What’s left of the Clippers?

Nearly a year ago, Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank sat before a host of reporters in Inglewood, California, attempting to get ahead of incoming questions about Kawhi Leonard. The team’s offseason had seen several names come through the door — Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez and John Collins — but the inescapable elephant in the room hung over like a dark cloud. 

“I’m not naive,” Frank said, repeatedly adjusting and removing his glasses. “I know there are a lot of questions about our organization. I wish I could answer them all, but out of respect to the NBA’s investigation, I can’t. What I can do is answer what I’m able to share. We’re glad there’s an investigation and we welcome it. The assumptions that have been made are disappointing. We’re eager for the truth to come out.”

Quite a bit has changed in the 11 months and change since Frank’s last public appearance. Gone is Paul, unceremoniously shoved out the front door by an organization with a checkered past. Collins is gone too, for basketball reasons, but reasons nonetheless. Leonard, who expects a pending trade to the Toronto Raptors to be completed, will soon follow suit. And Frank, now suspended by the NBA without pay for six months as part of the league’s historic punishment handed out to the Clippers for cap circumvention regarding Leonard, is barred from the building. 

What’s left is an awkward-fitting roster that technically should be operating in two timelines, now trapped in a vortex. A team slowly stripped of its talent, stripped of its identity and, now, its dignity, feebly held together by head coach Tyronn Lue and associate head coach Jeff Van Gundy. 

In just a few weeks, Lue will sit at that same podium he graced last year when the running themes were about growth, excitement and opportunity. Now the focus will be about survival and patience. He’ll be peppered with inquiries about the state of what’s left of a basketball team and how to properly chart a course of action. 

Right now, the actual basketball seems to be the only thing Lue and the organization can control. 

But what does that look like? 

The Clippers were fortunate to get 65 games out of Leonard last season, unquestionably the biggest reason why the team was able to eclipse 42 wins and somehow end the year with a positive net rating, even if barely. His expected departure from the starting lineup, replaced with the incoming Brandon Ingram — a below-average defender who seemed disinterested in that side of the ball as a Raptor — understandably shifts Los Angeles into a net negative, at least from a projection standpoint. 

(Consider me in the minority with this, but if you squint hard enough, you can see why the Clippers, who were a middle-of-the-pack rim protection group last season, wanted Rui Hachimura to skip across town. Hachimura’s strong postseason showing, finishing in the 71st percentile in rim contest rate and 82nd in rim points saved and with a shockingly low 9% foul rate on contests, potentially pairs well with an aging, slower Lopez. It also certainly helps that both frontcourt players remain strong floor spacers, offering value at both ends of the floor.)

Without Leonard as a safety net, the bulk of the half-court creation should fall on Darius Garland’s shoulders. He’s had somewhat of an early orientation after being traded to L.A. in February, but even in his limited minutes it was evident just how needed he was (and why things with Paul went south quickly). With Garland on the floor, the Clippers outscored opponents by a tidy 11-points-per-100 possessions, good for the 94th percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass. He simply seemed more at ease under Lue — perhaps because he was no longer under the shadow of Donovan Mitchell and his lion’s share of touches. Garland was allowed to actually orchestrate an offense. The team’s effective field goal percentage shot up over 5% in Garland’s minutes (99th percentile when he was on the floor, for what it’s worth), not to mention his own self-creation improved. 

Garland’s presence should juice the team’s sharpshooters, like Max Strus (who was part of the multi-team trade that sent Peyton Watson to Cleveland), and could even help a struggling spacer in Gradey Dick (who would be part of the Leonard deal) return to normalcy. The one-time All-Star loves spamming ball screens, scurrying around in the gaps and whipping out looks to the perimeter, a big reason why the Clippers’ half-court efficiency was nearly eight points better with Garland on the floor. Los Angeles finished 23rd in 3-point attempts last season — expect that to increase.

Most of the attention (at least from an outside standpoint) will fall on Ingram, the biggest non-Leonard name in the deal. While he’s nowhere near his predecessor’s level, there’s enough to work with offensively. We’re still talking about a jumbo wing with playmaking chops (96th percentile or better assist rate in six of his last seven seasons), 3-point shooting on good volume (38% on around five attempts per) and three-level scoring. His subpar postseason showing isn’t as egregious now on a team with no expectations for the time being. 

At some point, the Clippers’ flexibility restraints will come into play. Being stripped of five first-round picks between 2029 and 2033 hampers their ability to rebuild or even retool, and there’s a very slim window of growth. I’d temper expectations for rookie guard Keaton Wagler, as well, even as a top-10 pick who showed flashes during summer league. 

This is basketball purgatory for the foreseeable future — especially in a vicious Western Conference — which leaves the Clippers projected to win anywhere from 35 to 39 games. That’s unfortunate if you’re a diehard fan, but considering the severity of the sanctions placed against the franchise this week, things could be much, much worse.