It’s been a long, winding road to the final weeks of the regular season for the Buccaneers, but Baker Mayfield & Co. are positioned better than anyone in the NFC South entering Week 16.
A surprisingly strong start to the season for Tampa Bay was erased by a rough patch in the middle of the schedule, with the team hampered by injuries to both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But with Evans back in the fold, Tampa Bay’s offense is red hot again.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 16
The Buccaneers rallied in the second half to hang 40 points on the Chargers in Week 15, and a division title is within their grasp.
The Falcons are hoping quarterback change from veteran Kirk Cousins to rookie Michael Penix Jr. will turn momentum their way in the NFC South race. But all the Buccaneers have to do is take care of their own business, regardless of what Atlanta does the rest of the way.
Here’s a look at the Buccaneers’ updated playoff chances and when they can punch their ticket.
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Buccaneers playoff picture
NFC South standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
| 1 | Buccaneers | 8-6 |
| 2 | Falcons | 7-7 |
| 3 | Saints | 5-9 |
| 4 | Panthers | 3-11 |
The Buccaneers lead the Falcons by a game in the NFC South entering Week 16. The Falcons hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, so Tampa Bay can’t afford to lose any ground over the final three weeks of the season.
The division race is fairly straightforward, as the Buccaneers and Falcons don’t play again and the tiebreaker is decided. For Tampa Bay, the focus of the final three weeks will be avoiding landmines against losing teams; the Buccaneers don’t face another team with a winning record this season.
The Buccaneers cannot clinch a playoff berth in Week 16.
NFC wild-card standings
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 5 | Vikings | 12-2 |
| 6 | Packers | 10-4 |
| 7 | Commanders | 9-5 |
| 8 | Seahawks | 8-6 |
| 9 | Falcons | 7-7 |
| 10 | Cardinals | 7-7 |
| 11 | 49ers | 6-8 |
| 12 | Cowboys | 6-8 |
| 13 | Saints | 5-9 |
| 14 | Bears | 4-10 |
| 15 | Panthers | 3-11 |
| 16 | Giants | 2-12 |
The Buccaneers could conceivably earn a wild-card berth if they finished 10-7 and the Falcons did as well, giving Atlanta the NFC South title.
The Commanders would lose a game to the Falcons in that scenario in Week 17 and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Buccaneers, so it’s not unrealistic that Tampa Bay could land a wild-card spot as a consolation prize. The easiest path to the playoffs for Tampa Bay, however, is through the division.
MORE NFL WEEK 16:
Buccaneers remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) |
| 16 | Dec. 22 | at Cowboys | 8:20p p.m. |
| 17 | Dec. 29 | vs. Panthers | 1 p.m. |
| 18 | Jan. 5 | vs. Saints | TBD |
The Buccaneers face three sub-.500 teams to finish out the season, with their toughest test perhaps the Week 16 “Sunday Night Football” battle with the Cowboys. Dallas is nearly eliminated, but the team has shown some signs of life in recent weeks with three wins in four games.
If Tampa Bay survives that matchup, the NFC South’s bottom two teams await. The Buccaneers host the Panthers and Saints to close out the year.
Buccaneers updated playoff chances
ESPN’s Football Power Index rates the Buccaneers’ playoff chances at 86%, with an 85% chance of winning the NFC South.
Tampa’s strong chances despite a slim division lead are likely the result of a weak schedule down the stretch, so an upset could turn the race upside down.
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