Reaching free agency has always been seen as a milestone in the life of a big leaguer. After six or seven years with an organization, it’s a player’s first opportunity to be wined and dined, to talk to other teams, to make a decision on the next chapter of his career and, ultimately, to cash in with a big payday after all the years it took to get there. But the process of MLB free agency has evolved significantly in the recent past, as the economics of the game have drastically shifted, with both franchise valuations and the value of player contracts skyrocketing.
In the past two offseasons, we’ve seen the two largest contracts in the history of professional sports handed out. First, Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for $700 million last winter. Then Juan Soto upped the ante, signing with the New York Mets for $765 million this offseason on a deal that could end up being worth $815 million with escalators and opt-ins.
But that’s not because teams are spending more freely in free agency. Rather, as the finances of the game have changed, the way players are evaluated when it comes to free agency has also changed. And with the steady increase in player salaries, teams have actually become more cautious about where they’re investing their money long-term.
Fifteen or so years ago, age wasn’t considered that big of a hindrance in a team’s pursuit of a player. It wasn’t uncommon for teams to give players in their 30s deals at the top of the market. Two of the biggest examples of this are Albert Pujols’ $254 million deal with the Angels entering his age-32 season and Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year, $292 million extension with the Tigers entering his age-31 season. Those are two of the best to ever play the game, and both will end up in the Hall of Fame, but their production after those contracts were signed left a lot to be desired.
And so, as free-agent contracts became more expensive and aging players experienced steep declines, the industry’s pendulum swung the other way. Baseball became a young man’s game, with many teams’ focus and resources shifting toward the youngest players. But as a consequence of teams attempting to be more savvy when it comes to player evaluation and free agency, baseball now faces a different problem. Today, free agents who are 28, 29 and 30 years old are struggling to land market-value deals.
First baseman Pete Alonso isn’t a perfect player. The 30-year-old is not the best defender, nor is he the best baserunner, but he is one of the game’s most prolific power hitters. His 226 homers since 2019 are second-most in MLB, behind only Aaron Judge. Not only that, but Alonso has also been the face of a franchise since his rookie season and has done so admirably, in a way that is authentic and genuine.
Yet it took until just days before spring training began for Alonso to re-sign with the Mets on a reported two-year, $54 million deal that includes an opt-out after next season. When the winter began, Alonso and his representation, super-agent Scott Boras, were hoping to land a longer-term deal near the $150 million threshold reached by fellow first basemen Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson.
Similarly, free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman’s numbers have dipped over the past few seasons. Yet the 30-year-old, two-time World Series champ with the Houston Astros is tied for the second-highest wRC+ (133) in baseball since 2019, and he remains an above-average defender at the hot corner. But with teams opening camp next week, Bregman remains unsigned, and the chances that he lands a deal worth $30 million annually as originally desired now look pretty remote.
There are 30 MLB teams that could improve their 2025 roster by adding a two-time World Series champion third baseman or a perennial 35-40-homer first baseman. Even if you remove all the teams that are rebuilding or simply too cheap to spend for premiere talent, that still leaves about 15 lineups that would benefit from the addition of either Alonso or Bregman. Yet for both players, the reported interest this winter has been limited to just a handful of teams.
And those are two of the players at the top of the market. Imagine what this offseason and offseasons in recent years have been like for mid-tier and lower-tier free agents. If Alonso and Bregman can’t get the deals they’re looking for, where does that leave the rest of the field? What does that mean for the larger free-agent process? Can free agents still get paid what they’re worth on the open market?
Free agency has started to seem like a forum where only the best and brightest stars receive deals at or above market value. But a free agent shouldn’t have to be Ohtani or Soto to get paid. The reality is that players of that caliber don’t reach free agency very often. For one, there aren’t many of them to begin with, and secondly, some — including Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Rafael Devers and Fernando Tatis Jr. — sign extensions years before they’d reach the open market.
The MLB system is designed so that after years of cost control, players reach free agency and a significant pay raise. But at this point, free agency is no longer a direct path to the big bucks for many of the players who get there. Yes, the generational players will still break the bank, but with so many teams limiting their spending, the majority of big leaguers are left waiting for their chance to cash in.
If this is the way owners have decided to take some of their power back — while complaining that the Dodgers and their massive payroll are bad for the game — the whispers about a salary cap will only get louder as we approach the end of the current collective bargaining agreement at the conclusion of the 2026 season. What’s ironic about such complaints is that other teams’ refusal to spend only benefits the Dodgers, who have continued to take advantage. Paying players to build a competitive roster is part of the cost of doing business and winning World Series — L.A. certainly seems to understand that. And besides, it’s not like every player on the Dodgers is making $30 million per year.
Baseball has a problem, but the problem isn’t about salary caps or even floors like many will point to. No, after MLB earned record revenues of $12 billion last year, it shouldn’t seem like free-agent contracts are being suppressed outside of the top 1% of players. Yet those increased earnings don’t seem to be translating to the players helping create them. Which brings us back to the CBA and the tenuous dynamic between MLB owners and the players’ association. This issue and the factors that contribute to it will likely become part of the next CBA negotiations.
Buckle up, because we’re headed for an ugly battle over the next three years, one that charts a course for a likely lockout two years from now.
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