We’ve reached the inevitable almost-conclusion of the standoff between Jalen Duren and the Detroit Pistons as the young center looks to secure a lucrative long-term contract. The latest is a threat that has been levied before — Jalen Duren is seriously considering signing the $9.6 million qualifying offer so he can be an unrestricted free agent next season.
The threat might not be new, but it is being treated with more urgency because we truly are running out of time for a resolution to the JD situation. The deadline for him to take his qualifying offer is Oct. 1. That means one of the following is going to happen:
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Jalen Duren signs his qualifying offer, plays out the season in Detroit, and leaves in the offseason.
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Jalen Duren signs his qualifying offer, plays some of the season in Detroit, and is traded for a marginal return to a team that wants to re-sign Duren in the offseason using their cap space.
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The Pistons believe so deeply that Jalen Duren is going to sign his qualifying offer that they organize a sign-and-trade now to get a bit of a better return instead of losing him for nothing.
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The Pistons sign Jalen Duren to a new multi-year deal.
Which is the most likely? I have no reason to believe that it is still not No. 4, especially in light of the standoff being quantified with alleged contract numbers.
The Athletic reports that the Pistons’ offer to Duren stands at five years and $190 million for an average annual value of $38 million. Duren’s camp wants a contract at or beyond $200 million. That would be an AAV of $40 million. So we’re arguing over something that could be as little as $2 million per year.
However, the Athletic story goes a bit further in contextualizing what might make Duren’s willingness to sign the QO more realistic. The story notes that Duren opted out of a minicamp Cade Cunningham organized. On the one hand, you don’t want to run afoul of a franchise cornerstone. On the other hand, Cade knows Duren’s just trying to handle his business.
Perhaps more significantly, the Athletic reports that the Kings are interested in signing Duren to a max contract next offseason. The story also alleges two more unnamed suitors willing to go to the max. But a max from Detroit and a max from another team are entirely different animals. A max in Detroit might be $287 million, and it’s true the Pistons are offering way under that. But after he signs a qualifying offer, the max he can get from another team is $187 million over four years. Add the $9.6 million from Detroit to play out this season, and it would be $196 million over five years.
I’m sorry, I just can’t believe Duren is willing to risk the security of Detroit’s $190 million offer for an extra $6 million at the end of the deal. He’s not only risking the potential for an injury to blow up his ability to secure a future long-term deal, but he’s also banking on the dynamics of the NBA staying consistent to the point that the three alleged max offers on the table today will still be there a year from now. I don’t buy it.
This is what it always has been — a staring contest over $10-$15 million between a team and a player. There is zero downside for either side to take these negotiations down to the 11th hour. If you’re the one who blinks, you lose. There is nothing to gain by saying yes today as compared to saying yes on September 24th.
Duren is going to play the only card he has left to play — the threat of taking the qualifying offer. Is it legit? Anything is possible when pride is involved, I suppose. But I still think this ends with Duren and Detroit coming to terms on a new long-term deal for less than $200 million.
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