The Oklahoma City Thunder finally arrived as an NBA powerhouse with a championship run in 2025, defeating the Indiana Pacers in seven games in the NBA Finals. This year, they look equally dominant – and they are gaining plenty of respect from sportsbooks as a result. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Thunder as +130 to win their second consecutive title, -135 to win the Western Conference, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as +135 to be NBA Finals MVP. But is the market respect deserving? Using FTN’s NBA StatsHub, we can take a deeper look at Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, and whether the Spurs, Nuggets, or another team out west has a chance to dethrone them.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has put up strong numbers since coming back from an oblique injury that sidelined him through the All-Star break – averaging 30.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists. That said, the underlying metrics suggest that his recent production has been more volume-driven, rather than efficient. Overall, this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has a 7.3% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation, which ranks third among players averaging 30-plus minutes per game. His +3.0 Points Over Expectation trails only Nikola Jokić, Kevin Durant and Luka Dončić. Since returning from injury, Gilgeous-Alexander has a -2.5% FGOE and -1.4 PTOE. The scary thing? Oklahoma City is 5-0 during that span, with wins over the Nuggets (twice) and the Knicks – both of which are widely regarded as teams that could make a deep playoff run.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Through the close of play Tuesday, Oklahoma City (+9.5) leads the NBA in FTN’s Model Team Ratings. They are 3.2 points better than the next-best team in the Western Conference – the San Antonio Spurs.
Similar to last year, their dominance has been driven primarily by a defense that is significantly better than any other team in the NBA. During the 2024-2025 campaign, the Thunder finished the regular season with a 106.6 defensive rating. The next-best team was the Orlando Magic, a distant second with a 109.1 defensive rating. This season, Oklahoma City once again leads the league in defensive rating (106.2), despite having to navigate injuries to some of their best defensive players. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein are four of the team’s top defenders, per our FTN Player Ratings – they have all missed 10-plus games.
Put another away, the Thunder have decisively been the best team in the NBA this season by most advanced metrics, despite not having their core contributors available for a considerable portion of their games.
Thunder, or the field?
All of that said, is there any realistic probability that another team – perhaps the Spurs or Nuggets, could dethrone the Thunder in the Western Conference? San Antonio is the only non-Thunder team in the Western Conference that ranks in the top-five in our FTN’s Model Team Ratings. They are also the only team that has proven capable of causing matchup issues for the Thunder this year. The Spurs have played the Thunder four times this year, winning three times – twice by convincing margins:
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Dec. 13: Spurs defeated Thunder 111-109
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Dec. 23: Spurs defeated Thunder 130-110
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Dec. 25: Spurs defeated Thunder 117-102
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Jan. 13: Thunder defeated Spurs 119-98
The Nuggets have struggled in their head-to-head meetings this season:
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Feb. 1: Thunder defeated Nuggets 121-111
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Feb. 27: Thunder defeated Nuggets 127-121
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March 9: Thunder defeated Nuggets 129-126
Denver has struggled in general lately, too, which isn’t a great sign as the postseason draws near. Since Nikola Jokić returned from injury Jan. 30, the Nuggets are 7-10 overall, ranking 15th in Net Rating. They have suffered losses against the Clippers and Warriors in that span – fringe playoff teams. They have also struggled against the Jazz and Grizzlies, a pair of teams that are aggressively participating in this year’s NBA tankathon.
The Takeaway
If ranking the top teams in the NBA with a month remaining in the regular season, there is an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Thunder are in their own tier at the top of the league. In the Western Conference, in particular, Oklahoma City has a sizable lead over San Antonio and Denver in FTN’s Model Team Ratings – and that’s with the Thunder missing a number of their core pieces for significant periods of time. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t looked as good post-injury, in terms of (FGOE) and (PTOE), as he did pre-injury, but the Thunder have still been dominant with a slightly less efficient version of their best player. Right now, it’s the Thunder, followed by a big gap, then everybody else.
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