turn to the southpaw to face the heart of the order in the seventh or eighth inning — and that will assuredly frustrate fantasy players — but there should be enough save chances for him to be called the closer to begin the 2025 campaign.

Where does Scott rank among relievers to open the year?

It was difficult to not be optimistic about Scott’s fantasy upside prior to signing with the Dodgers, but there’s simply no denying that his stock goes up considerably with this move. The concerns are obvious and hopefully laid out well in the paragraphs above: Scott has significant control issues that will hurt fantasy players in the WHIP category, and the Dodgers’ bevy of talented relievers make him a “risk” to be in the 20-30 save range than among the league leaders.

That being said, when you’re able to miss bats like Scott is and initiate weak contact as well — if not better — than any pitcher in relief, those risks are well worth the potential reward. The fact that Dodgers seem like a lock to win 95-plus games obviously doesn’t hurt, either, and even if Treinen, Kopech and possibly Evan Phillips steal a save chance or two every week, there should be ample opportunities for Scott to load up on saves with a low ERA and high strikeout rate.

You probably aren’t drafting Scott as the first reliever off the board, but he now belongs in the conversation with that next group of bullpen arms. That may seem hyperbolic, but that’s how good this situation is. Potentially, anyway.