Can Crawford’s ‘Gimmickry’ Defeat Canelo? Arum’s Stance-Switching Theory Challenged by Crawford’s Recent Performance

Promoter Bob Arum says Terence Crawford’s ability to switch hit will “befuddle” Canelo Alvarez in September, and he predicts that his former fighter will defeat the Mexican superstar.

Stance Switch Strategy

Arum believes that changing stances is all Bud needs to defeat Alvarez (62-2-2, 39 KOs). If Crawford is banking on winning by changing stances all night, he could fool himself. This isn’t David Avanesyan or Jeff Horn that he’s facing.

It might require more than Terence changing stances to defeat Canelo because that stuff didn’t work well for the Nebraska native in his last fight against Israil Madrimov. He was getting lit up switching from southpaw to orthodox. Madrimov nailed him with hands repeatedly from either stance, and he looked like he couldn’t miss with that right.

“I like Crawford in that fight. I think he’s a better talent, better athlete, better boxer, and I just think he’s going to win that fight,” said promoter Bob Arum to Sean Zittel, predicting Terence Crawford will defeat WBA, WBC, and WBO super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez if they fight on September 13th.

Arum might be sentimental towards Crawford because he was his baby from the start of his career, fighting with Top Rank until 2021. For Arum to talk down a fighter that spent 13 years with his company, it would seem weird. Crawford was family with Top Rank and would still likely be with them if he didn’t go the free-agent route after his win over Shawn Porter in 2021. Interestingly, Crawford has fought only three times since leaving Arum, beating David Avanesyan, Errol Spence, and Israil Madrimov.

He should have fought a lot more than three times in the four years since leaving Top Rank, but that reflects a lack of ambition. That inactivity is going to turn around and bite Crawford on the backside against Canelo because you can’t be a small, part-time fighter at 38 and expect to defeat a fighter of that caliber.

The Arum Forecast

“Once it was announced, I felt Crawford would win. I told him, ‘It’s a great fight for you. You’re going to win that fight.’ I don’t think he’s going to put on that kind of weight,” said Arum when asked if the extra weight Terence puts on will slow him down against Alvarez.

Arum may not have followed Crawford lately, but he looks like he’s packed on a good 20 lbs power-feeding and hitting the weights. He still has five months to continue bulking up before his fight against Alvarez in September, and he’ll likely be well into the 190s by then. He already looks nothing like the slim, agile fighter he was two years ago when he picked up his best-career win against Errol Spence on July 29, 2023.

“Also, Crawford has a rare ability of being ambidextrous and switching from southpaw to orthodox as the fight goes on. That’s going to befuddle Canelo. Like most fighters, he’s not dealt with that kind of opponent. I think that’s what made it such an easy fight with Spence. He was totally befuddled,” said Arum.

Canelo has fought many fighters who can switch stances during the 20 years that he’s fought as a pro. It will require much more from Terence to defeat Canelo by using his gimmickry, like changing stances. It worked on Errol Spence because he’s lost so much from his game from that car crash in 2019, and it looked like he wasn’t physically or mentally present when he fought Crawford in 2023. It was Spence functioning at 25% capacity.

“A fighter when he trains generally trains for a southpaw or an orthodox in sparring,” said Arum. “Now, if you’re fighting a guy that goes seamlessly from southpaw to orthodox and is equally effective, how do you train for that? It’s difficult. You don’t get sparring partners that can do both. There’s not many around.

“Crawford because he’s a unique kind of fighter that other fighters haven’t seen, and the ability that he has to switch, fighters aren’t used to that. They don’t train for that,” said Arum when asked who wins in a fight between Crawford and a prime Floyd Mayweather Jr. “I just think that Crawford is a very, very unique talent.

“That has nothing to do with his ability as a fighter. Maybe his ability as a litigator, I can say things. But as a fighter, he’s a unique superior guy,” said Arum.

Madrimov Concerns

Crawford will need to raise his game considerably from his last performance against Israil Madrimov on August 3rd last year for him to defeat Canelo because that fight was essentially a draw. He was facing a very good fighter who out-punched him and outboxed him in the first nine rounds before gassing out. Against Canelo, Crawford is facing a bigger puncher, who will make him pay if he tries to fight aggressively.

Based on some of the things that Bud and his trainer, Brian ‘BoMac’ McIntyre, have been saying in interviews, they’re going to focus on boxing Canelo, staying out of range, and tying him up when he’s close enough to land his big power shots.