The NFL playoff picture is getting much clearer as Week 16 comes to a close — and that includes the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The 14-1 Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West division title, and they have a chance to lock up the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC in Week 17. Kansas City has two regular-season games remaining — road games against the Steelers and the Broncos.
Let’s run through what the one-loss Chiefs need to have happen to clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
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Chiefs playoff picture
At 14-1, Kansas City is sit atop the AFC West. The Chiefs are in front of both the Chargers and Broncos, who are both 9-6 on the season.
The Chiefs also have the best record in the entire AFC, in front of the Bills, who are 12-3. But thanks to Buffalo’s 30-21 victory over the Chiefs on Nov. 17, the Bills still have a slim chance to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
According to ESPN, the Chiefs have a 91% chance of earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Here’s what Kansas City has to either do or have happen to clinch the No. 1 overall seed.
Chiefs clinching scenarios
If Kansas City wins the No. 1 overall seed, the Chiefs will earn home-field advantage for the playoffs as well as a first-round bye. The Chiefs can clinch with the following scenarios:
- A win over Pittsburgh in Week 17, OR
- A win over Denver in Week 17, OR
- A Bills loss to one of their remaining opponents (Jets or Patriots)
POWER RANKINGS: Lions, Vikings rise; Eagles, Steelers take a fall
Chiefs remaining schedule
|
Week |
Opponent |
Opponent Record |
|
17 |
at Steelers |
10-5 |
|
18 |
at Broncos |
9-6 |
Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite against the Steelers, and ESPN gives the Chiefs a 55.6% chance to win. Against the Broncos, ESPN has Kansas City with a 61.7% chance to win against the Broncos. The toughest game is obviously the Steelers this week, as Pittsburgh hasn’t lost a game at home this season since losing to the Cowboys in early October.
Bills remaining schedule
|
Week |
Opponent |
Opponent Record |
|
17 |
vs.. Jets |
4-11 |
|
18 |
at Patriots |
3-12 |
Buffalo has a pretty easy schedule remaining, as both the Jets and Patriots are well below .500. Buffalo is a 10-point favorite against New York, and ESPN Analytics gives the Bills a 72.4% chance to win. Against the Patriots, Buffalo has a 74.1% chance to win.
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