The biggest challenges Red Bull faces after sacking Horner

With Christian Horner sacked, Red Bull closes a chapter spanning all the highs and lows of the team’s history – one that includes two dominant eras, first with Sebastian Vettel and later with Max Verstappen, but it the recent downturn too.

The narrative pitched to the Thai shareholders that outgoing team members were replaceable and that Horner himself was the key to success no longer held water in 2025.

The decline has been dramatic. In 2023, Red Bull won every race but one. Now, halfway through the 2025 season, both world titles are likely out of reach and the campaign can be written off.

This shows McLaren’s progress but also Red Bull’s decline – and that decline is complex. The RB21’s development curve appears to be a dead end. While still fast, the car only works within an extremely narrow window. Red Bull has failed to expand that window without sacrificing peak performance, whereas McLaren has succeeded.

Operationally, too, things have worsened. Red Bull has made multiple pitstop errors since the departure of Jonathan Wheatley, most notably in Miami and Bahrain. The Bahrain Grand Prix has been the team’s low point this season, especially from an operational point of the view. The crisis meeting after that race was already a sign of things to come, with frustration boiling. Strategy hasn’t always been on the level Red Bull has shown in the past either, as shown by the call for hard tyres in Barcelona.

The complexity and breadth of the issues indicate that 2025 is beyond saving. Red Bull will introduce another set of upgrades before the summer break, but as team advisor Helmut Marko has already admitted, they won’t turn the season around. Whether it’s Laurent Mekies or Horner at the helm, the outcome will likely be the same. There’s no quick fix as the problems are deep-rooted and rebuilding will take time.

Ironically, Horner himself admitted this during what turned out to be his final FIA press conference as the Red Bull boss: “I remember Dietrich Mateschitz telling me at the time, we don’t need the best driver if we don’t have the best car. At that stage, it was about building a team. Things go in cycles and sport goes in cycles. We’ve had two incredibly successful cycles in Formula 1, and what we want to do is build towards the next cycle.”

It’s exactly where Red Bull stands – except now, that building process will be without Horner.

How crucial is retaining Verstappen?

The foundation for a new era rests on four pillars: the in-house engine project, the technical team, team culture and the driver line-up. But in 2025, the situation differs a bit from what Mateschitz said 20 years ago. Back then, Red Bull had to prove that it could build a competitive car. Signing Adrian Newey was more important than signing a star driver.

Now, Red Bull already has a star driver and the team has grown heavily dependent on him in recent years. If Tsunoda’s points since joining the main team (seven) were doubled for two cars, Red Bull would be last in the constructors’ championship.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

The consequences of losing Verstappen would go far beyond just swapping out a driver. He’s the only one to consistently extract performance from the current car, meaning the team and technical philosophy would need a rethink without him.

This isn’t because the car is designed solely around him, but rather due to a self-reinforcing cycle: Verstappen is the only Red Bull driver to deliver on track, so the team has to maximise its chances by listening to his feedback. Naturally the car evolves, which in turn makes it even harder for any team-mate to succeed. That makes Verstappen the only driver to deliver on track, and then the cycle starts again.

If Verstappen were to leave, Red Bull would need to partially reinvent its philosophy. At least the new rules require that new philosophy for 2026 anyway.

The second seat remains a problem as well. Red Bull’s leadership now acknowledges that the issue is mostly car-related, with Marko making some interesting comments after Alex Dunne’s FP1 outing with McLaren. New team boss Mekies, who knows Tsunoda well from Racing Bulls, is a good fit to work with younger drivers – but here there’s no quick fix either. Tsunoda will finish the season, but with Honda’s exit looming, Red Bull still needs to decide who fills that seat in 2026.

Engine project: long-term potential, but a tricky start?

The in-house engine project with Ford is a critical piece of Red Bull’s future. Ford Performance global director Mark Rushbrook told Autosport that Red Bull Powertrains and Ford were hitting most milestones, but acknowledged it’s impossible for a newcomer to nail all of them immediately.

Red Bull Ford Powertrains

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

In his last press conference, Horner echoed that sentiment, saying it would be “embarrassing” for Mercedes if Red Bull were ahead of them. This partly is expectation management, as Red Bull emphasised that guiding principle during a factory tour as well: “We want to underpromise and overdeliver.” At the same time, beating manufacturers with decades of experience straight away is highly unlikely.

Red Bull has described its engine project as a long-term investment. “What’s great is having it all under one roof, chassis engineers sitting next to engine engineers. That shouldn’t be underestimated when you’re talking about the packaging,” Horner said. “When you’ve got the ability to have those groups communicating and talking with each other directly over a cup of coffee and within the same facility, that is priceless, and that will pay dividends. Maybe it won’t be in ’26, but ’27, ’28, and beyond, long-term for Red Bull, 100% it is the right thing.”

It makes sense for Red Bull to become fully independent and avoid the scenarios that previously played out with Renault and Honda. That independence and better integration of the power unit into the chassis may pay off at some point, but 2026 will still be an enormous challenge.

What’s causing the current technical hardship?

During the difficulties with Renault, Red Bull still had a very competitive chassis and aerodynamic package. But now that is a question mark as well. Since Miami 2024, Red Bull has struggled and the technical team hasn’t found a way to turn it around. The new leadership must ask: is this due to outdated tools or people leaving?

That last aspect is not just about Adrian Newey, but perhaps even more former chief engineering officer Rob Marshall. Asked by Autosport whether Marshall was now making the difference at McLaren, Verstappen replied: “I think that is pretty clear.”

Jonathan Wheatley, Team Manager, Red Bull Racing, Rob Marshall, Chief Designer, McLaren F1 Team, David Coulthard, Presenter

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Still, Horner repeatedly insisted there was “strength and depth” in the team. “Fundamentally, it’s the same group of people that designed a car which won every race but one just 18 months ago. Those people didn’t suddenly become idiots overnight.”

Indeed, Red Bull still has major figures like technical director Pierre Wache, head of performance engineering Ben Waterhouse, and chief engineer Paul Monaghan. But without Newey, whom Wache described as someone who constantly “challenged” the technical team, they have something to prove in 2026.

The team often points to its outdated wind tunnel as the main limitation. That makes 2026 an interesting test. Horner has repeatedly explained that the wind tunnel becomes more of a limiting factor under stable regulations, where the margins are finer. With a clean sheet of paper, he believes the disadvantage will be smaller for the first, big steps in 2026. But if Red Bull still underperforms then, that might be an indication. A new wind tunnel is due to go online in 2026, but will have more of an effect on the 2027 machinery. It’s too late to affect the regulation shift from the very start.

Can Red Bull follow McLaren’s example?

All of this places Red Bull in a transitional phase. Success in 2025 is out of reach – barring the odd race win – and 2026 hinges mostly on the engine project. Mekies is unlikely to immediately impact the on-track performance, but that doesn’t mean the timing of his appointment is meaningless.

This phase is critical, just as it was for McLaren when they began rebuilding after hitting rock bottom. Now is Red Bull’s time to learn and look ahead. They must examine technical problems since Miami, and more importantly, take lessons from it.

Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

Team culture matters as well: the internal power struggles haven’t done the team any good, meaning Red Bull needs unity and stability. That’s arguably Mekies’ biggest job in the upcoming months; not instant success, but creating calm in the team and laying the foundation for future success.

As Horner said, this is the time for Red Bull to build for a potentially third winning era. That must happen without him and, critically, whether Verstappen is part of that building process remains to be seen.