To trade, or not to trade. That is the question for the Houston Rockets as they enter the 2025 offseason fresh off an impressive run featuring a plethora of players who haven’t even turned 25 yet.
After a Game 7 loss to the Golden State Warriors — a loss the franchise will need time to shake off before they do anything drastic — attention now turns to the offseason, as well as overarching evaluations.
Some things are pretty clear, such as Amen Thompson being at worst the team’s second-best player. Others are more difficult, such as whether Jalen Green is even on the roster next season.
The Rockets lost due to a severe lack of offensive creation. Their defense was outstanding, and while that’s a tremendous building block for the future, they simply need to be able to create something when things slow down, and they currently can’t.
As such, it might appear odd to pivot off Green, who after all is a scorer, but if you remove his 38-point explosion in Game 2, he was left averaging 9.1 points for the other six games of the series. That’s abysmal production for a player who is going to earn well over $33 million next season, and who doesn’t have a secondary skill set.
Of course, some of that might be because he’s miscast and playing a role that’s too big for what his talent can handle. If so, the need for a real No. 1 star becomes all the more pressing.
Fortunately, Houston does know they can get reliable production from Thompson and Alperen Şengün.
Thompson, who might actually be the most athletic player in the league, took a noticeable step in his offensive evolution this season, and the team hopes his shooting (which is bad right now) improves to a point where his entire offensive game will be unlocked because of it.
Şengün is an elite playmaker at the center position, and the 6-foot-11 big man can score in the post and around it. However, like Thompson, Şengün also isn’t an elite floor spacer. So we can sort of sum up here that the team has plenty of internal discussions ahead, despite its impressive season.
But the organization must not rush. The roster is young. It’s deep. It’s loaded with potential. Swinging for the fences for a 37-year-old Kevin Durant, and relinquishing a major package in the process, would seem awfully panicky.
2024-25 finish
Record: 52-30, finished second in the Western Conference. Lost to the Warriors in seven games in the first round.
Highlight of the season
Frankly, it’s not one moment. It’s numerous. We’ve got to talk about Thompson again. He and Tari Eason won the Rockets a ton of games via their absolutely ridiculous two-way games off the bench, and Thompson especially took steps every month to reach a level where there’s now a legit conversation about whether or not he should even be available in trade talks. Averages of 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds may not sound like much, but Thompson is one of those players whose impact far outweighs that of his numbers. If the Rockets have found their guy moving forward, that certainly qualifies as their highlight of the season.
Players signed for next season
Dillon Brooks
Tari Eason
Jalen Green
Alperen Şengün
Reed Sheppard
Jabari Smith Jr.
Amen Thompson
Cam Whitmore
Key free agents
Fred VanVleet (team option)
Steven Adams (UFA)
Jae’Sean Tate (UFA)
Projected salary
$130,262,475 (salary cap expected to be $154.6 million)
Draft picks (pre-lottery)
No. 9
No. 59
Draft focus: Shooting, shooting, and more shooting. This team is in dire need of optimized floor spacing, especially to help Thompson and Şengün reach their full potential. They shouldn’t sacrifice otherworldly talent for shooting if that’s available, but more than likely — especially these days — elite talent has shooting capabilities.
Given VanVleet’s near-$45 million team option, which the organization is likely to pick up, this brings their total salary up to almost $175 million. They’re also adding the salary slot of what is likely to be the ninth overall selection, and likely re-signing a few of their remaining free agents. In short, the Rockets will find themselves flirting with the tax line of $187.9 million, if not exceeding it outright, meaning we shouldn’t expect the full non-tax mid-level exception to be used here. If they exceed the tax, it’ll exclusively be the tax MLE they have at their disposal.
Needs and goals
The Rockets clearly wish for two things at the same time. They want to get better, and they don’t want to trade half of the rotation for one player, unless that player is 2012 LeBron James. Their depth played a big part in their success, and they’re obviously aware of that. They do have needs, especially in the form of spacing, and they may still need a primary scorer. But they aren’t in any rush, and that’s a good thing. Unless a superstar trade benefits them greatly, they’re probably going to wait for the trade deadline to see what shakes loose.
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