After Antonelli’s Italian GP win, is the F1 title fight over? Our writers have their say

Kimi Antonelli’s Italian Grand Prix win from 19th on the grid was a statement performance and extends his lead in the Formula 1 world championship to 66 points.

With a maximum of 10 rounds left – subject to the Qatar and Abu Dhabi GPs and the situation in the Middle East – the Italian driver is in a supremely strong position to seal the 2026 world title.

So, is the 2026 F1 world title fight over? Our writers have their say.

It’d need to be a generational choke for Antonelli to lose it from here

I don’t want to say it is done and dusted before the European stretch of the season is over but this felt monumental. To go from 19th on the grid to victory, against the likes of George Russell and Max Verstappen at the front of the pack, is going to go down in history as the first moment Antonelli demonstrated his F1 world champion credentials.

A gap of 66 points with 10-ish rounds to go isn’t impossible to overturn – just two DNFs and the pressure is right on top of the 20-year-old – but he just doesn’t seem phased by any of it and, if anything, is driving better now than at any point in his burgeoning career in F1.

Antonelli has shown already he can bank solid results when needed, and also charge for the win when it is there for the taking; he effectively did both one after the other at Monza this weekend.

Yes, finishing second to Russell in every race still isn’t enough to mathematically seal the title, but with his team-mate expected to serve a back of the grid penalty for an engine change in Azerbaijan, he has a great opportunity to make that scenario a reality.

– Haydn Cobb

It’s not over – but Russell will need luck

Antonelli definitely dealt a sizeable blow to Russell’s title hopes in Monza but, as of today, there are 10 rounds to go – 258 points to score.

Russell’s deficit is up to 66 points, and the dynamic isn’t favourable to him, as frustration will understandably be growing – though he was very gracious in defeat on Sunday.

In order to make up such a substantial gap, Russell will need the stars to align. Antonelli doesn’t have many off days; in 13 grands prix so far this season, he has finished on the podium 11 times to Russell’s seven.

That remarkable consistency typically leads to a world title, with few examples to the contrary. Coincidentally, it happened just last year. Oscar Piastri also had 11 podiums from the first 13 rounds, by which time he was 16 points ahead of team-mate Lando Norris and 81 points clear of Max Verstappen, but he ended up outscored by both.

Other than that, the most recent one was Nico Rosberg in 2014. The German had recorded 11 podiums in the first 13 races, but team-mate Lewis Hamilton had 10 podium finishes himself and was just 22 points down in the standings. Three times fewer than the current gap, in other words.

So, such a recovery wouldn’t be unprecedented, as shown by Verstappen – but it wasn’t comparable given Russell and Antonelli have the same car, unlike the Red Bull racer and the McLaren drivers last year. So, while there’s hope, the Briton really is a long shot by now.

– Ben Vinel

Antonelli’s rivals have too much to do

There’s really very little to suggest anything can still stop Antonelli from clinching the title this year after his Monza victory. If anyone had doubts before, this weekend probably removed the last arguments for predicting any other outcome – barring something going completely wrong for the Italian off track.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Simon Galloway / LAT Images via Getty Images

After all, Isack Hadjar didn’t exactly plan to miss a couple of races. So, as long as Antonelli stays away from boxing gloves for the next couple of months, he should be fine. If he shows up on the grid – regardless of where he starts, apparently – he looks set to become world champion at the age of 20.

It’s not only about Antonelli, either. Russell, still his closest rival, doesn’t just need to close a massive points gap – he has to do something even more difficult: maintain the belief that he can still beat Antonelli on any given weekend.

Given how this season has unfolded, and the speed of the Italian’s progress, it must be daunting for the Briton to see just how brilliant his young team-mate has become.

Monza also confirmed Ferrari is probably out of the picture. Charles Leclerc never really was in it, and now he’s simply too far behind to seriously think about the title. And Hamilton doesn’t appear to have a car capable of challenging the Mercedes drivers consistently. The same applies to Norris and McLaren, whose weaknesses were exposed again this weekend.

– Oleg Karpov

I am going to call it here 

I just don’t see a way back for Russell. I really don’t. Yes, there are a lot of points on the table, stranger things have happened in F1, and those formidable Mercedes power units have been glass cannons. I get all that.

But the manner in which Antonelli has been amassing race wins, and collecting whichever result is available when Mercedes doesn’t enjoy its usual supremacy, is a quite a marvel for a 20-year-old.

Russell is turning things around, but even that doesn’t appear to be enough to be beating Antonelli on a regular basis and that’s exactly what he would have to do. Not keeping pace, as he is roughly doing now, but battering Antonelli.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Clive Rose / Formula 1 via Getty Images

I just don’t see it happening, because I’m afraid Russell has met his match in the young Italian.

What’s more, the Italian Grand Prix was supposed to be Antonelli’s mulligan, his joker race where taking his fifth power unit meant an exercise in damage limitation. Instead of sustaining damage, he has dealt Russell a mental hammer blow. Meanwhile, Russell still has to take his engine penalty later on, and there isn’t a circuit left where overtaking will be this easy.

The conclusion to last year’s title race has shown that 10 races is an eternity, but that was when the best driver of his generation was doing the chasing. Now, the best driver of the next generation is out in front, and he looks bulletproof. I am going to call it here.

– Filip Cleeren

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