Just one year removed from being one of the worst divisions in MLB history, the AL Central enjoyed a collective breakout in 2024, producing three playoff teams in Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. Granted, the success of that October-bound trio partially came at the expense of a tremendously disappointing Twins club and a historically bad White Sox team. But still, the bulk of this division proved a lot of people wrong in 2024, setting the stage for a 2025 campaign in which four of the Central’s five teams can make a legitimate case as being the favorite to claim the crown.
Does the AL Central have an encore in store after an exciting 2024? Or will this subset of teams regress back to its longstanding status as a division that sends just one team to the postseason? Let’s take a look.
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Cleveland Guardians
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 19): 79-83, 22.4% odds to make the playoffs, 10.8% odds to win the division
What happened last year? It was a spectacular managerial debut for Stephen Vogt. With baseball’s best bullpen and just enough offense around Jose Ramirez, the Guardians overcame instability in the rotation to not only win the division but also reach the ALCS. But rather than running it back in 2025 with the same group, Cleveland was quite active over the winter reshaping its roster. The Guardians dealt away the right side of their infield in two trades (Andres Gimenez to Toronto and Josh Naylor to Arizona), reunited with Carlos Santana to handle first base and added several arms to reinforce the pitching staff (Luis Ortiz, Paul Sewald, Slade Cecconi, Jakob Junis). Perhaps most importantly, Cleveland re-signed Shane Bieber amid his Tommy John rehab, setting up a highly anticipated return for the former Cy Young winner later this summer.
Best-case scenario: The bullpen continues to excel, with Sewald’s addition and a markedly improved rotation lessening the burden on the core four relievers (Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin) who threw so many innings in 2024. Bieber returns with no rust and leads the way in the second half, giving Cleveland an ideal Game 1 starter for October. Another MVP-caliber campaign from Ramirez, a fully healthy year for Steven Kwan and a full season from Lane Thomas amount to a much improved lineup that also features steps forward from younger hitters such as Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio and Bo Naylor. The Guards repeat as AL Central champs and win a playoff round or two.
Worst-case scenario: The bullpen regresses to a troubling degree, leaving little room for error for a rotation that remains relatively unstable outside of Tanner Bibee until Bieber’s return. Naylor’s big bat and Gimenez’s elite glove are both sorely missed, and Cleveland doesn’t boast a single above-average position player outside of Ramirez and Kwan, resulting in a wholly lackluster offense. Rivals Kansas City and Detroit continue their organizational ascents while Minnesota bounces back, making for an ultra-challenging division race that leaves Cleveland on the outside looking in, without a good enough record to even be in the wild-card mix.
Make-or-break player: Gavin Williams. As a rookie in 2023, Williams looked like the latest in a long line of great Cleveland starters. But injuries derailed his sophomore campaign, delaying his ascent and adding to the Guardians’ rotation woes in 2024. Now Williams is healthy, and he has looked splendid in spring training, making him an especially intriguing X-factor on this starting staff. Ortiz should also help fortify this unit, but among homegrown arms, there seems to be significantly more optimism surrounding Williams than guys such as Triston McKenzie and lefty Logan Allen. It’d be huge for this pitching staff if Williams can harness and sustain his high-end stuff over a full season.
Season prediction: Even with the fairly dramatic changes to the roster, the Guardians’ recipe for success remains: Kwan and Ramirez set the tone, and enough other bats step up to support a standout pitching staff that is notably more balanced than a year ago. The core of this Guardians squad prevails en route to another division title, albeit without the first-round bye they garnered last year.
Kansas City Royals
Projected record: 82-80, 42.8% odds to make the playoffs, 24.9% odds to win the division
What happened last year? After losing 106 games in 2023, the Royals surged to a stunning 30-win improvement and a playoff berth, thanks to a sensational season from Bobby Witt Jr. and a tremendous starting rotation. Three major moves headlined a relatively quiet subsequent offseason: the extension of mid-rotation anchor Michael Wacha, the acquisition of Jonathan India from Cincinnati in exchange for starting pitcher Brady Singer and the free-agent signing of closer Carlos Estevez.
Best-case scenario: Witt improves the few holes remaining in his game, drawing more walks and becoming a much more efficient base-stealer en route to a 40 HR, 50 SB, 10 WAR season that earns him his first AL MVP Award. India gets on base a ton atop the lineup, ensuring that Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez continue to collect a boatload of RBI. Top prospect Jac Caglianone arrives midseason and boosts the lineup further. The rotation repeats as one of the American League’s best, with Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo both in the AL Cy Young conversation and Kris Bubic breaking out in his return to the starting staff. Estevez and Lucas Erceg combine to be excellent game-enders, and the Royals win their first division title since 2015.
Worst-case scenario: Witt regresses from MVP level to merely very good, putting more pressure on the rest of a lineup that proves ill-equipped to produce at an October-worthy level. Perez’s production dips as his years of outrageous workload behind the dish finally catch up to him in his age-35 season. The rotation is still pretty good but no longer anywhere near elite, which isn’t enough to compensate for a well-below-average offense. The Royals fall back below .500 to a humbling fourth-place finish.
Make-or-break player: Jonathan India. India represents Kansas City’s most notable attempt to upgrade a lineup that was severely lacking beyond Witt, Perez and Pasquantino. Swapping Singer’s innings for India’s on-base skills is a direct acknowledgement that the need for offense was worth sacrificing some mound talent, but now it’s on India to produce as planned — especially considering that his fit on the roster defensively is somewhat unclear.
Season prediction: The few moves Kansas City made over the winter aren’t quite as impactful as hoped. The bottom of the lineup remains a severe weakness, and the rotation takes enough of a step back to leave the Royals hovering around .500 for much of the season — within shouting distance of the AL wild-card race but not close enough to qualify.
Detroit Tigers
Projected record: 83-79, 46.4% odds to make the playoffs, 28.3% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Detroit ended its decade-long playoff drought, rejuvenating the fan base and inspiring excitement for this new era of Tigers baseball. Tarik Skubal emerged as one of the best pitchers on the planet, dominating all season before surrendering a devastating grand slam to Lane Thomas in ALDS Game 5. An interesting offseason followed: Gleyber Torres was brought in to bolster the lineup as the every-day second baseman, and Jack Flaherty was brought back after being dealt away at last July’s deadline to reunite with Skubal atop the rotation.
Best-case scenario: Riley Greene takes another leap, powering an improved lineup alongside Torres en route to another All-Star appearance and a top-10 MVP finish. Kerry Carpenter continues to demolish right-handed pitching to a ridiculous degree. Skubal and Flaherty lead a breakout rotation that also features AL Rookie of the Year Jackson Jobe and a resurgence from former No. 1 pick Casey Mize. Spencer Torkelson, another former No. 1 pick, bounces back and leads the team in home runs. The Tigers win their first division title since 2014, and AJ Hinch wins Manager of the Year.
Worst-case scenario: The rotation beyond Skubal remains suspect at best, as free-agent signing Alex Cobb gives Detroit next to nothing due to injuries, and Flaherty disappoints in his return to Detroit. The lineup remains well below-average outside of Greene, with none of the other young hitters taking big enough steps forward and Torres struggling to slug in a more spacious ballpark. The Tigers aren’t brutally bad, but they’re well out of postseason contention come September.
Make-or-break player: Tyler Holton. Holton was arguably the most important character in Detroit’s self-described “pitching chaos” strategy that carried them down the stretch on days Skubal wasn’t starting and was simply marvelous by all measures before faltering in the ALDS. It was wildly impressive to watch both how Hinch utilized Holton in a wide range of situations and how Holton handled it, but it seems like a lot to ask him to reprise that role. Reliever volatility is hardly a secret, but Holton is a key arm to watch if the Tigers want to return to October.
Season prediction: The Tigers benefit from enviable depth in the upper minors, which the Royals lack, putting them in position to stay in the mix over the course of a long season. They remain in the wild-card race all the way through September before coming up just short, as the Detroit offense continues to underwhelm relative to other AL contenders.
Minnesota Twins
Projected record: 84-78, 55.0% odds to make the playoffs, 36.0% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The heavy favorites to repeat as division champs, the Twins played well in the first half and stayed in the race as late as mid-August before collapsing in catastrophic fashion in September, losing 18 of their final 25 games. Any hope of a busy winter that could help flush the bad vibes from their frustrating finish proved unwarranted, as Minnesota was one of the least active teams of the offseason, adding only outfielder Harrison Bader, first baseman Ty France and lefty reliever Danny Couloumbe via free agency.
Best-case scenario: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton combine for 250 games played and 10 WAR, finally fulfilling the hype as bona fide costars in their fourth season together. Eduoard Julien bounces back, and Trevor Larnach breaks out, which, along with slugger Matt Wallner, makes Minnesota’s lineup an absolute nightmare for right-handed pitchers. Pablo Lopez gets back to looking like a Cy Young contender and leads a stellar rotation backed up by one of the best bullpens in the American League, headlined by Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. Buoyed by perhaps the most balanced roster in the division (when healthy), the Twins reclaim the AL Central crown.
Worst-case scenario: Correa and Buxton combine for fewer than 200 games, and the offense suffers accordingly. The struggles Lewis showcased even when healthy last season (.620 OPS over final 58 games) spill over into 2025, magnifying the lack of impact in the lineup. The rotation continues to underperform its strong peripherals, and the bullpen disappoints relative to sterling projections. Minnesota falls to fourth place again, marking the team’s first time finishing worse than third in the division in consecutive seasons since 2013-14.
Make-or-break player: Brooks Lee. With the health of several other stars perpetually up in the air and the departures of veterans Carlos Santana and Max Kepler, it’s crucial that some of Minnesota’s younger position players start to elevate their games in 2025. Lee hasn’t exactly been the picture of health over the course of his young career, but his contributions could become particularly pivotal in the wake of Lewis’ latest injury, a hamstring strain that will put him on the IL to start the season. A top-30 overall prospect as recently as a year ago, the switch-hitting Lee has the talent to make an impact on both sides of the ball if things start to click.
Season prediction: With another year of injury-related interruptions, the Twins find themselves stuck in the middle again. They boast enough talent to avoid having the bottom fall out from under them but not enough impact to power a return to the postseason. Minnesota finishes third while either Kansas City or Detroit disappoints and falls to fourth.
Chicago White Sox
Projected record: 62-100, 0.1% odds to make the playoffs, 0.0% odds to win the division
What happened last year? A truly astonishing amount of losing. We all knew the White Sox were going to be bad in 2024, but no one expected them to be one of the worst teams in the history of the sport. Alas, such was the case for last year’s squad as the losses piled up in a hurry thanks in large part to a historically horrendous offense that finished a distant 30th in virtually every major category. There were, however, a handful of promising developments on the mound, most notably the remarkable breakout of Garrett Crochet, who was traded over the winter for an exciting package of prospects from Boston. After a trial run for Grady Sizemore as interim manager following Pedro Grifol’s firing, another former big-league outfielder in Will Venable was hired as the skipper entering 2025.
Best-case scenario: What constitutes success for the White Sox coming off last year’s nightmare of a season? Ideally, more than the 41 wins they mustered in 2024, but it’s not like anyone on the South Side is expecting a playoff run anytime soon. An ideal outcome for this season is a last-place finish that isn’t a complete embarrassment for everyone involved and a year in which young players are given the opportunity to fail and grow at the major-league level while demonstrating tangible progress toward becoming not just useful big-league players but also good ones. The White Sox have a promising collection of arms (Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, Hagen Smith, Noah Schultz) who warrant considerable optimism for what the pitching staff could look like in the not-so-distant future. But this organization needs bats badly, which means that the best thing that could happen for them this season is to find some hitters to build around, whether that’s homegrown guys such as Colson Montgomery or the hitters in the Crochet return, such as Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery and Chase Meidroth.
Worst-case scenario: The White Sox aren’t as bad as they were in 2024 — that genuinely seems impossible — but they’re still by far the worst team in baseball, with little signs of progress on offense resulting in another 110-plus-loss season. Worse yet, the farm system fails to produce enough positive developments on either side of the ball to warrant much optimism for 2026, making it even more difficult to envision the White Sox being even remotely competitive in the near future. The rebuild remains a long-term venture, prompting further apathy and disdain among Sox fans.
Make-or-break player: Luis Robert Jr. With zero hope of reaching October, the focus for this franchise is squarely on figuring out which players can be core pieces for the next good White Sox team, even if that’s several years down the road. But Robert also represents the team’s last opportunity to cash in a valuable trade chip for a package of young talent similar to what they reaped for Crochet. That said, Robert must return to All-Star form after a poor 2024 if teams are to come calling offering a huge haul of prospects. He certainly has the talent to do so, but that must happen sooner rather than later if the White Sox want to maximize a return for the center fielder.
Season prediction: Avoiding 100 losses feels like simultaneously a monumental task and a legitimate goal for this club in Venable’s first year at the helm. That said, the losses will have to come from somewhere in the standings, and it seems likely the White Sox will find a way to collect more than their fair share of defeats in 2025. I think the Sox will ultimately sink below the rebuilding Marlins and finish with MLB’s worst record once again — but with at least 10 more wins than they managed last year.
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