The second half of the MLB season starts up on Friday, and before first pitch, I have two teams in the make-or-miss playoff market worth betting on — the San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox, plus a win total on the Cleveland Guardians.
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Boston Red Sox: (-140) to make the playoffs | (+115) to miss the playoffs
The hottest team in all of baseball is the Boston Red Sox, who have won 10 straight games heading into the All-Star break!
That makes this the perfect time to break down their miss or make the playoffs market because this is the best point to sell-high on Boston if you are a non-believer or it could be one of the final times to get a decent price on the Red Sox if you like where this team is headed toward the end of July.
Where do I stand? I am fader. That’s right. I enjoy watching and betting on Sox baseball. I think this team is competitive, but still a few hitters and another youthful pitcher or two away from being serious contenders.
To continue to play devil’s advocate, it’s the schedule in a crowded AL East that does it for me. With records based on the first half of the season, per Tankathon, Boston has the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule (.516 winning %).
Let’s look at the first 15 games of the second half for Boston:
3 road games at the Cubs
3 road games at the Phillies
3 home games vs the Dodgers
3 road games at the Twins
3 home games vs the Astros
I mean, 5-7 wins sounds about right for me out of 15 games, respectively, of course. When you consider the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays all have similar strength of schedules (10th, 15th, 18th) that are easier than the Red Sox’s.
I am going to take the plus-money here for 2 units and say Boston misses the playoffs. In a week or two, this could very well be -150 to -200 pending how the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers series go. I won’t waste time and neither should you. Get some -105, +114 and +115 in my pocket across the three books I play.
Pick: Boston Red Sox to miss the playoffs (2 units)
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
San Diego Padres: (-115) to make the playoffs | (+105) to miss the playoffs
San Diego is currently a slight favorite to YES — that they will make the playoffs market. The Padres are 0.5 game ahead of the Giants for the final wild card spot and within 4.0 games of the Mets and Brewers, who are in the other two spots.
Looking at the second half of the year per Tankathon, San Diego has the 4th-easiest strength of schedule remaining
The Padres open the second-half with three games at the Nationals, three more at the Marlins, then to St. Louis for three more road games as part of a nine-game East Coast road trip. However, we have to admit, those are decent matchups to have a winning record across for a 9-game road trip — in other words, it could be much worse.
After that nine-game road trip, the next 27 games will be on the West Coast for San Diego, whether they are in California, Arizona or Washington (the state). San Diego will be in a prime position to make a run at the playoffs, but I still haven’t gotten to the best part.
The final month of the season is a great opportunity for the Padres to gain ground too — in the final 28 games — 13 of those are against the Orioles, White Sox, and Rockies!
Baltimore could be tanking and we know how atrocious Chicago and Colorado have been the past season and a half. It doesn’t get better than that.
Lay 2 units on the Padres to make the playoffs at -115 or -118 odds — out to -140. I think they nab one of those three Wild Card spots.
Pick: Padres to make the playoffs (2 units)
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Cleveland Guardians: O/U 79.5 Wins
The Cleveland Guardians are 46-49 with 67 games remaining, and of those 67 games, they have the easiest strength of schedule in all of baseball with an opponent winning percentage below 48%.
If you look at the Guardians’ schedule, you’ll wish it were your favorite team’s schedule.
To start the second half of the year, Cleveland hosts the Athletics and Orioles (4-game series) for seven total games, then to Kansas City for a three-game set to return and host the Rockies and Twins for six more home games.
After that, a quick three games in New York with the Mets before facing the White Sox in Chicago for three, and back to hosting the Marlins for a three-game set.
I just gave you the first 24 games of the 67 and the teams were the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies, Twins, Mets, White Sox, and Marlins — beautiful!
It could be a sweaty finish, though, I must admit. The Guardians will host the Royals and White Sox for seven games in mid-September, then a rough patch. Cleveland will play three road games in Detroit, four more in Minnesota, then back at home for six games total hosting Detroit and Texas, so four potential playoff teams over 12 games to finish the season. That’s not nearly as appealing, but doable if they run through the cupcake schedule in July and August.
To reach 80 wins, Cleveland will have to finish the second half with a 34-33 record or better. If the Guardians win three of the first four series out of the break for an 8-5 record or better — we should be feeling good about this play.
Cleveland is also working Shane Bieber back into the mix after having Tommy John surgery in 2024. He makes a rehab start this week, while hitters Lane Thomas and Gabriel Arias are expected back shortly, plus relievers Paul Sewald and Trevor Stephan from the IL — All good news for Cleveland. I like the Guardians to go over 79.5 wins at -110 odds.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians Over 79.5 Wins (2 units)
Vaughn Dalzell’s MLB Futures Card
2 units: Boston Red Sox to miss the playoffs (+115)
2 units: San Diego Padres to make the playoffs (-115)
2 units: Cleveland Guardians Over 79.5 Wins (-110)
2 units: Aaron Judge to lead MLB in home runs (+130)
2 units: Cam Smith to win AL Rookie of the Year (+150)
2 units: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (-110)
1 unit: Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP (-110)
1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+450)
1 unit: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (+2000)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+450)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+115)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+300)
1 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+100)
1 unit: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (+430)
1 unit: New York Yankees to win AL East (-115)
0.5 unit: Dodgers to win 117-plus games (+650)
0.5 unit: Paul Skenes to lead MLB in wins (+1400)
0.5 unit: Garrett Crochet to lead MLB in wins (+2200)
0.5 unit: Juan Soto to lead the MLB in homers (+2800)
0.5 unit: Yordan Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers (+2000)
0.5 unit: Roman Anthony to win AL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
0.5 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1100)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 by the All-Star break (+800)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 for the season (+5500)
0.25 unit: Oneil Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+15000)
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