The 36-year-old heavyweight points back to his 12-round fight against Dave Allen as a turning point in how he views his own stamina and composure deep into fights. Before that bout, Makhmudov had built his record largely on early knockouts and had never been tested over the full distance.
“It gives me a lot of confidence, because I never fight before like that. Hard rounds, I never fight 12 rounds,” Makhmudov said to Boxingscene. “But because I have now, it’s good to have experience. Experience is always good. It’s always helping you, and it’s everything for me.”
That rooftop visual definitely tells a story from yesterday’s photo shoot. Seeing them side-by-side really highlights the physical contrast between the two. If Fury is coming in lighter and thinner, it might be a double-edged sword. He could be faster, or he could lack the mass to lean on a powerhouse like Makhmudov.
The idea of Makhmudov carrying his power into the late rounds is a legitimate nightmare for any heavyweight, but especially for one dealing with a long layoff. Heavyweight power is usually the last thing to go, but stamina and punch resistance are often the first to decline with age and inactivity.
Historically, Fury’s best defense was his movement and his ability to tie fighters up to tire them out. However, if Fury truly hasn’t regained the gas tank he showed in the Usyk rematch, he won’t be able to dance away for 12 rounds.
Makhmudov hits heavy. Taking those shots on the arms and shoulders for 30 minutes drains a fighter’s legs. Now that Makhmudov knows he won’t gas out at round six, he can pace himself to explode in the championship rounds.
Fury at 37 is in a different phase of his career. Being painfully thin after his hard training camp could suggest he’s worked on his cardio, but against a powerful Russian, you often need some meat on the bones to absorb the impact of those clubbing right hands.
The Russian contender added that fighting in the UK during that bout also helped prepare him for the environment he expects this weekend, where the crowd is likely to be heavily in Fury’s favor.
“It was amazing. Everyone was against me,” Makhmudov said about his last fight in Sheffield, England, against Dave Allen. “I said, ‘after the fight you’re gonna love me.’ And this happened.”
Some fighters need the love of the crowd to perform, but others turn into absolute monsters when they feel like the villain. Makhmudov clearly falls into the second category.
If Makhmudov can effectively unplug that energy by staying calm and landing heavy shots early, he could turn the O2 Arena into a very quiet place.
Fury’s late career has been defined by that heavy, mauling style, but Makhmudov is probably the worst person in the division to try to lean on. While most heavyweights get smothered by Fury’s size, Makhmudov thrives in the phone booth.
His clubbing shots are heavy-handed strength, where even a short, six-inch hook can do damage. If Fury tries to initiate the clinch to rest or drain Makhmudov’s energy, he might find himself in a world of trouble for a few reasons:
Makhmudov is a physical tank. Unlike some of Fury’s previous opponents, who were pushed around, the Russian has the core strength to hold his ground and keep his arms free.
Arslanbek is very comfortable landing hammer fists, short uppercuts, and thudding body blows while tied up. If Fury tries to lean, he’s leaving his ribs and the side of his head wide open.
A painfully thin Fury has less mass to use as a weighted blanket. If he doesn’t have the bulk to physically overawe Makhmudov, the clinch becomes a neutral zone where the harder puncher usually wins.
Fury’s grappling has helped him keep winning as his movement slowed down. But if he can’t use his weight to tire Makhmudov, he’s forced back into a long-range boxing match. With his legs looking questionable and his inactivity at an all-time high, staying on the outside for 12 rounds against a guy who is now confident in his stamina is a massive ask.
It’s a case of a veteran’s favorite trick potentially becoming his biggest liability. If Fury grabs hold and realizes he can’t move the man in front of him, the look on his face in round three or four will tell us everything we need to know.
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