Celtics Mailbag: How will Porzingis’ return impact the rotation?

Celtics Mailbag: How will Porzingis’ return impact the rotation? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Kristaps Porzingis’ surprise return Monday night answered the most popular question to start the Celtics’ 2024-25 season, and if anyone questioned Boston as the favorite to repeat, they may have gotten a pretty firm answer there, too.

But Porzingis’ return does create a new series of questions about how his presence will impact the team on the court, as well the roster usage moving forward.

Those queries headline our latest installment of the Celtics Mailbag:

With KP’s return will we see the rotation shrink? Less Luke Kornet/ Neemias Queta minutes, or manage Al Horford minutes? — @HevD32 on X

Which of these 3 should get DNP-CD’s as we stagger Horford and KP for the remainder of the year? Xavier Tillman Sr., Luke Kornet, or Neemias Queta. — @trillklinton on X

It’s funny to me how quickly the conversation shifts from: “Do the Celtics need to trade for another big man?!” to “How can they possibly play all these bigs!?”

The Celtics are pretty fortunate to have the big-man depth they possess, and while I do think it gets tougher for some of these depth pieces to see consistent floor time, there will be opportunity for all of them throughout the regular-season grind.

Here are a couple scenarios to watch for:

Playoff rotation games: We’ve seen Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla crunch to eight-man rotations in some of this season’s marquee games, including Sunday’s visit from the Minnesota Timberwolves and last week’s showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers. On these nights, if Boston is at full health, two of those three depth pieces are almost certainly getting DNP’d, and maybe all three if Boston doesn’t need spot minutes from another backup big.

Back-to-back games: Even with Porzingis’ return, the Celtics’ schedule has some busy stretches, particularly in January. But Boston also plays five games in seven nights to start December, which is bookended by two back-to-backs.

Presumably, Porzingis and Horford will stagger their rest days — though it will be interesting to see if Boston trots both bigs out for that visit to Cleveland on Sunday — and that’s naturally going to create greater opportunity for Kornet, Queta, and Tillman. Some of the choices on those nights could be matchup-dependent.

One thing we’re curious to see: With Porzingis back, would the Celtics still elevate Horford to the starting role on nights that KP doesn’t play, or will they spot-start someone like Kornet or Queta in order to maintain the continuity of Horford’s long-term role?

It gets undeniably harder to play even two of those players on nights when the Celtics have all their top eight available. The season is still long, though. There will be other ailments (hopefully minor), and everyone will get a chance along the way.

Credit to Queta, who, after earning a DNP in that Timberwolves game, seemed to really bring the intensity and focus against the Clippers while backing up Porzingis. That might have been Queta’s best all-around night, as he piled up 12 points, nine rebounds, four blocks and three assists as a +29 over 25:17 of playing time. If he plays like that, they’ll find time for him to be on the court.

Curious if we start to see a slight dip in Payton Pritchard’s minutes with Porzingis back in the lineup? PP is currently playing the sixth-most minutes on the team with 27.3 per game. — @CelticsFiles on X

Pritchard was at 22.3 minutes per game last season. We crunched the splits, and that number was 21.3 minutes in 57 games with Porzingis compared to 24.4 minutes in the 25 contests without him. So it seems fair to expect maybe a slight downturn.

That said, Pritchard has earned the right to log 25+ minutes per game with his play. Particularly as the Celtics tread cautiously with their bigs, I think there’s still ample opportunity for him to stick north of that mark. You can also manufacture more time for bench guys if the starters more consistently dominate their minutes.

Are the Cs in a position to make any trades, and are there any they should consider? — @bpothier on X

Let’s start with a bit of housekeeping: Kornet, Queta, and Tillman all become trade eligible on December 15. Sam Hauser, after inking an offseason extension, joins that trade-eligible mix on January 21. Technically, Derrick White is trade eligible in January, too, but he’s not going anywhere. We should also note that Kornet can technically veto any trade after signing a one-year deal at a minimum salary.

I don’t think the Celtics are going to mess with their chemistry and cohesion with an opportunity to chase a second title. Heck, it’s hard to envision any moves that make sense for Boston, particularly with the restrictions they face with the second-apron status. Tougher decisions about the long-term look of this roster can wait until the summer.

The one question we’ve had is with Jaden Springer. The 22-year-old guard carries a $4 million cap hit, which is the eighth-highest salary on the team. Given his limited on-court role, the Celtics would have to be all-in on his development in order to carry a contract that essentially costs $16 million after tax penalties. Springer will be a restricted free agent after the season.

Given the cost of the roster, maybe it’s not a big deal to stomach Springer’s deal. But he is also one of the few trade chips that could bring back something beyond minimum value at the deadline. Remember, the Celtics cannot aggregate contracts in a trade as a second-apron team.

If the Celtics are healthy, it’s hard to see an obvious area of need. That could change before February, but we wouldn’t be surprised if this is one of Brad Stevens’ quieter deadlines given the priority on keeping this team largely intact.

Should we expect the Celtics’ defense in the paint, and on the offensive end, to get better now with KP’s return, or is it a bigger issue we’re not seeing? — @JSmall3269 on X

Stealing from our Porzingis story from Tuesday: Boston ranked 24th in the NBA while allowing opponents to shoot 65.6 percent inside five feet in its 17 games this season without Porzingis. That number plummeted to 51.5 percent in Porzingis’ debut against the Clippers. Boston is able to gamble more with Porzingis on the back line, and that manifested itself in a combined 21 steals and blocks, the team’s second highest “stock” output of the season.

Points in the paint are still an obvious issue for Boston — the Clippers won that battle 58-46 on Monday night — but we’ll continue to scream from a mountaintop that it’s far more important for Boston to limit 3-point output than stress too much about interior scoring.

Yes, it’s an issue, and one that should improve with Porzingis’ return. But the Celtics are forever going to be OK with giving up 2s instead of 3s while forcing opponents to deal with the math problem that Boston’s own 3-point barrage presents.

The Celtics ranked ninth in opponent points in the paint last season (47.7). They are 26th at the moment (53.2). Let’s see what a month with a healthy KP does to that number. But clearly Boston is doing just fine, even with the spike.

What’s your favorite ShotCreator find so far? — (OK, I made this question up on my own)

We’re nerds for new NBA stat sites, and ShotCreator.com is a fantastic addition to the landscape, particularly with the seamless video integration that makes the NBA’s own archive look like it’s stuck in the Geocities days.

Our favorite stat from poking around the last few days: Derrick White is shooting 78.9 percent on all shots between 8-16 feet this season. That includes shooting 7-of-9 on all floaters, confirming our suspicion that he’s been near-perfect with that long floater this season (and somehow he’s only 9-of-16, 56.2 percent on all floaters inside 8 feet).

Click HERE to watch all of White’s long-range floaters.