“Very little probability” of Verstappen joining Mercedes F1 in 2026

Mercedes chief Toto Wolff has admitted that the probability of four-time Formula 1 champion Max Verstappen signing with the Brackley outfit is low. 

There has been a lot of talk at this weekend’s Austrian Grand Prix about discussions between Wolff and Verstappen, while George Russell’s Mercedes contract remains up in the air for 2026.

While Wolff confirmed that as team principal he has a duty to explore the option of a four-time champion joining the team, he states that Russell and his rookie team-mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli are “the future”.

“I think when you look at the situation we have with Kimi and George, we have a perfect line-up that we very much enjoy and that we believe is the future,” Wolff explained to Sky Sports F1.

“But, at the same time, there is a four-time world champion that needs to decide what he is going to do in the future, and that is just, as a team principal, you need to see where that is going.

“But I think I give it a very little probability that it’s going to happen.”

When asked to clarify if he believes there is “little probability” for 2026 or at all, the Austrian responded, “You don’t know what’s going to be in three or five years, that’s why you need to look at what is it that should be considered on the long term.”

As both Russell and Antonelli wait for their 2026 contracts, Wolff avoided putting a timeline on how long the team would bide its time for a decision from Verstappen before putting pen to paper on contracts for the current driver line-up.

“Nothing needs in a way to come favourable for us, because with George and Kimi is what we want to be and what we want to continue,” said Wolff.

“But in order to plan right for the long-term future you’ve got to understand what other people do.” 

After securing his first grand prix win of the season in Canada, Russell has impressed Wolff, who claimed he is “doing a splendid job all throughout the year”.

He added: “We haven’t seen any mistakes. The pace was there. And there’s nothing to doubt in George.”