The Nuggets have spent years trying to survive the minutes without Nikola Jokić. They’ve won plenty of games and a championship along the way, but the problem has kept coming back. Over the past five regular seasons, Denver has a +10.8 net rating with Jokić and a -7.5 net rating without him, per Databallr. Even with Jamal Murray on the floor without Jokić, Denver’s net rating was -5.8.
Denver has brought in everyone from DeMarcus Cousins to DeAndre Jordan to Jonas Valančiūnas. This year’s group? Marvin Bagley, DaRon Holmes, Zeke Nnaji, and Trevon Brazile. Now that Jokić is 31 years old, it sure would be nice if he could take a breather without the lead disappearing. But if those are Denver’s options behind him, I’d be quite nervous if I were a Nuggets fan.
Oddly enough, the arrival of DeMar DeRozan might help. Even though DeRozan just turned 37, he remains one of the NBA’s most efficient isolation, post-up, and pick-and-roll scorers. He’s also a talented passer who maintains a low turnover rate. All four of Denver’s backup bigs can shoot 3s to different degrees of success, and Bagley is a good athlete while the rookie second-rounder, Brazile, is a sensational one. With DeRozan creating shots, the Nuggets could simplify the offense for their backup bigs by asking them to simply screen, roll, crash the boards, and hit an occasional 3. Nuggets head coach David Adelman has a variety of options to play around with to find out what works best.
(Jonathan Castro/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
The bigger questions come on defense. None of these four bigs has established himself as an interior enforcer. Brazile has the explosiveness for highlight-reel blocks, but he is only 220 pounds and lacks the bulk to battle NBA bigs. There’s hope that Holmes can recapture the form he showed at Dayton before an Achilles injury derailed his rookie season, but he didn’t look like his old self once he returned last season. And the more experienced options don’t inspire much confidence either. How many years have Nuggets fans been ready to move on from Nnaji? And with Bagley on his sixth team in his ninth season, expecting him to finally turn his athleticism into dependable defense requires a lot of wishful thinking.
And that uncertainty extends beyond the backup centers. DeRozan can generate buckets, but he rarely shoots 3s. Pairing him with bigs, whose jumpers opponents are willing to concede, could give defenses room to crowd his drives. Even though Jokić made things work with Russell Westbrook during their lone regular season together, that success collapsed in the playoffs. DeRozan’s reluctance to shoot 3s and defensive limitations create some of the same concerns once the postseason comes around.
The Nuggets also added point guard Tyus Jones, who is coming off the worst season of his career and got traded twice. If he can rediscover the steady playmaking and roughly 40% 3-point shooting he provided over the previous four seasons, he could help stabilize Denver’s bench. But we’ll see in time. Not all small guards can sustain success into their 30s, and regardless of what they do on offense, a backcourt with Jones and DeRozan projects as a turnstile defensively.
Aaron Gordon hasn’t finished either of the past two seasons healthy, while Christian Braun followed his big contract extension with the worst season of his young career while being disrupted by injuries. The Nuggets also lost Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. They retained Spencer Jones, a solid role player, and Julian Strawther, who has yet to establish himself. This is a roster on thin ice if the starters miss as many games as they did last season, which makes Denver quite difficult to project.
Jokić on his own solves a lot of problems, and maybe Gordon will finish a season healthy, Braun will look like himself again, DeRozan will provide a spark off the bench, and one of the backup bigs will end up dependable. But I’m worried about how many things the Nuggets need to go right compared to their West rivals.
In the back of the minds of Denver fans, too, has to be the future of Jokić.
“My idea and desire is to stay in Denver. I’ll probably sign next year,” Jokić told reporters in Serbian in July.
I believe him. Every league source I’ve spoken to over the years and in recent weeks has reiterated that no one really expects Jokić to leave Denver. Waiting also makes financial sense: Next summer, he could sign a projected five-year, $360 million deal — the richest deal in NBA history.
But his desire to stay shouldn’t make Denver comfortable with wasting another year of his prime. The Nuggets need to give him a supporting cast that can help turn that expected commitment into another championship.
And besides: Never say never. Jokić could sign elsewhere for a projected $267 million over four years, compared to roughly $278 million over the same span in Denver. A team in a state without income tax could narrow that gap, even accounting for taxes on road games. Denver’s biggest financial advantage is the roughly $82 million guaranteed for the fifth year of his deal. If Denver can’t get back into contention, a better chance to win could make that tradeoff worth considering.
Jokić says he wants to spend the rest of his career in Denver. Now the Nuggets need to show they know what to do with the time he’s giving them.
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