PHOENIX — The Pittsburgh Pirates are about to reach a crisis point when it comes to the future of the franchise.
Do they sign stellar starting pitcher Paul Skenes, the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year, for at least five seasons to cover his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, or do they trade him before he even gets to that point?
If they don’t trade or sign him, his price in each of his three arbitration years could prove to be very prohibitive for a franchise that has a $114.2 million payroll for tax purposes this season per Spotrac, which is 26th in Major League Baseball. That’s the second-lowest payroll in the National League to Miami’s $85.2 million.
Skenes, who is earning a second-year minimum salary of $875,000 this season, has not yet held contract talks with the Pirates, the right-hander said after earning the win in a 10-1 drubbing of the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday at Chase Field.
“That hasn’t happened,” Skenes, the No. 1 draft pick from 2023 out of LSU, said. “This is about the here and now. I’m not in any rush for a decision to be made like that. I don’t think they are, either.”
Skenes is this decade’s Gerrit Cole, as far as the Pirates are concerned. Cole was picked first overall by the Pirates in the 2011 draft and was ultimately traded to the Houston Astros in 2018 before he could reach free agency—something that still irks Cole. The right-handed pitcher went on to sign a nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees in 2019; he is out this season and into next after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. That deal was way too rich for Pittsburgh’s blood then, and it certainly would be even at half that amount now.
Skenes, turning 23 on Thursday, is constrained by the early restrictions the collective bargaining agreement places on young players. Even Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, who won the American League Cy Young Award last year, is a little more advanced, making $10.15 million this year after signing a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. He has one more year of arbitration before heading into free agency in 2027.
Skenes? “I’m tied up until 2030, I think,” the Pirates ace said.
And already the trade rumors are rolling. Does he pay any attention to all that?
“What trade rumors?” he said. “I don’t think any of that is for real.”
But unless the Pirates make a contractual overture, the rumors will persist.
One would think it would be in the Pirates’ best interest to do something long-term at what might now be a discount price. For example, the Diamondbacks signed outfielder and speedster Corbin Carroll in 2023 at age 22 for eight years, $111 million, wiping out his arbitration years and early free agency, which doesn’t begin by rule until a player has finished his sixth season. That gives the club more control and the player some much-needed security. MLB contracts are guaranteed if a player is hurt.
In Skenes’ case, he was the NL All-Star starter last year at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas and a player the Pirates would want to build around, you’d think.
“No doubt,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said. “A [player like] Paul Skenes doesn’t come around very often, maybe ever. There are few pitchers like that. When I was younger I got to play with [Justin] Verlander and [Max] Scherzer. You see the same thing in Paul. He’s definitely the kind of guy you want to build around.”
But that depends upon the Pirates and their thrifty ways. The club’s assistant general manager Bryan Stroh was on the road trip but declined to make himself available to answer questions about the subject.
In essence, the Pirates don’t get much of an attendance bump when Skenes is starting at PNC Park as opposed to the rest of their home schedule. They average 17,120 fans a game at PNC Park, 26th in MLB, and 18,937 in the five starts thus far this season that Skenes has made—and that includes the 37,713 who showed up on April 19 in a loss to Cleveland when the team gave away a Skenes bobblehead.
Demand was so high for the bobblehead that fans lined up early across the Roberto Clemente Bridge into downtown Pittsburgh. Initially, only the first 20,000 through the gates were to obtain the prized possession. But when owner Bob Nutting saw the commotion, he guaranteed a bobblehead to all fans in attendance handing out a voucher when fans scanned their tickets. It was such a great promotion that the Pirates are planning to give away a Paul Skenes Superman bobblehead for their game against the Texas Rangers at PNC Park on June 22.
Perhaps that’s to avoid these kind of attendance results: 8,291 to see Skenes pitch in an April 8 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals and 13,633 to see Skenes lose to the Chicago Cubs on May 1.
The largest crowd to see Skenes pitch this season was 53,055 at Dodger Stadium on April 25. The right-hander excelled that night by pitching into the seventh inning in a win, holding the Dodgers to no runs, five hits while striking out nine on 108 pitches.
Similarly, on Wednesday he allowed no runs on four hits while whiffing seven on 96 pitches before Kelly plucked him with two out in the seventh in front of another strong road crowd of 25,202.
If he’s more popular on the road and less of a payday at home, the Pirate might as well trade him than extend. But that all remains to be seen.
“It’s all probably a long way away,” Skenes said. “We have a good core and good opportunity to do so something significant in Pittsburgh.”
Is this where he wants to be long term?
“I don’t know,” he said. “Just hear them out.”
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