HOUSTON — It is a straightforward question, the one asked most by Mets fans at the beginning of this promising season: folks want to know if the starting rotation is good enough.
Or, more pointedly, they want to know why the Mets did not do more to build a name-brand rotation after investing so heavily in a top offense. Clay Holmes on Opening Day, they say. Griffin Canning in Game 3. Really?
It’s a fair question — and it’s not just the usual internet knuckle draggers asking. It’s legitimate baseball people, like the longtime major league scout who told me simply this week that “the Mets don’t have enough pitching.”
The Mets themselves disagree. Strongly. And they’re not stupid. So what gives?
On our SNY shows and in conversation, I’ve handled this question by saying that one has to assume that president of baseball operations David Stearns and his people know what they are doing. Stearns made his reputation running the Brewers as a guy who oversaw the acquisition and development of great pitching.
Those are my words, though, not Stearns’. On Saturday evening, standing in the Mets’ dugout in Houston, I asked the man himself how he would answer this oft-posited challenge to his offseason work.
Here’s how I worded the question: “Why is this rotation, which does not look like a championship-caliber rotation to the untrained eye, something that you guys feel good about?”
Worth asking, right?
What Stearns said:
“We think we have really talented pitchers,” he said. “And it’s the talented pitchers that are in our rotation right now. It’s the talented pitchers who are presently on the IL and it’s the talented pitchers who may be in the rotation later in the year.
“A lot of what we try to guard against over the course of the season is what you can’t predict, right? You can’t predict things like injuries. You can’t predict things like underperformance. You also can’t predict breakouts, and if you lock yourself in with no flexibility, you also don’t have the opportunity to take advantage of breakouts.
“The notion of a championship-caliber rotation, I think, is one that is worthy of discussion. I think if we look at the actual champions of baseball over the last however long you want to look at — decades, 15 years, 20 years, some of them might have the Hall of Famer at the front end of the rotation, and some of them have guys who signed one-year deals and were traded midseason and all of a sudden got on the heater in September and October, and a team rode them to a World Series championship. Teams can be built in a variety of different ways. And I think successful rotations can be built in a variety of different ways.
“The last thing I’ll say is like the long-term, successful rotation depends upon our ability to develop really quality starters, right? And that is what we are aiming to do. That is what the continuously successful teams at this level do, and really, that is where our focus is.”
I then asked Stearns if he thought of pitching more in terms of staff than rotation.
“I think certainly in the playoffs, you do, but in building your opening day staff, you do need — especially as MLB has cracked down on the number of pitchers and has cracked down on the roster movement we can do in season — you do need some length out of your rotation.
“I don’t think it needs to be seven innings every night, but you do need some length out of your rotation and or if not, you will go through your bullpen, you’ll pay the price at some point later in the year. So I don’t discount all the importance of starting pitching. In fact, I think starting pitching is really important.”
Some additional thoughts:
What I heard there were three basic elements:
1) Confidence in the pitchers who the Mets chose and the people who chose them — Canning, Holmes, Paul Blackburn etc.
2) A desire to develop aces from within, and maintain flexibility to allow for top pitching prospects to potentially contribute later this year.
3) A related desire to keep a lane open for trade acquisitions. I strongly expect the Mets to be in on Dylan Cease and Michael King, if the Padres make them available this summer, and any other rotation rentals. They are too well-resourced and ambitious to have a passive trade deadline.
Stearns has certainly earned credibility from his time with the Brewers, when the team developed starters Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff, along with a slew of top relievers. Now with the Mets, he is operating with new budget parameters and can not only oversee the ascent of homegrown pitchers, but sign them to contract extensions rather than lose them to free agency.
We can trust that when the Mets’ front office hones in on a Blackburn at the trade deadline or a Canning in free agency, they see an element that excites them. It might be a plus pitch that has just started to click. It might be a potential adjustment in their delivery that, if implemented correctly by ace pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, could unlock a level of dominance.
The Mets know they will not hit on every acquisition; the $34 million ticketed for Frankie Montas’ bank account is not looking great at the moment. But when the team chooses a pitcher who seems random to us, it is always because of a specific quality or qualities that make that pitcher stand out.
Finally: did you notice when Stearns seemed to gently challenge the premise baked into my question about a “championship-caliber rotation,” and posited that champions assume many different shapes and structures?
To his point, the mighty Dodgers operated last October with Jack Flaherty at the top of their rotation. Flaherty is a talented pitcher, but he was a trade deadline acquisition pitching on a one-year deal after posting a 4.99 ERA the year before.
This was not how the Dodgers wanted to draw it up, or how they are attempting to draw it up this year, but it worked in 2024.
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