LAS VEGAS — Adam Silver spun it as a step forward, the next step toward NBA expansion. It felt like the NBA’s existing owners pumping the brakes on that idea.
What the league will be doing now is a more in-depth study, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said at the completion of the NBA Board of Governors’ meeting. There is no timeline for this study to be completed, let alone a timeframe for cities to be chosen — Seattle and Las Vegas remain the clear frontrunners — or for new owners to buy in at whatever the price point becomes, or for teams to start play.
“It’s really day one of that analysis, and so in terms of price, potential timing, it’s too early to say,” Silver said.
While the momentum building toward NBA expansion is still there, this new step in the process feels like a setback to a fan base in Seattle that has been waiting for the league to return. It also feels like some owners want to slow everything down, although Silver would spin it as them being deliberate.
“Ultimately, the league office was tasked by our board with doing an in-depth analysis of all the issues around expansion, both economic and non-economic,” Silver said after the Board of Governors meeting. “Of course, the non-economic issues include dilution of talent, how it could potentially affect competition throughout the league…
“The economic issues, as we knew would be the case in these discussions among the board, they’re very complex because of how you would potentially value the opportunity has a lot to do with your projections on the future growth of the league. Because you are selling equity, and for every additional team you add, you’re diluting the economics of the current league.”
The economic factors are complex, including the challenge most of the league faces in finding good local broadcast solutions to show their games to their local fans. Then there’s franchise valuations — the Celtics recently sold for a valuation of $6.1 billion, and the Lakers sold for a valuation of $10 billion. How much is an expansion franchise worth now, and what will it be worth going forward?
Those economic factors can be worked out if the owners want to, but is there an appetite among the existing 30 owners to expand?
“I think the appetite in the room I would define more as curiosity and more as let’s do the work,” Silver said. “I think if I were an owner, ultimately what you’re considering is, is this additive to the league? And additive can be measured in lots of different ways. There’s additive economically, but I think you’re also thinking from a competitive standpoint, how would particular markets impact our national footprint?”
Silver has suggested in the past that he thinks the league should expand, but at the end of the day he works for the owners and if they want to go slow, if there is not a consensus to move forward, then Silver is the guy tasked with being the face of the decision to study it more.
Seattle (a lock to get a team) and Las Vegas are the frontrunners to be the league’s next franchises, but other cities and entities have reached out to the league. That kind of energy is good for the league, which would like to set a high price and have enough demand to meet it.
What is that price? What are those cities? When will that decision be made? The league will study that in depth, but it will take a while, and this whole process will proceed slowly until then.
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