The Orioles backed themselves into a corner where they probably need to win every remaining game or all but one remaining game in order to make the postseason. They responded to being in that corner by sweeping the Mets, a not very good team, in a series where the Mets fans were all continually cheering for the best Orioles player. Now they are back in Baltimore to face the team in MLB with the best record so far this season, the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee has been laying waste to just about all comers as this season goes along. Their 95-58 record is the best thing anybody has going on this year. They have already clinched their division title, and at this point they only “need” to win games to make sure they stay ahead of the Dodgers for the #1 seed in the National League. The back-to-back champions are currently at 93 wins. That one isn’t a done deal yet for the Brewers.
One part of why the Brewers have been able to do this is the absolute freak Jacob Misiorowski, a second-year starting pitcher who’s taken a big leap this year after a mixed bag rookie season a year ago. Misiorowski is averaging over 100mph on his fastball and it’s proving mostly unhittable, which is how he’s been able to drop a 1.89 ERA and 0.812 WHIP on the league. As of this writing, it seems that we will not see Misiorowski pitch in this series, though the Brewers do have a TBD for Sunday and until that turns into someone else, I guess it might be him.
The bullpen is holding up its share of the weight as well. There are six relievers, including former Oriole DL Hall, who are sitting with a 3.50 ERA or better. Hall, in fact, has a 2.17 ERA through 43 games. Closer Trevor Megill has a 0.902 WHIP in his 57.1 innings. You are doing pretty well as a closer if you are allowing fewer than one baserunner per inning pitched. It is a very good way to seal wins.
The Brewers have also scored more runs than anybody else in baseball. They have been able to do this in part because there are six decent-to-great hitters in their regular lineup, plus two guys on the bench (including former Oriole Gary Sánchez) who are doing well in their reserve opportunities. They’re getting a breakout season from first baseman Jake Bauers at age 30, another “good hitting, great defense” season from Brice Turang, and even former Oriole Joey Ortiz, who was absolutely terrible at the plate a year ago, has bounced back to decent.
These guys are helping themselves out by cashing in the scoring opportunities that they do get. Their split with runners in scoring position is nearly 60 points higher than their regular batting. This is the #1 number among all MLB teams. (The Orioles, with a .759 OPS with RISP, are in 10th.)
This is a complete team that hasn’t had much postseason success despite fairly dominant regular seasons. They have won their division five times since the 2018 season, with two wild card bids, and have advanced past the first round in which they played just twice. That gives them the edge over the Mike Elias era Orioles in two ways: They’ve actually been consistently good, and they’ve actually won a few playoff games here and there.
The Orioles are inferior to this team in basically every way and they’ve got to manage to sweep this series or at the absolute worst win two out of three. Yeah, good luck with that.
As of this writing, the Orioles are listing TBD as their starting pitchers for every game of the series. Very helpful for bloggers who are trying to say something informative about the series. It appears likely that Cade Povich will be recalled from Norfolk to start one of the games.
Game 1: Friday, 7:05pm Eastern
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MIL starter: Dustin May – 4.49 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.287 WHIP in 28 games (Cardinals then Brewers)
May was a well-regarded pitching prospect so long ago that people were hoping that the Orioles would be able to pry him loose from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, and disappointed when they did not manage to do so. Due to a variety of injury challenges (and one global pandemic) he hasn’t pitched a full season worth of starts in his seven-year career until this season. Dean Kremer, the pitcher the Orioles actually got, has more than doubled May’s career bWAR to date.
The 29-year-old 6’6″ righty appeared to be a victim of bad luck with the Cardinals earlier this year, allowing a .322 BABIP that probably wasn’t all his fault. Since joining the Brewers, May’s BABIP luck has improved (.288) but he’s getting substantially worse results, probably because he’s now giving up home runs and other hard contact like it’s going out of style. There does exist the possibility that the Orioles will show up with a game plan that allows them to take advantage of this.
Game 2: Saturday, 7:05pm Eastern
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MIL starter: Robert Gasser – 4.30 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.266 WHIP in 19 games
Gasser is in his third season with the Brewers, though he had to get Tommy John surgery just five starts into his MLB career and as a result, he’d only pitched in seven major league games before this season. He started this season out with Milwaukee’s Triple-A team and eventually was added to the MLB club, since when he’s done… fine. He has the same ERA+ as Trevor Rogers this season. That feels less bad when you’ve got a guy doing what Misiorowski has done at the top of the rotation as compared to what has happened with Orioles starting pitching.
The Statcast peripherals for Gasser are not good. He has been particularly vulnerable to giving up hard contact. He does not get many ground balls, he does not throw the ball hard, he does not get a lot of swing-and-miss and he doesn’t get batters to chase very often outside of the strike zone. Absolutely none of which means that the Orioles offense will do well against him on Saturday. Gasser is left-handed.
Game 3: Sunday, 7:20pm Eastern
Note: This game airs on Peacock and only on Peacock.
Double TBD. Sheesh. Get it together, teams.
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