Why Bagnaia may face more pain before he can take the fight to Marquez in MotoGP 2025

Marc Marquez’s dominant showing in last weekend’s Thailand Grand Prix must have left alarm bells ringing for Francesco Bagnaia. So impressive was the Spaniard during the 2025 MotoGP season-opener that even Ducati was left amazed by his performance. All Bagnaia could do was sit and watch as Marquez made the perfect start with a team that the Italian has called home for over four seasons now.

Unfortunately, the writing has been on the wall for some time.

As early as the Sepang test, it was clear that Marquez had an early advantage over Bagnaia, despite joining a new team and making a fairly significant jump from the GP23 he rode last year. While Ducati’s primary focus at Sepang was to figure out which version of the engine to homologate for 2025, both riders also got to focus on their individual performances and Marquez’s sprint simulation put him comfortably clear of Bagnaia.

But it’s the Buriram test where the six-time MotoGP champion really inched clear of his team-mate.

While Bagnaia essentially lost the opening day of running due to a series of problems, claiming ‘nothing was working all day’, Marquez made serious progress in understanding the bike on both a single lap and on long runs.

Marquez even completed a full race simulation on the second day of the test – and caught the attention of the onlookers with it – while Bagnaia simply didn’t have the time to complete such a long run after having to ‘start from zero’ in light of his day one troubles.

By the time the MotoGP field reconvened in Buriram, it was clear that Marquez had a headstart over Bagnaia, and no matter what the two-time MotoGP champion did, he wasn’t able to close the gap to the front. Marquez ended up dominating the weekend from start to finish, following up his pole position with a double win, while Bagnaia was forced to settle for third in both races, behind the Gresini bike of Alex Marquez. 

It’s also clear that the Thai venue was simply better for Marc Marquez than it was Bagnaia. The latter is famous for making huge improvements overnight based on the data he collects in sprints, but this time there was nothing Bagnaia could pull out of the bag to put himself into victory contention.

Unfortunately for Bagnaia, the status quo may continue at the next two rounds in Argentina and America, before he has any chance of taking the fight to Marquez and turning the 2025 season into an intra-Ducati title battle. Following last weekend’s Thai GP, MotoGP will head to Argentina this month, a country that has been a happy hunting ground for Marquez. The Spaniard won the race on Termas de Rio Hondo’s debut on the MotoGP calendar in 2014 and repeated that feat in ‘19 in his sixth title-winning season with Honda. 

Bagnaia, on the other hand, has never finished higher than fifth in Argentina. On MotoGP’s last visit to the circuit, he crashed while running in second and ended up outside the points. The fact that Alex Marquez also goes around well in Argentina complicates things further for Bagnaia.

Even Bagnaia conceded that he might be forced to go into damage limitation mode across the next two rounds, moments after stating that “I’m not here to finish third”

The younger of the Marquez brothers claimed pole at Termas de Rio Hondo in 2023 and finished on the podium the same year, incidentally after battling with Bagnaia. It was bad enough for Bagnaia that he couldn’t keep up with Marc Marquez in last weekend’s Thai GP, but being defeated fair and square by Alex Marquez only added to his troubles.

After Argentina, MotoGP will visit the Circuit of the Americas, a track where Marc Marquez has been near-invincible in the past. Marquez was so dominant at Austin that he was dubbed the ‘King of COTA’ after winning the American race for six consecutive seasons between 2013-18. He claimed a seventh victory at Austin in 2021, just over a year after sustaining a career-altering shoulder injury at Jerez.

Marquez will be the first to say that his winning record at Austin is of little value, as he scored all seven of those victories on a vastly different Honda RC213V. But there’s no denying that on a bike as versatile as the Ducati, Marquez will be nearly impossible to beat in Texas. 

Next up is Argentina and Texas, two events where Marquez is MotoGP’s most successful rider in the modern era meaning he has a great chance to establish a significant lead over his team-mate

Photo by: Dorna

Again, history doesn’t favour Bagnaia in the US, where he has only a single podium finish under his belt. As such, the Qatar Grand Prix in April is expected to be the race where he can be a match. Bagnaia won at Losail last year and also scored podiums at the same track in 2021 and ‘23. By the third round of 2025, the Italian is also likely to have racked up enough miles to negate Marquez’s early advantage and put up more of a fight for the world championship.

Even Bagnaia conceded that he might be forced to go into damage limitation mode across the next two rounds, moments after stating that “I’m not here to finish third”.

“Argentina and Austin, we know perfectly are two tracks [that are strong for Marquez],” he admitted. “Also for Alex, Argentina is very good. It’s very good for many [other] riders. So we need to work a lot and try to close that gap. but you never know. Sometimes when you start a race weekend you feel fantastic and everything comes to you easily. We will try to do it. Already two seasons we are not going there and I can’t imagine the situation in terms of grip we will find. The maximum will be not to lose many points or gain [as many] points in the next two grands prix. 

“Then we go to Qatar and Jerez and those are two tracks that are very good for Marc but more on my side.”

Discounting Bagnaia from the equation after the 2025 opener would simply be too naive, even after taking into account just how quickly Marquez has adapted to his new surroundings at Ducati.

One can always count on the two-time champion to come back stronger when the situation demands, and this is the biggest challenge he has faced in his career so far. While Marquez is now expected to be more consistent and risk-averse than he was in the 2010s with Honda, even Bagnaia will be stronger this year after his agonising title defeat in 2024.

How the pendulum shifts between the two this season will be fascinating to watch.

Is Bagnaia going to overcome his agonising defeat in 2024 or will Marquez romp towards a seventh MotoGP crown?

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images