Head coaches in the NFL tend to develop a personal identity. It can be their coaching style or the fact that they choose to wear sweatshirts even in early September.
For Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell, he is a combination of a quote machine and known for going for it on fourth down.
Football is largely a game of analytics with mathematical formulas that can help determine if a team should go for it. Whether or not the data says jump, Campbell’s default response always seems to be “how high?”
Let’s take a look at how Campbell has done on fourth down so far with the Lions.
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Dan Campbell 4th down conversion rates
Campbell was hired to be the Lions head coach in 2021. In his first season, the team went 3-13-1 and finished in last place in the NFC North. Campbell led Detroit to a 9-8 record in year two, then a 12-5 record last year with the Lions winning the NFC North for the first time since 1993.
Overall, Campbell has earned a 30-27-1 record over his four seasons in Detroit. While he looks like the head coach the Lions faithful have been waiting for, it’s his aggressive coaching style that has won over fans. Sure, they aren’t successful every time, but at the rate that the Lions are successful, it is mostly forgiven and seen as a positive.
There are times when Campbell elects to go for two when it seems like kicking the extra point is the move, but his aggressive coaching style typically manifests in his going for it on fourth down.
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4th down
Since Campbell has taken over as the head coach, Detroit has gone for it on fourth down 133 times. This leads the NFL with the Cleveland Browns (126) and Carolina Panthers (124) trailing them.
Of the 133 fourth-down plays, 70 have resulted in a first down and 11 have been for a touchdown. The Lions’ 52.6 percent conversion rate on fourth down into either a first down or a touchdown ranks 17th overall, but it ranks fourth among teams with at least 100 fourth down attempts over the last four seasons.
This season, Detroit has gone for it on fourth down 10 times. The Panthers and Browns are tied for the league lead at 18 and the Lions have the 17th most fourth-down attempts. Of Detroit’s six wins, three have been dominant blowouts so they haven’t had to go for it on fourth as much. Still, they’ve converted five of their attempts into first downs.
Three of the fourth down attempts have been in Detroit’s own territory. Two came in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Lions converted both. One was a three-yard run by David Montgomery when it was fourth and two. The other was a 17-yard pass by punter Jack Fox when they needed 12 yards.
Detroit went for it on fourth and seven against the Minnesota Vikings in the first quarter on their own 33-yard line but didn’t convert it.
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