They’re called free throws for a reason. Opponents aren’t supposed to be able to affect them. But Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer devised a plan to make his team’s fans an obstacle at the charity stripe.
In their first regular season playing in the brand new $2 billion Intuit Dome, Clippers’ home opponents shot 74.8% from the free throw line, the second-lowest rate in any NBA arena, ahead of only the Houston Rockets’ Toyota Center (74.0%).
One unique feature of the Clippers’ building is The Wall: an unusually steep section with 51 rows of seats behind the basket adjacent to the away team’s bench. Only certified Clipper fans are permitted to sit there, and cheering for another NBA team is forbidden. There are no suites, and there’s a Supporters Section reserved for diehards who are expected to stand throughout the game. Season passes are sold at an accessible price point.
Shooting against The Wall, specifically, visitors made just 73.4% of their foul shots, which would have ranked last in the NBA and is notably lower than the 76.1% they made on the other end of the floor.
“Yeah, it was crazy,” Phoenix Suns’ Kevin Durant said of The Wall in October after missing two fourth-quarter free throws facing in its direction. “I was just staring at it the whole time. You’re not used to that.”
The 3.3% disparity between opponent foul shooting at the Intuit Dome and the average NBA arena isn’t abnormal. A comparable or greater decline has been seen in at least one arena during each season since 2011.
The 4.7% dip versus The Wall, however, is an eye-opener. Comparing percentages on one end of a court with overall percentage isn’t apples to apples, but a larger drop in accuracy has only happened once in any home arena since 2000: when opponents visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2014 made 69.8% of free throws from both ends combined, a wacky 5.8% below the league average.
The next season, though, in 2015, Oklahoma City’s foes completely reverted to the mean. In fact, over the past 20 years, there is nearly zero correlation between away teams’ free throw percentage in an arena and their percentage in that same arena the following season. This suggests that home teams don’t have control over how well visitors shoot from the stripe.
Being on the road at all has a minimal impact, at best. A study by Mike Beuoy showed that home teams shot just 0.2% better on free throws than away teams over the 20-year period between 1995 and 2015.
A deeper dive into the numbers does reveal some patterns. Since Ball Arena opened in 1999, the Denver Nuggets’ home opponents have shot 1.1% below league average from the line, the biggest disparity of any team, over a massive sample of more than 20,000 attempts. This data point tracks with Sportico’s previous analysis regarding Denver’s outsized home court advantage due to opponents’ difficulty acclimating to the mile-high altitude. Beuoy also found other results that “appear to be more than just statistical fluctuation” indicating that certain arenas, such as the Toyota Center, may have an anti-shooter bias.
So it is possible that Ballmer has defied the odds and actually created an arena with a legitimate, built-in competitive edge. Potential alternative explanations—that the Clippers happened to face worse shooting teams, or that they selectively avoided fouling elite shooters—fall short upon scrutiny.
Furthermore, the Clippers’ edge extends beyond free throws. Road teams shot 33.5% on 3-pointers in the Intuit Dome this year, which also ranked second-lowest among all arenas. Once again, opponents shot worse when facing The Wall—a meager 32.9% from beyond the arc.
Overall, the Clippers had just the 11th-best net rating (i.e. pace-adjusted point differential) on the road (+0.4), but the third best at home (+9.4). That 9.0 boost in net rating at home, although not an outlier by any means, was the largest in the NBA this season.
Head coach Tyronn Lue feels that the team’s home court advantage is greater than in past years. “We have our own building. We don’t have to worry about other banners hanging up. We don’t share an arena. This is home,” Lue told reporters last week. “The Wall has been great. Our fans have been great.”
The idea for The Wall was born many years ago when folks from the Bundesliga soccer team Dortmund asked to meet with Clippers president of business operations Gillian Zucker and other executives. The Clippers became interested in the Yellow Wall, Dortmund’s standing fan section with a capacity of nearly 25,000. “They were picking our brains, and then we decided to pick theirs a little bit,” Zucker said.
The organization devoted a team to research fan sections across college sports, European leagues and around the world, which eventually led to the concept for The Wall.
Helping the team win was a primary motivator for the new arena project. “[Ballmer] went from believing that being a tenant in a building was a great asset to believing that the only way truly to field the most competitive team possible is to have your own arena,” Zucker said.
The Clippers believe other features of their venue provide additional advantages. The 44,000 square foot LED “Halo” scoreboard gives the franchise a huge canvas with which to engage fans. The ability to show multiple replay angles concurrently can also help the coaching staff decide whether or not to challenge calls.
Decibel readers in the rafters of the arena can measure the loudest seats in the building, and the Clippers reward those fans with prizes to incentivize more fervent cheering.
The facility as a whole is designed to keep fans in their seats during the action, from frictionless commerce to an abundance of restrooms to countdown clocks that tell people how much time they have to get back to the game.
Interestingly, the Clippers’ opponent in the first round of the playoffs is the one team with a well-documented exceptional home court advantage over multiple decades: the Nuggets. Denver has the league’s second-best home winning percentage this century as well as the largest differential between home and road net rating. And it’s not a fluke—Denver’s abnormally strong performance in Colorado extends to MLB and the NFL and NHL.
Time will tell if the Clippers’ advantage is real. One season is still a miniscule sample size. If opponents had made just seven more free throws against The Wall this season, their percentage on that basket would have risen above 75% and this story would probably have been moot.
With a few more years of data, we’ll have a better idea of whether the Intuit Dome is a precedent-setter for professional sports venues or simply Ballmer’s folly.
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