For the first time in nine years, the MLB postseason will not include the Houston Astros.
The Astros were eliminated from postseason contention Saturday, the penultimate day of the regular season, when the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians both won. Their elimination officially sets the AL playoff field, with the AL Central duo each securing a playoff spot.
The development ends the fourth-longest postseason streak in MLB history and the second-longest active streak after the Los Angeles Dodgers (13 years).
It’s a position most fans would’ve thought unthinkable a couple of months ago. As recently as July 6, the Astros led the AL West by seven games. Even as that lead shrank a little, the franchise got an emotional boost with the return of Carlos Correa at the MLB trade deadline, among other buying moves.
The team has taken a significant step back since then, while the AL West champion Seattle Mariners caught fire after buying big at the trade deadline. Among the Astros currently on the injured list: star slugger Yordan Alvarez, starting pitcher Luis Garcia, closer Josh Hader, shortstop Jeremy Peña and starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr.
Houston hit its nadir this month, with losses in six of its past seven games to cede the division to Seattle. That included a three-game sweep by the Mariners to send Houston reeling, and it couldn’t recover during its final series against the Athletics and Los Angeles Angels.
Correa apologized to fans after Saturday’s game, a 6-1 win over the Angels, via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart:
“I want to apologize to the fans in Houston for falling short. It’s not what they’re accustomed to. They’re used to watching playoff baseball and they look forward to that every single year. It’s a beautiful time of the year in Houston. We were not able to accomplish that this year, but we promise our fans in Houston this offseason is going to be one of a lot of hard work. We’re all going to get better. Next year will be one to remember.”
The early end to the season leaves the Astros with plenty to figure out this offseason, most notably what to do about starting pitcher Framber Valdez, who will be a free agent. There are even bigger questions facing an organization once known for talent at all levels and a ruthless front office.
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The Astros have been losing talent since before the 2022 World Series — and they’re no longer replacing it
The Astros’ recent history can essentially be told through three general managers.
There was Jeff Luhnow, who famously created a consistent winner all the way up to the 2017 World Series but also fostered a culture that birthed the team’s sign-stealing scandal, amid other bad looks.
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There was James Click, who was brought in from the Tampa Bay Rays after Luhnow was ousted and saw some of the team’s most talented players — Correa, George Springer, Gerrit Cole — leave but continued the front office’s analytics focus well enough to win the 2022 World Series with a new wave of talent. He was fired right after that 2022 title, following reported clashes with team owner Jim Crane.
And now there’s Dana Brown, whose hire was specifically designed to move away from analytics toward scouting. There’s also a bit of a shadow GM situation going on, as senior adviser Jeff Bagwell has a direct line to Crane and has made very clear that he didn’t enjoy the team’s analytics era.
Since Click’s ouster, the team has continued to lose big names in Justin Verlander (twice), Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, with Valdez likely to join them. The main reason the scouting-focused Brown came aboard was to find the young talent to help offset those losses, but that hasn’t materialized.
The Astros were No. 29 in MLB Pipeline’s midseason organizational rankings, and it’s not because the team had a bunch of impact players graduate from the minors in the past couple of years. By FanGraphs’ calculation of WAR, the Astros were in the bottom five in MLB among players 25 and younger.
Meanwhile, every single one of Houston’s big free-agent signings under the current administration has blown up in its face. Hader (five years, $95 million) is hurt and has posted an ERA with the Astros half a run worse than the rest of his career. Christian Walker (three years, $60 million) hit .236/.296/.410 this year, his first in Houston. José Abreu (three years, $58.5 million) was an unmitigated disaster. Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5 million) has posted a 4.81 ERA over the course of the contract and is now playing for the Tigers.
The Astros once had something that worked. They have something different now, by their ownership’s choice. So far, it isn’t working out.
Looking ahead, even if Valdez leaves, Houston will have some reason for hope next season, with hopefully more health and a full season of Correa. But this is what teams in decline look like: some good players (Hunter Brown, a Luhnow draftee, is already one of the best pitchers in baseball), but without the mid-tier depth that allows a team to stand out across a 162-game season.
The Astros won 106 games in 2022, 90 games in 2023, 88 games in 2024 and are guaranteed to come in below that in 2025. At some point soon, another teardown/rebuild might be more attractive than soldiering on.
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