While teams from New York to Los Angeles and everywhere in between — as well as north into Canada — have mapped out their strategies for a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market, those plans increasingly look like they will be DOA.
The Antetokounmpo trade market is very quiet and teams are increasingly coming to the idea he is not going to hit the open market, something Jake Fischer talked about at Bleacher Report:
“Around the combine two weeks ago, two and a half weeks ago, there was no shortage of optimism, of hope, of excitement from other teams that they were going to be able to potentially make an offer to get Giannis Antetokounmpo into their franchise, into their building. Of late, I’d say that that confidence has been replaced with skepticism. To a man, from talking to agents, team executives, whoever, there is not a lot of belief right now at this juncture… the expectation is that they’re going to believe it when they see it — that someone who has valued being the franchise face, that the central linchpin of the Bucks franchise, is going to want to play somewhere else.”
One league source echoed that, telling NBC Sports that his team was in “wait and see” mode. Fischer said that whatever decision Antetokounmpo and the Bucks make, it will likely be made close to the draft.
Another possibility is that there will be no bidding war, that Antetokounmpo will inform the Bucks that they can only trade him to one or two teams. If a fair deal is not found, then it will end there, and he will stay in Milwaukee.
The decision to stay or go ultimately falls to Antetokounmpo, who loves Milwaukee, his family is happy there, and he cherishes the idea of being a one-team player for his entire career, but also realizes that in the wake of Damian Lillard’s Achilles injury the Bucks are not going to contend for a title next season. He has to decide what matters most to him at this stage of his career.
The other challenge Antetokounmpo faces is that the grass is not always greener elsewhere. He could be traded to a team such as Houston or San Antonio and make them instant title contenders, but would then moved to a stacked Western Conference with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the 68-win Thunder, Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, Antony Edwards and the Timberwolves, LeBron James and Luka Doncic with the Lakers, Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler with the Warriors, and on down the line. Even with Antetokounmpo, it would be tough to reach the Finals out of the West. He could demand to stay in the East, but with what the Bucks will ask in return, a trade to any team in that conference — New York, Toronto, Miami, Cleveland, wherever — strips that roster so far down of talent that he is in the same situation he is in Milwaukee (a top-three MVP season got the Bucks the five seed and a first-round playoff exit).
Whatever decision is coming, don’t expect it to come anytime soon.
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