“Canelo is going to look better vs Mbilli than he has in other recent fights because Mbilli’s style is his most comfortable to go against. Don’t be surprised if this fight looks like Toney vs Jirov. I know Canelo has slipped, but he has a chance to win this fight. A real chance,” Edwards said on X.
Canelo should find openings when Mbilli attacks, but the Toney vs. Jirov comparison asks him to become a fighter he has never been. Toney did not spend that cruiserweight title fight waiting for isolated counterpunches. He met Jirov’s early assault, absorbed heavy blows, and answered with hard combinations during sustained exchanges.
Jirov threw 1,032 punches, while Toney produced 811 and landed 380. Canelo has never reached 800 attempts in a recorded CompuBox fight. His reported career high was 622 against Gennadiy Golovkin in their 2018 rematch, when Canelo was 28 and near his physical peak.
The difference has become far greater with age. Canelo threw only 338 punches against Terence Crawford last September. Toney produced nearly two and a half times that number against Jirov while dealing with much heavier pressure.
Mbilli is the fighter equipped to reproduce the physical intensity of Toney–Jirov. He attacks the body continuously and throws punches in bunches. Canelo has always been a selective power puncher who operates in shorter spurts.
His declining stamina creates an even larger obstacle. Crawford did not apply nonstop pressure last September, yet Canelo (63-3-2, 39 KOs) looked completely drained after six rounds. The same second-half drop developed against Edgar Berlanga and Jaime Munguia. Neither man forced him into sustained exchanges at the volume Mbilli brings.
Canelo may look sharp during the early rounds because Mbilli (29-0-1, 24 KOs) will walk directly into his countering range. The trouble begins if those punches fail to hurt Mbilli or reduce his activity. Canelo must then withstand constant body attacks while finding enough energy to produce offense of his own.
Edwards has identified one stylistic benefit for Canelo, but his historical comparison overlooks the work required to duplicate Toney’s performance. Toney matched Jirov’s intensity and remained dangerous through the final bell. Canelo has never possessed that type of output, and his recent stamina trouble makes Mbilli’s pressure more threatening than comfortable.
Read the full article here