Joel Embiid looked like a shell of his dominant, MVP self Thursday night as the season’s stretch run got underway. Despite having a week off to rest around the All-Star break, Embiid looked a step slow and scored 15 points on 3-of-9 shooting, with just three rebounds. Philadelphia was routed on their home court by Boston, 124-104.
After the game, Embiid admitted that his left knee — the one he had meniscus surgery on last February — is still an issue. Here is what he said, via Noah Levick at NBC Sports Philadelphia.
“I’m sure you can figure it out. The way I was playing a year ago is not the way I’m playing right now and it sucks. But I believe I probably need to fix the problem and I’ll be back at that level…
“But my dominant self, I’ll get there. It’s just tough because you know you can do so much more. There’s no excuses; it’s just the way it is. Just got to keep finding ways to figure it out and get better.”
“I believe I probably need to fix the problem” echoes Embiid’s comments from before the All-Star break that he will likely need “another surgery and a long recovery period” on his left knee to fully solve the problem.
Add to that Paul George saying after the game that he is playing through pain to be available.
“I’m hanging in there,” George said. “I’m just trying to give this team everything I have. The report is true. I am taking some sorts of medicines to kind of play through pain. But yeah, I’m going to try to give it everything I’ve got.”
Time for 76ers to shut it down?
Daryl Morey and Philadelphia management are at a pivot point in the season: Is it time to chase the No. 10 seed or shut it down and chase the NBA Draft lottery?
The answer seems clear: Embiid and George are at increased risk for more serious health issues by playing through pain. And for what? It’s time for the 76ers to throw in the towel on this season, tell Embiid to get surgery or do whatever it takes to be right for next season, sit PG13 so he can get right, and start to tank to keep their first-round pick.
Could Philadelphia make the postseason? Yes. The 76ers (and Nets) are 1.5 games back of the Bulls for the No. 10 seed in the East, 5.5 games behind the Hawks for the No. 9 seed, (and 9 games behind the surprising Pistons for the No. 6 seed and avoiding the play-in, that’s not happening). There are zero expectations that Philadelphia will make a deep playoff run this season, especially with two of their three stars players limping along.
Realistically, if Philadephia can string together some wins — not a given, they have lost six in a row — it could make up the 1.5 games it is behind Chicago for the No. 10 seed and make it into the play-in. In a dream scenario, with some help, Philly maybe could win enough games to catch Atlanta for the No. 9 seed. But in either case, that means two win-or-go-home play-in games, and if the 76ers take both of those games they are rewarded with the No. 8 seed and going on the road to face a very talented and deep Cleveland team with a chip on its shoulder.
If the 76ers shut it down, they could end up with a high draft pick.
Philadelphia owes its first-round draft pick to Oklahoma City, but it is top-six protected. Philadelphia is tied with Brooklyn for the sixth-worst record in the NBA. As of today, assuming that Philly has the sixth-worst record in the league (not seventh), it has a 43.4% chance of retaining its pick through the NBA Draft Lottery and a 56.6% they still lose it (and a 52.4% chance OKC would pick No. 7 or 8, like that team isn’t already deep and young enough). The rest of the way, Philadelphia would need to lose more games than Brooklyn to maintain that ranking.
Toronto is three games behind Philadelphia in the standings, but the Raptors have a healthy Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett and have had stretches of strong play recently (although they lost 5-of-6 heading into the All-Star break). It’s possible the 76ers could fall behind Toronto in the standings before the end of the season, which would improve their odds of holding on to their pick to 63.9%.
It’s decision time in Philadelphia. Should they chase the play-in or start focusing on next season? The choice seems clear from the outside, but it is tougher to make inside the building of a team that came into the season with sky-high expectations. Still, it’s time.
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