The annual NBA GM Survey offers a fantastic yearly glimpse into what the lead executives around the league value and how they think.
It’s also a terrible predictive tool — don’t place your bets based on their responses (might I recommend the clever folks at the NBC Sports betting page for your tips). A year ago, 25 of the 30 GMs picked Boston to repeat (that was probably 26, Brad Stevens can’t vote for his own team), yet Oklahoma City won 68 games and the title — the GMs have picked the champion just once in the last seven years (the 2024 Celtics).
So, is it a worrying sign for Oklahoma City that 24 of the 30 GMS picked them to repeat as champions? No, it’s more a sign of the conventional wisdom thinking around the league, which this survey certainly provides. Some highlights from the voting:
NBA Champion: Oklahoma City Thunder (80% of the vote). Cleveland and Denver were tied for second (7% each).
East Champion: Cleveland Cavaliers (63% of voters had them first, 27% second), with the New York Knicks second (30% first-place votes, 53% second).
West Champion: Oklahoma City Thunder (87% of voters had them first). Denver was second (10% had them first).
Who will win MVP? Nikola Jokic, 67% of the vote. The next three in line were Luka Doncic (10%), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (8%), and Victor Wembanyama (7%).
Who will win Rookie of the Year? Cooper Flagg, who got all but one vote (and Nico Harrison can’t vote for his own guy, so there was one vote for VJ Edgecombe). Flagg was also overwhelmingly voted the rookie that will be the best in this class five years from now (just know five years ago the GMs voted James Wiseman that honor).
What player would you pick to start a franchise? Victor Wembanyama (83% of the vote, which makes you wonder what the other 17% are thinking).
Player most likely to have a breakout season: Amen Thompson in Houston (30% of the vote). Brandon Miller (Charlotte), Ausar Thompson (Detroit) and Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio) were tied for second.
Which team made the best overall moves this offseason? The Atlanta Hawks (53% of the vote). The second choice went to the Houston Rockets (27%).
Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact? Kevin Durant to Houston (73% of the vote). Desmond Bane to Orlando was second, and also voted the most underrated move of the offseason.
Most surprising move of the offseason: Milwaukee waiving/stretching Damian Lillard (second on this list was the Bucks signing Myles Turner, which only happened because of the waive/stretch of Lillard).
Who was the biggest steal in terms of where they were drafted? In a bit of a surprise, it went to Kasparas Jakucionis to Miami, selected at No. 20. Tied for second was Ace Bailey to Utah at No. 5 and Carter Bryant to San Antonio at No. 14.
Best defender in the NBA: Victor Wembanyama with 80% of the vote. Dyson Daniels was voted the best perimeter defender in the league.
Who is the best head coach in the NBA? Newly minted USA Basketball head coach Erik Spoelstra of Miami, with 52% of the vote (OKC’s Mark Daigneault was second, and the Clippers’ Tyronn Lue was third).
Which team’s level of success this season is toughest to predict? The Philadelphia 76ers got 47% of the vote (Dallas and Golden State were second and third). With all due respect to the questions around the Mavs and Warriors, how do you not pick the Sixers?
Which player is the most athletic? Amen Thompson got 58% of the vote to finish first (Anthony Edwards in Minnesota was second).
Here’s one I questioned a little: The GMs voted Stephen Curry the best leader in the NBA. That surprised me. Not that Curry isn’t a strong leader, but would you put him ahead of Jalen Brunson, LeBron James, or even the injured Damian Lillard?
One other interesting question and answer: What rule most needs to change? The No. 1 answer was concerns about roster construction, specifically that the tax apron rules are too harsh, and that there should be a salary cap discount for a team’s own drafted players. A lot of fans feel the same way.
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