Alex Ovechkin games left in NHL season: Will Capitals star break Wayne Gretzky's goals record in 2025?

Wayne Gretzky is considered the greatest hockey player of all time. Some of his records are considered untouchable, and we long thought that his goals record would stand the test of time.

Yet Capitals winger Alex Ovechkin is closing in on that Gretzky record. The Capitals drafted him with the first overall pick in the 2004 NHL Draft and he has been in the NHL since the 2005-2006 season. Time is the biggest constraint for Ovi, as he is 39 years old and will turn 40 before the 2025-2026 regular season begins.

As of Feb. 21, Ovechkin is 15 goals from tying Gretzky’s record and 16 from breaking it. Here is a look at whether or not he will break the longstanding record in 2025.

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When will Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky’s record?

Ovechkin has played in 39 games this season and has netted 26 goals. The Capitals are 36-11-8 as of Feb. 21 and have 27 games left in the regular season.

In order to break the record, Ovechkin would have to score 16 goals in the next 27 games. This comes out to an average of 0.59 goals per game, which is less than Ovi’s current goal average of 0.67 goals per game so far this season.

Mathematically, he should break it before the end of the regular season. The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg gives Ovechkin an 83% chance to break Gretzky’s record this year heading into the home stretch.

If you are trying to be at CapOne Arena for the record-breaking goal, here are the best games to target. Good luck. pic.twitter.com/46kfCSkxJG

— Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg) February 12, 2025

Alex Ovechkin career stats

SEASON	GP	GOALS	G/GP	ASSISTS	POINTS
2005-06	81	52	0.64	54	106
2006-07	82	46	0.56	46	92
2007-08	82	65	0.79	47	112
2008-09	79	56	0.71	54	110
2009-10	72	50	0.69	59	109
2010-11	79	32	0.41	53	85
2011-12	78	38	0.49	27	65
2012-13	48	32	0.67	24	56
2013-14	78	51	0.65	28	79
2014-15	81	53	0.65	28	81
2015-16	79	50	0.63	21	71
2016-17	82	33	0.40	36	69
2017-18	82	49	0.60	38	87
2018-19	81	51	0.63	38	89
2019-20	68	48	0.71	19	67
2020-21	45	24	0.53	18	42
2021-22	77	50	0.64	40	90
2022-23	73	42	0.56	33	75
2023-24	79	31	0.39	34	65
2024-25	39	26	0.67	17	43

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How many goals does Alex Ovechkin have?

Ovechkin has 879 career goals. He came into the season with 853 and has scored 26 this year. Gretzky has scored 894 in his career. The Capitals winger is 15 goals from tying the legendary mark and 16 from breaking it.