The MLB offseason is nearly over. Meaningful baseball games return to our lives beginning March 18, with the Cubs and Dodgers facing off in Tokyo.
But first, let’s continue our division-by-division season previews. It’s time to turn our attention to the teams in the American League. We begin with the AL East.
More division previews: National League East | National League Central | National League West
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New York Yankees
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 17): 86-76, 63.0% odds to make the playoffs, 31.1% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Juan Soto, baseball mercenary, delivered.
Behind Soto’s patience, Aaron Judge’s power and a sturdy pitching staff, the Yanks won 94 ballgames, the division crown and the AL pennant. And then … Nestor Cortes Jr. threw Freddie Freeman a meatball, Aaron Judge dropped a pop-up, Gerrit Cole forgot to cover first base, and the Yankees spent winter getting clowned on by the victorious Dodgers. Soto’s crosstown flight and Gerrit Cole’s season-ending Tommy John surgery have only intensified the consternation in YankeeLand as the game’s most notorious franchise continues its quest for title No. 28.
Best-case scenario: New York’s core competency of run prevention — they own the fourth-lowest ERA in MLB since the start of 2022 — is enough to overcome a year without Cole. Big-money free-agent addition Max Fried pitches like the ace he was paid to be. So does Carlos Rodón, who has his first All-Star-level season in pinstripes. Anthony Volpe makes The Leap™ in his age-24 season, going from glove-first shortstop to all-around superstar. Jasson Dominguez goes 30/30 and wins AL Rookie of the Year. Judge cranks out another 60 homers. The Yankees — all rocking playoff beards — storm through October and win the first World Series of the Judge Era. Owner Hal Steinbrenner looks like ZZ Top when he accepts the trophy.
Worst-case scenario: It turns out that replacing Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole is extremely difficult. Judge desperately misses Soto’s presence in the lineup, as recent additions such as Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Jazz Chisholm fail to step up. Giancarlo Stanton, sidelined by two ailing elbows, doesn’t play a single game. The gaping hole at third base proves to be an anchor. Dominguez’s bat doesn’t blossom, and he remains a blindfolded toddler in left field. The catchers behind youngster Austin Wells are bad enough that Wells has to play six days a week, and he’s an exhausted husk by late summer. Judge cranks out only 40 homers. The Yankees finish under .500 for the first time since George H.W. Bush was president, and Steinbrenner is so embarrassed that he reinstates the facial hair policy for 2026.
Make-or-break player: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Since making the All-Star team in 2022, the Bahamian typhoon of effortless swagger has effectively been a league-average hitter. He showcased his immense talent during a 46-game stint in New York after being dealt at the deadline (11 homers and a.825 OPS). If he can sustain that over a full season and be The Second-Best Yankees Hitter, it would change the complexion of this lineup while turning Jazz into the fully actualized, immensely famous baseball force he has always wanted to be.
Season prediction: The Yankees miss Soto much more than they miss Cole, but Judge does enough to carry the supporting cast to 90 wins and a wild-card berth. Volpe emerges, and Chisholm is solid, but the rest of the lineup underwhelms. It’s a decent, ultimately disappointing Yankees season that pushes the franchise one year closer to ending the Judge Era without a ring.
Baltimore Orioles
Projected record: 83-79, 47.7% odds to make the playoffs, 18.3% odds to win the division
What happened last year? A potent, young offense that stampeded through spring lost steam down the stretch as the O’s settled for a wild card. Come October, the lineup was a no-show during an embarrassing wild-card loss at home to Kansas City that stretched Baltimore’s postseason losing streak to 10 games.
Best-case scenario: Grayson Rodriguez returns more quickly than expected from his scary triceps injury and blossoms into a legit ace atop Baltimore’s starting staff. Soft-tossing 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano, an MVP last year in Japan, makes an effective transition to stateside ball. Charlie Morton, who turns 42 in November, keeps raging against time. Southpaw Cade Povich becomes a rotation stalwart. A heroic return from flamethrowing closer Felix Bautista, who missed all of 2024 due to an elbow injury, shortens games and changes the complexion of the whole club. The offense bops like it’s supposed to, with Jackson Holliday putting a rocky rookie year behind him to join Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman and Colton Cowser as homegrown stars.
Worst-case scenario: Rodriguez misses a significant stretch, and this undermanned rotation can’t keep games close enough to give the lineup a shot. Rutschman’s disappointing 2024 proves to be the start of a trend and not a blip. Holliday continues to struggle, raising doubts about the former top prospect’s future. Offseason acquisitions Morton, Sugano and outfielder Tyler O’Neill fall flat. The O’s finish dead last in the division, and the front office regrets not being more aggressive in adding pitching over the winter.
Make-or-break player: Adley Rutschman. The O’s franchise catcher was horrendous in the second half, with disgusting offensive numbers whenever he started behind the dish. Once hailed as the savior of this fallen franchise, Rutschman is still only 27 years old, but he needs a bounceback campaign to prove he’s still a needle-moving force. His framing numbers, which were awesome in ‘23 and awful in ‘24, simply need to bounce back.
Season prediction: The O’s, under new owner David Rubenstein, spent money during the offseason. It was, in fact, the largest year-over-year percentage payroll increase in baseball. Still, it’s hard to say this team got better, with its best pitcher (Corbin Burnes) and its home run leader (Anthony Santander) departing in free agency. People around the game were confused about the way Baltimore opted to spend money and are concerned that this front office isn’t making the most of an impressive homegrown offensive core. I tend to agree, particularly when it comes to the rotation. Baltimore will be in the wild-card mix, and the lineup is still really good, but I’m skeptical about the pitching — to the point that I think they’ll miss out on the postseason.
Boston Red Sox
Projected record: 85-77, 56.5% odds to make the playoffs, 24.1% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The Red Sox had a Netflix documentary crew following them around for what turned out to be a forgettable, lackluster season of .500 baseball. A lot went right — outfielder Jarren Duran raked, starter Tanner Houck carved, the farm system took a massive leap forward — but enough went wrong for Boston to aggressively upgrade its roster in the offseason. The additions of southpaw starter Garrett Crochet via trade and All-Star infielder Alex Bregman via free agency have the Sox primed to contend for a division title in ‘25.
Best-case scenario: The positional drama — longtime third baseman Rafael Devers has expressed hesitation about moving off the hot corner for Bregman — is resolved by Opening Day. A more energized Devers takes to the DH role and rips 40 homers while Bregman, rejuvenated by his new surroundings, rediscovers his power stroke. The trio of highly touted position-player prospects — Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Meyer, all of whom homered during the Spring Breakout game — carve out roles by midseason and prove to be difference-making pieces. An already ailing middle of the rotation — Lucas Giolito has a hamstring issue, Kutter Crawford’s dealing with a knee problem, Brayan Bello’s shoulder is barking — gets healthy to back up Grochet and Houck, both of whom contend for the Cy Young. The Yankees roll into Boston for the ALCS and get absolutely embarrassed. Aaron Judge hums “Dirty Water” to himself the whole drive home.
Worst-case scenario: Injuries and infighting derail the good vibes. Boston has so many startable position players that somebody will certainly be spending more time on the bench than they’d like. We’ve seen clubs such as the Dodgers ride that strategy to success, but having too many cooks in the kitchen can always go sideways. The Devers/Bregman positional situation seems to be mostly resolved, but if there’s genuine resentment beneath the surface, that could have an impact if it lingers. Boston is also relatively weak up the middle, at catcher and shortstop, where Connor Wong projects as a bad defender and Trevor Story represents something of an unknown after three injury-marred seasons.
Make-or-break player: Garrett Crochet. The Sox sent quite a haul to the Other Sox for Crochet, who emerged as one of MLB’s best left-handed starters in 2024. But as impressive as his strikeout rate and peripheral numbers were, Crochet has yet to prove that he can handle the bulk of being a frontline arm on a good team. His 146 innings last year were a career high, and while he’s built, physically and mentally, to lead a staff, we won’t know he can until we see it. I’m betting on Crochet being the real deal, but the Red Sox really need this guy to perform like an ace.
Season prediction: How and when Sox leadership opts to call upon their vaunted prospect trio should be fascinating. It has been difficult to figure out how skipper Alex Cora is going to make all these pieces fit together, but guess what? That’s a first-world problem. Having a lot of talented ballplayers is a good thing. Somebody (or somebodies) will get hurt and create an opening (or openings). But if this team stays healthy, I think it wins the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays
Projected record: 82-80, 36.6% odds to make the playoffs, 11.8% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The offense flat-out stunk, and the Rays finished out of the top three in the AL East for the first time since 2016. Then, in November, a hurricane blew the roof off their stadium, forcing them to relocate to the Yankees’ spring training complex for the foreseeable future.
Best-case scenario: This is the best pitching staff in baseball, and four Rays starters make the All-Star team. Flamethrowing lefty Shane McClanahan, finally back from Tommy John surgery, wins the Cy Young. The position-player group, as it does whenever the Rays inexplicably win 93 games, plays great defense and hits just enough. Yandy Díaz and his person-sized biceps bounce back from a lackluster 2024. Junior Caminero becomes a super-duper star. The bizarre stadium situation becomes a legitimately galvanizing force in the clubhouse, and the Rays host World Series games at a minor-league park.
Worst-case scenario: The lineup stinks again. Trading away Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena at last year’s deadline creates too big a void to fill internally, at least in the short term. Caminero’s swing-happy, inexperienced approach limits his impact. No other hitter performs at an All-Star level. The sweltering heat and unyielding rains of the Florida summer are too much to overcome, and the exhausted Rays, used to an air-conditioned dome, deliver another forgettable season.
Make-or-break player: Junior Caminero. He’s the only dude on this roster capable of a top-five MVP finish. How he develops this year and beyond will be a pivotal storyline for this organization.
Season prediction: The move to the short-fenced Steinbrenner Field helps Tampa’s offense, leading to a noticeable uptick in power production. That doesn’t impact the rotation, which misses enough bats to keep the ball in the yard. Tampa and its interchangeable carousel of randos sneak into a wild-card spot yet again, and we do indeed get playoff games in a minor-league park.
Toronto Blue Jays
Projected record: 82-80, 41.3% odds to make the playoffs, 14.4% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Besides a big season from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto’s offense was frustratingly average. The same was true of its rotation. That double-sided mediocrity, plus the second-worst bullpen in baseball, meant the 2024 Jays never really got out of first gear and slogged to a fifth-place division finish.
Best-case scenario: Long-term? The Jays and Guerrero find middle ground on an extension at some point during the season, which, given the reporting, seems extremely unlikely. As far as 2025, the Jays still have a playoff ceiling. To reach that ceiling, they’ll need their older pitching staff to stay healthy and effective. The bottom of the lineup — some combination of Andrés Giménez, Ernie Clement, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido — needs to outperform expectations. Bo Bichette rediscovering his best self is also a must, as is free-agent closer Jeff Hoffman reviving a brutally bad relief group. Anthony Santander, who joined the Jays over the winter on a big contract, needs to hit at least 35 bombs again. If all that happens, Toronto could sneak into October.
Worst-case scenario: The rotation turns out to be weathered and worn instead of experienced and wily. Gausman (34), Bassit (36) and Scherzer (40) all show signs of decline and/or spend time on the IL. Injuries and age-related decline also limit 35-year-old outfielder George Springer, who hasn’t performed at an All-Star level since 2022. Even with Hoffman, the bullpen doesn’t take significant steps forward. Toronto is close enough to a wild-card spot at the deadline that they don’t trade away impending free agents — which immediately looks foolish as they endure a late summer slide. Guerrero rakes through it all, driving his price beyond the Jays’ means, and he departs next winter. This era of Jays baseball fades into history as a “what coulda been.”
Make-or-break player: Bo Bichette. From 2020 through 2023, Bichette compiled the sixth-most fWAR amongst shortstops, receiving downballot MVP consideration in ‘21, ‘22 and ‘23. But last season, things went very wrong for the long-haired Floridian. A nagging calf issue kept him sidelined for much of the summer, and Bichette didn’t hit whenever he was available. Still just 27 years old and set to hit free agency this winter, Bichette needs a bounceback to (1) make himself some money and (2) give the Jays’ offense a real second option behind Guerrero.
Season prediction: The rotation and the lineup are both better than they were in 2024, but neither is better enough for this team to make a playoff push. Guerrero and Bichette leave after the season, and this organization faces a doomy and gloomy future.
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