Looking at the schedule and the Astros’ plan to open with a 5-man rotation, there are certainly clues.
Back on January 5th, at the press conference introducing SP Tatsuya Imai, Astros manager Joe Espada said the team would likely employ a 6-man rotation frequently this season and that we would “probably see it from the get-go.”
With 26 games in 28 days to open the season, and their new prized pitcher used to pitching once a week in Japan, it seemed to make the most sense the Astros would utilize the 6-man rotation as much as possible to keep things as close to “normal” for Imai as they could as he adapted to the MLB schedule and level of play.
A little over a week ago, that started to change, and the Astros were unsure whether they would go 5-man or 6-man to start the year. That question was answered today by the manager.
That definitive statement was made before the Astros took on the Mets in Port St. Lucie today, in their penultimate Grapefruit League game of the 2026 season. It was a game stated by Mike Burrows, who followed Hunter Brown as the Astros line up their rotation for the season.
Cristian Javier will pitch tomorrow. Imai, who hasn’t pitched since he threw 3 shutout innings March 11, is scheduled to pitch Monday (March 23) in Houston against the Space Cowboys. The regular season begins March 26.
Lance McCullers Jr., who last pitched March 17, would presumably follow as the fifth starter. Spencer Arrighetti, the other prime candidate for the rotation’s fifth spot, has not started a game this spring and he was just away from the team due to the birth of his twins. He will likely either begin the season in the bullpen.
The Astros will play 7 games in a row to open the season. Right now, the way the Astros lineup, that rotation would run Brown, Burrows, Javier, Imai, McCullers, Brown, Burrows, DAY OFF.
Houston would then play six straight games: Javier, Imai, McCullers, Brown, Burrows, Javier, DAY OFF.
They would then play 13 straight games, and this is where the sixth starer would be introduced: Imai, McCullers, Brown, Burrows, Javier, Arrighetti as 6th starter, Imai, McCullers, Brown, Burrows, Javier, Arrighetti, Imai, DAY OFF.
After that stretch of 26 games in 28 days, they have a 3 game series with the Yankees and then another off day. This could lead to McCullers being skipped and giving him some extra rest before he would make his next start.
Against the Yankees, the Astros could go with Brown, Burrows and Javier all on 5 days rest.
Houston will then play 9 straight. With McCullers having been potentially skipped for the Yankees series, that could ultimately lead to Arrighetti not starting again until they need to create a fifth day of rest for Imai again.
The rotation coming out from the off day following the Yankees series could be Imai, McCullers, Brown, Burrows, Javier, Arrighetti, Imai, McCullers, Brown.
The Astros will want to keep Imai on 5 days rest, and in the 4th starter spot, it all seems to lineup that way for him.
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