After being held to eight hits and four runs through the first two games of the American League Championship series, the Blue Jays exploded for 18 hits and 13 runs in Game 3 as Toronto walked over Seattle 13-4 to pull to within two games to one in their Best of Seven series.
Max Scherzer is slated to take the mound for Toronto in Game 4 tonight against Luis Castillo for Seattle.
The Jays smashed five home runs in Game 3. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Andres Gimenez, Alejandro Kirk, and Addison Barger each went deep as Toronto mauled George Kirby and three Seattle relievers. Prior to last night’s barrage, the Mariners’ bullpen had gone 18 straight innings without allowing a run.
It looked like the Mariners’ offense was picking up right where it left off in Game 2 when Julio Rodriguez went yard in the bottom of the first against Shane Bieber but the veteran settled down from there shutting out Seattle over the next five innings. The Jays responded with 11 runs from the third to sixth innings to secure their first win of the series.
Lets dive into Game 4 of the American League Championship series and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch the first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Blue Jays at Mariners – ALCS Game 4
- Date: Thursday, October 16, 2025
- Time: 8:33PM EST
- Site: T-Mobile Park
- City: Seattle, WA
- Network/Streaming: FS1
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Blue Jays at the Mariners – ALCS Game 4
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Toronto Blue Jays (+114), Seattle Mariners (-138)
- Spread: Mariners -1.5 (+152)
- Total: 7.5 runs
Probable starting pitchers for Blue Jays at Mariners – ALCS Game 4
- Pitching matchup for October 16, 2025: Max Scherzer vs. Luis Castillo
- Blue Jays: Max Scherzer (5-5, 5.19 ERA)
Last outing: 9/24 vs. Boston – 5IP, 4ER, 10H, 0BB, 5Ks
This is Scherzer’s first appearance in the 2025 postseason but the 11th year that he will pitch in the postseason - Mariners: Luis Castillo (11-8, 3.54 ERA)
Last outing: 10/10 vs. Detroit – 1.1IP, 0ER, 0H, 0BB, 1K
Castillo has allowed just 1 hit in six scoreless innings while striking out 4 this postseason
- Blue Jays: Max Scherzer (5-5, 5.19 ERA)
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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Blue Jays at Mariners – ALCS Game 4
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 4-18 (.222) in his career against Luis Castillo
- George Springer is 5-18 (.278) against Castillo in his career
- Alejandro Kirk is 4-8 (.500) in his career against Castillo
- As a team, the Mariners are hitting .204 in their collective careers against Max Scherzer
- Eugenio Suarez is just 3-19 with 9 strikeouts against Scherzer in his career but 2 of the 3 hits have been HRs
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s ALCS Game 4 between the Blue Jays and the Mariners
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Blue Jays and the Mariners:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Toronto Blue Jays at +1.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 7.5.
Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC Sports.
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