Max Verstappen commits to Red Bull for 2026 — is it the smart thing to do?

Following the Belgian Grand Prix, it was already more or less clear, but Verstappen confirmed it during media day ahead of the Hungarian Grand Prix in Budapest: the Dutchman won’t go anywhere for the 2026 F1 season and will remain with Red Bull Racing.

“I think it’s time to stop all the rumours now,” Verstappen said in the team’s hospitality area. He added that much of the speculation had been media-driven: “It was pretty entertaining to see all the nice stories over the last few months. I have never said anything myself because I was just focused on talking to the team about how we could improve the performance.”

While there’s truth in that, and some of the media coverage had spiraled into wild speculation, this quote doesn’t tell the full story. Just like last year, the key figures involved deliberately left Verstappen’s future open-ended for some time. Verstappen was repeatedly asked whether he would still be with Red Bull next year but didn’t give a direct “yes.”

Meanwhile, Toto Wolff admitted that conversations had taken place. It made sense for both sides to keep their options open for a while, or as Wolff put it himself: “Our priority is always with our current drivers, but it’s only natural to see what a four-time world champion is planning.”

After the Spa weekend, it became evident that Verstappen wouldn’t be able to invoke the performance clause in his Red Bull contract for 2026. The clause stipulates that if Verstappen were outside the top three in the championship during the summer break, he could theoretically walk away from the Milton Keynes-based team. But with George Russell more than 25 points behind and only one race to go before the break, Verstappen is guaranteed to remain in the top three, closing that door. While contract buyouts are always possible, and Mercedes could afford it, Verstappen made clear that such a scenario was off the table for next year.

Is staying at Red Bull a risk for 2026?

Verstappen’s commitment to Red Bull through 2026 now raises the question: is this the best choice for both next year and on the longer term? On paper, question marks remain about Red Bull’s prospects next year. The in-house power unit project is the biggest variable in that. Christian Horner, in his final FIA press conference as the Red Bull team principal, said: “If Red Bull is ahead of Mercedes next year, it would be pretty embarrassing for them.”

While partly a bit of pre-emptive expectation management, it also underscores the reality: Red Bull’s engine program is a massive undertaking. No manufacturer truly knows where it stands relative to others, and while Ford’s Mark Rushbrook told Motorsport.com that “most milestones are being met” at the Red Bull Powertrains facility, it’s still a huge leap into the unknown – even more so for a newcomer.

Simultaneously, Red Bull’s technical team faces its own challenges. Though the team has enjoyed enormous success under the current rule set, key figures including Adrian Newey and Rob Marshall have departed since, and it remains to be seen how strong the current technical team is in its revised form. Despite the looming regulation reset, Red Bull still has something to prove, regardless of those regulations.

The outdated wind tunnel was often mentioned as an important factor, also by Horner. It’s a handicap in the final development stages under stable rules, when it’s all about extracting the last bits of car potential, and correlation issues become more visible. The team believes this disadvantage will be less relevant under an all-new set of regulations, as the correlation will be less of an issue for the first, big steps. A new tunnel will go live next year, but too late to influence the overall design of the 2026 car.

In other words, Red Bull is far from a guaranteed contender in 2026, maybe the opposite is even true, but to be fair: Verstappen doesn’t have any guarantees elsewhere. Mercedes’ next-gen engine is said to be promising by many in the paddock, but those expectations are still partly based on its past track record in 2014 — and much has changed in both Brixworth and the wider F1 world since then.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Racing Team Principal

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

A switch would also mean stepping into a completely different environment. At Red Bull, Verstappen knows the people around him, knows what he has, and — despite the team’s competitive struggles — he still feels at home. When asked by this website what gives him the confidence in Red Bull going forward, it’s no coincidence that he started his answer by saying: “I don’t need to go into too much detail, but I really enjoy working with the people in the team.”

That sentiment also applies to new team boss Laurent Mekies, with whom Verstappen says he can talk “on a technically deeper level” than he could with Horner. That wasn’t meant as a dig at the latter, but rather an acknowledgement that Red Bull is entering a new leadership phase — one that fits with F1’s broader trend of engineers rising to team principal roles. After such a shift in direction, it would’ve been odd for Verstappen to leave immediately. The team continues to move towards a structure that suits him, and it’s clear that Verstappen was made aware of Red Bull’s future plans as well, as he admitted in Spa. Leaving now would have been strange timing, which is why this news had been expected for some time.

Better overview and more options towards 2027?

The 2027 driver market is another critical element in this decision. While much recent speculation has focused on Mercedes, there’s potentially much more at play for 2027. Fernando Alonso’s contract as a driver runs out after 2026, potentially opening up a seat at Aston Martin — and with that a Honda–Newey reunion. Mercedes and even Ferrari could be on the table as well, and by then, Verstappen will have a much clearer picture of the competitive landscape under the new regulations.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

If Red Bull underdelivers, Verstappen will still have the freedom and opportunities to move elsewhere for 2027 based on the clauses in his contract. By that time it’s a choice based on evidence instead of a gamble. The only risk is that, if Mercedes will indeed be the dominant force, perhaps they don’t need to invest heavily into a four-time world champion any more.

But one shouldn’t forget that even if the Mercedes engine will be the one to beat, the factory team still has to fight its customer teams – including McLaren. And then the most likely scenario remains that doors will open somewhere if Verstappen needs it for 2027.