Quietly, Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić can become a free agent next summer.
We say, “Quietly,” because in early July, when the three-time NBA MVP had also yet put pen to paper on a $278 million contract extension over four seasons, Jokić told reporters following his native Serbia’s FIBA World Cup qualifying match, “My idea and desire is to stay in Denver. I’ll probably sign next year. My desire is to play the rest of my life in Denver.”
And it makes sense. By waiting until next offseason, the 31-year-old can sign a record five-year, $360 million extension, which would keep him under the Nuggets’ control until 2032.
In the meantime, the Nuggets have done little to satiate Jokić’s desires. For fear of the second apron (and there is real fear; New York Knicks owner James Dolan said earlier this summer that a team would have to be “suicidal” to spend into the second apron), Denver did not re-sign restricted free agent Peyton Watson, instead trading him to the Cleveland Cavaliers for little but draft capital in a four-year, $88 million sign-and-trade transaction.
The draft capital is nothing to dismiss. In exchange for Watson, the Nuggets received a first-round draft pick and a second-round selection, either of which could be flipped to acquire another piece to a puzzle that produced 54 wins last season and lost in the first round of the playoffs (without Watson, who missed the series because of a right hamstring injury).
But do we really expect the Nuggets to spend further into the luxury tax for the necessary help to continue contending for championships? They won the title in 2023 and ever since have been dismantling the roster around Jokić, for fear of spending.
They had no choice but to let Bruce Brown walk for a balloon payment in 2023 free agency, but in 2024 they lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for nothing in a situation similar to the current one involving Watson. They could have retained Caldwell-Pope on the three-year, $66 million contract he received from the Orlando Magic, but it was too rich for their blood.
That is rich in itself, since the Kroenke family, who owns the Nuggets, Los Angeles Rams and Colorado Avalanche, among other professional sports teams, is reportedly worth in excess of $30 billion. That speaks to the power of the second apron and an unwillingness to pay an exponential luxury tax that comes with spending around an all-time great player.
Regardless, the foundation of an NBA champion is beginning to crack. Or has cracked. Really, only Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun remain. That is a nice foursome to have — one that outscored opponents by 14.6 points per 100 non-garbage possessions last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. But, in retrospect, if they had to choose between Braun and Watson, they would not have granted Braun $125 million.
But why choose between Braun and Watson when they could have had both, when they could have run back a 54-win team (albeit one also without Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas), hoping this time a healthy Gordon and Watson could push them over the top of foes like the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves?
Why? The second apron, that’s why. Blame that if you must.
They will still have to shed salary, especially, if, as reported by Chris Haynes, they are interested in the services of DeMar DeRozan, who was waived by the Sacramento Kings.
Yet, the 37-year-old DeRozan would represent a downgrade from the 23-year-old Watson, a rising star who averaged a 17-5-2 on 50/43/73 shooting splits in 40 games as a starting forward last season. He may have represented Denver’s last great hope of developing a star around Jokić and Murray, whose pick-and-roll partnership still bears incredible fruit.
Losing Caldwell-Pope was a downgrade as well. So, too, was flipping Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson, a move most everyone believed in at the time of the 2025 trade — but another cost-cutting measure that, at least last season, figured for a step backward.
Isn’t Jokić worth spending into the second apron? If a perennial MVP candidate — arguably the greatest offensive weapon of his era — isn’t worth it, who is? Nobody? Cool.
If the Kroenkes, one of the richest families in the world, will not spend into it to build around Jokić, one of the greatest players in the world, then what the NBA effectively has is a salary cap, and the National Basketball Players Association is not happy about it.
Whether or not the Kroenkes should have spent into the second apron, they chipped away at the foundation of a championship team enough that it lost in the first round of last season’s playoffs. There is little reason to believe this edition will be much better.
And maybe Jokić is fine with that.
Maybe he is OK with calling Denver home until the foundation cracks, if it hasn’t already. Maybe that “probably” in “I’ll sign next year” is doing a lot of work for him at the moment.
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