Could Ducati have won the MotoGP Australian GP?

Aprilia had by far the fastest bike at Phillip Island and deservedly won the Australian Grand Prix. There’s no debate about that.

But at the previous round in Indonesia, its star rider Marco Bezzecchi arguably had an even bigger advantage over its rivals, and yet Ducati came out on top thanks to Gresini rookie Fermin Aldeguer. Could Ducati have repeated that success in Australia, with Bezzecchi on the back foot from the start of the weekend after being penalised for crashing into Marc Marquez at Mandalika? 

Like in Indonesia, Ducati was mysteriously off the pace this time as well. For the first time since 2020, it failed to qualify on the front row, while it also missed out on a sprint podium for the first time since the format’s introduction in 2023. However, just as Aldeguer stood out from the rest of the contingent in Indonesia, Ducati again had a potential victory contender in Australia: Fabio Di Giannantonio.

With Marquez out of action and Bagnaia still suffering from a mysterious lack of pace, Di Giannantonio was essentially Ducati’s lone horse on the GP25. He finished a solid third in Friday practice, behind Aprilia duo Bezzecchi and Fernandez, but it was his long-run pace that impressed most, prompting Gresini’s Alex Marquez to label him the favourite for victory on Sunday.

However, the Italian’s weekend was undone in qualifying when he couldn’t improve his time on his second run, stating it “was really risky making laps” in the final minutes of the session.

“I thought that I was supposed to make [a lap time of] 1m26s something,” he explained. “But then on the second run, I was giving my life for risking everything, and things were happening, let’s say. So, it was not possible.”

This meant that he could only manage 10th place in qualifying, leaving him with a mountain to climb in the two races.

On Saturday, he finished a solid fifth, but it was in the grand prix where he really shone, finishing second and just 1.4s behind Fernandez.

Di Giannantonio was already up to fifth place when Bezzecchi served the second of his long lap penalties, and he continued to ascend up the order, reeling in the struggling Fabio Quartararo before claiming third place from Pedro Acosta on lap 19.

Four laps later, he found a way past Alex Marquez to become the highest-running Ducati rider, an impressive feat given his starting position.

By this point, Fernandez had disappeared into the distance, but the incredible charge left even Di Giannantonio to wonder what could have been had he qualified near the front of the grid.

“We did an amazing job last week in preparation for this weekend because the team did a lot of analysis and study, and understood what could be the best package for us to race here. That was the key to making this kind of performance,” he explained.

“A bittersweet feeling because we know that we ruined a little bit of our chances to make a possible podium or a win after qualifying, but it was out of our control. For sure, the fever didn’t help at all.”

Australian GP – Race pace comparison

Fernandez’s winning margin would likely have been even larger had he not experienced a tear-off scare and a tyre drop-off late in the race. He held a 3.1-second lead just four laps from the finish.

This makes it difficult to draw conclusions from Fernandez’s final laps, but Di Giannantonio’s ability to preserve his tyres and maintain consistent lap times in the mid-to-high 1m28s was impressive. While chasing Marquez for second, he even clocked 1m28.114s on lap 21 of 27 – only about a tenth off his personal best of the race.

By comparison, Bezzecchi set 1m28.078s on lap 24, showing the VR46 rider was operating in nearly the same pace bracket as the Aprilia star.

It’s impossible to know how the race might have unfolded had Di Giannantonio started on the first two rows. Fernandez would almost certainly have raced differently if a Ducati had been running immediately behind him.

What’s clear, however, is that unlike in Indonesia, Aprilia did not waste the opportunity presented to it. On that previous occasion, Fernandez lost time in traffic and dropped down the order after contact with Honda’s Luca Marini. This time, he quickly passed Acosta and extended a lead he would not relinquish.

Ducati, meanwhile, was not in a position to capitalise at the start. None of its riders qualified inside the top five, with the highest-placed Ducati, Alex Marquez, starting sixth.

Had Di Giannantonio secured a stronger qualifying, Fernandez may still have won the race, but it almost certainly would not have been a straightforward victory for Aprilia.

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– The Autosport.com Team