What happens if the Seattle Mariners miss the playoffs? A LL site discussion

In spite of a quietly efficient series win over Houston, the realistic hopes of a back-to-back playoff appearance for the Seattle Mariners are continuing to dwindle. We had a robust discussion on the topic last week in the staff Slack channel and it seems like something worth sharing with the LL community. Please weigh in with your takes in the comments! Editorial commentary in italics by me, Eric Sanford.

Grant Bronsdon got things going on August 10 by referencing an informal poll from a few days earlier asking “Do you think the Mariners are going to playoffs, yes or no?” John Trupin and I were the only two folks to answer “yes” at the time, so Grant chose violence and followed up after the Mariners had been swept by the Rays on the Mariners 50th anniversary Golden Poop Jubilee weekend.

Grant Bronsdon: Vibe check, does John still think we’re making the playoffs?

John Trupin: I think no, and I’m quite sad about it. The inability to make adjustments or seemingly be prepared for opposing pitchers has really been remarkable, and I didn’t think it’d linger so long. This week was the last chance they had to make it anything approaching ‘easy’ on themselves and they looked awful. This is essentially where they were at the start of September last year in terms of the division, the problem is they’re not in as good of Wild Card position so their window is narrower and relies heavily on essentially a sweep of Houston this week.(hey, almost a sweep!) There are little things still in their favor – getting the Yankees still down Judge and Bellinger, facing post-deadline Toronto, and their absolute cakewalk September schedule against the emptied out Angels plus A’s plus Rockies and the two teams they need to catch up with.

Connor Donovoan: They also are dodging Schlittler. (Connor, ever the pragmatist!)

Evan James: Don’t even really think the feasible playoffs scenarios are what’s best anymore. The trend line on essentially all of our young talent besides Cole Young is down. I have a ton of questions about running it back next year, even with new coaches on the offensive side at the major league level.

John: The only way they’ll make the playoffs at this point is if they play in such a way that that changes.

Evan: I hope so.

Nick Vitalis: If we miss the playoffs, are Dan and Edgar both out?

John: I think so.

Nick: I would have to think yes even though it’ll be brutal.

Connor: I think it will be framed as a mutual parting of the ways.

Nick: It’ll have to be. Firing two of your franchise icons three months after the fiftieth is tough. I do think the lack of adjustments makes me think that it’s an approach flaw and maybe these guys just aren’t up enough on scouting and league trends. I don’t know, hard to say from afar.

Jake Mailhot: I mean, the two hitting coaches that have been fired over the last few seasons were the more analytically inclined coaches on the hitting side of the staff. Firing Jarret DeHart and Bobby Magallanes is as full throated endorsement of a “see ball, hit ball” philosophy from the team as we’re going to get. Also, I’m calling it, if the team doesn’t make the playoffs, Dipoto is out.

(the slack makes various gasping noises and shocked face emojis as everyone reels from Jake’s nuclear take he just casually tossed onto the fire)

Evan: Where we’re at, this is the much more interesting take. Everyone else’s cake is close to baked, but Justin and Jerry have a few prospect cards yet to play.

Connor: I lean towards keeping Jerstin, but the allure of something different to complain about is tough to pass up.

Jake: Maybe this is too far removed from however John Stanton views things, but what’s the point of firing Dan if you’re not firing Jerry too. Jerry had his pick of managers in Servais, then Stanton picked Dan. Neither worked out. It’s not a problem of a manager who can’t get enough out of the roster. It’s the roster.

Eric: It is the roster, agreed, but this roster has severely underperformed. They should have been better than this, right? All projections and career norms considered, they should have the AL West all but won at this point. I’m inclined to agree with Jake that if you start firing coaches, you either have to fire Dipoto and Hollander or insist they basically do a full tear down and start over again. Which…is a very scary and difficult decision when, again, this roster SHOULD be good but they simply are not. Realistically, if they miss the playoffs I could see firing Dan and Edgar and then ownership gives Dipoto and Hollander until about mid season 2027 to fix things and field a winning team/be in playoff position, and if not, then it’s a fire sale. I don’t like or want any of this, to be clear.

Evan: Do we know that Stanton picked Dan? Anders said this on the podcast too, I just have no memory of this being indicated in any way.

Jake: I guess it’s an assumption that Stanton picked Dan because of his history with the team. It didn’t seem like a pick Dipoto would have made. But I don’t think there’s any hints out there one way or the other.

Evan: They fired Scott on August 22nd, which even in hindsight is insanely late in the season. I think it was a function of familiarity, proximity and availability as much as anything, at least in the interim. The weird thing was immediately announcing his permanence going forward, even if it wound up being warranted because the team played substantially better.

Anders Jorstad: Right, hiring him on a permanent basis is not something a GM would do. Any GM would slap the interim tag and do a proper process in the offseason. The fact that he was immediately “the guy” says that it came down as an edict from ownership because they are taking the wheel and telling Jerry they don’t trust him to make the right choice through a prolonged process. If you’re Jerry and you had to fire your manager and you know your ass is on the line, why would you make such a rash decision to permanently hire a guy with zero experience without doing your due diligence to see what other options are out there? Honestly, I really don’t think they should fire Dipoto, but I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if they did.

Evan: I know the road trip and the fall from the AL west 10 game lead is what sealed it, but man…64-64 sounds pretty good right now.

Eric: Ah, lusting to be a .500 baseball team, just like the good ol’ bad days. Time is a flat circle.

And that’s about where the discussion wrapped up. Let’s hear your thoughts on what will happen to the coaching staff and/or front office if the Mariners end up missing the playoffs this season.