Amid the Red Bull drama, what should Verstappen do for F1 2026? Our writers have their say

One question that has been constant in recent weeks is will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before his contract ends in 2028 – and that isn’t likely to change after the sacking of Christian Horner as F1 team boss.

Mercedes has made no secret of its ‘flirting’ with Verstappen while rumours also link the four-time F1 world champion to a reunion with Adrian Newey plus Honda over at Aston Martin.

Following Horner’s dismissal as Red Bull F1 team CEO and team principal, it adds a new factor into Verstappen’s thinking over his future.

So, here our writers give their take on what they think Verstappen should do for 2026.

Verstappen can use 2026 to assess the performance across the grid – Mark Mann-Bryans

With the sweeping regulation changes coming in 2026, the performance of all 11 teams on the grid will be an unknown up until the first test sessions.

Formula 1 is littered with examples of a world championship-winning driver making the wrong decision on their next move and ending up in uncompetitive machinery, locked into a contract that does not allow them to fight at the front of the field.

Verstappen has clauses in his Red Bull deal that can work for him should he want – or indeed, need – to get out, so he should stay put for the time being and play the field.
What would be the point in switching to Mercedes if it gets it wrong all over again and is then forced to play catch up? Or pin all of his hopes of Adrian Newey being an instant success in delivering a winning car to Aston Martin?

If those things – and many others beside – do play out against the backdrop of Red Bull struggling, those teams will always find space for Verstappen. He is just too good not to.

Mercedes a safer bet for Verstappen, but what does Horner’s departure mean? – Ronald Vording

Watch: What Horner’s sacking really means for Verstappen, F1 and Red Bull?

The first question Max Verstappen has to answer regarding his future is if he is willing to potentially give up 2026. If the answer is yes, then the driver market looks wide open for 2027—with potential options at Mercedes, Aston Martin and maybe even Ferrari. By then Verstappen will have a clear picture of the pecking order under the new regulations as well.

But if the Dutchman isn’t willing to wait, there are two ways to look at his decision for 2026. Purely from a performance perspective, Mercedes seems a safer bet than Red Bull. Horner noted there is “no guarantee” Verstappen can win with a Mercedes engine, but added it would be “embarrassing” for the German brand if Red Bull were ahead of them. It’s very unlikely for a newcomer to beat Mercedes straight away, looking at the track record of the German manufacturer.

If Verstappen wants the most competitive package, then jumping ship before 2026 seems a sensible thing to do. But the current situation might be more complex than that. With Horner gone and Marko still there, one can say Red Bull has created an environment the Verstappens would like. And if that’s the case, then it would be strange from a more personal and political point of view to leave. Verstappen has been very loyal to the Red Bull family so far, but for 2026 the more personal and political factors might clash with the purely sporting ones.

2027 will provide Verstappen with more knowledge and opportunities to stick or twist – Stuart Codling

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

There will come a time when we look at Max Verstappen and wonder whether he’s still “got it”. But that point is long in the future.

For now, Verstappen has time on his side. From a purely pragmatic point of view, setting aside issues of personal loyalty to Helmut Marko and other aligned figures in the Red Bull sphere, he potentially has more to lose than gain by leaving at the end of the season.

To do so would be launching himself into the unknown, and laying himself open to the kind of poor timing which has restricted Fernando Alonso to just two world championships. For all the the word in the paddock that suggests Mercedes has the most advanced engine project for the new 2026 technical package, who knows if it can wrap a decent car around it? Serial failures in the ground-effect era have tarnished the memory of those seven consecutive world championships.

Far better to take stock next season. If Red Bull’s trajectory doesn’t change, he will likely be in the same position as he is now in 12 months – and there will be many more opportunities for 2027. After all, nobody will be questioning his speed or commitment.

Verstappen will need patience over the next 12 months – Filip Cleeren

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

There is only one legitimate reason why Max Verstappen would ever want to move teams and that all boils down to performance. If Red Bull can give him a winning car, or convince him that a competitive machine is within reach even if it were to start 2026 on the back foot, then I don’t see why Verstappen would leave the familiar environment he has enjoyed working in so much and feels at home in.

Red Bull’s high profile staff departures are a huge concern and its new Powertrains division is a question mark, so incoming team principal and CEO Laurent Mekies will have his work cut out to restore confidence from the Verstappens that Milton Keynes is still the place to be after its car performance and handling worsened, much to Verstappen’s frustration.

Meanwhile, it is tempting to buy into the hype around Mercedes’ new power units, and no doubt Verstappen and his team will be busy trying to parse through what little reliable information there is about 2026’s engines and their relative potential.

But the simple truth is that nobody knows what 2026 will have in store, so it is best to wait it out and see in March who is really ahead of the game and who isn’t, and whether there is a pathway for Red Bull to get on top if it is indeed behind.

The performance clauses that can be triggered this summer are understood to still be there next year, so getting out of an uncompetitive Red Bull will never be a huge problem. But if he were to join Mercedes for 2026 and the team turns out to be off the pace, then what does he do? Mercedes will likely want to tie F1’s dominant driver up for a more watertight, long-term contract, so it would be very unlikely for Verstappen to be able to walk away as easily as he can do now.

And amid all the chatter about Mercedes, it might not even be the Brackley team that is ahead next year, but say… Aston Martin, which could lead to a reunion with Adrian Newey and Honda after all. The smart money is on staying for 2026, seeing the lay of the land and then making a decision based on actual results and performance figures rather than smoke and mirrors. Patience is a virtue.