Last night was a gut punch with the Sox up 4-1 heading into the eighth, then the bullpen did its best impression of a sieve, and the Reds walked off with a 5-4 win in 10. Sean Burke deserved better — seven innings, three hits, eight punchouts, just one run — but the bats went virtually silent after the fourth and the pen coughed it up.
Tonight, the South Siders try to even the series, and we get our first look at Luis Castillo in a White Sox uni at home. He came over from Seattle at the deadline, and his Sox debut in Boston on August 6 was a mess. He surrendered five runs on six hits and a walk, was yanked after four innings, and the Sox lost a 13-inning circus, 12-11.
There will be a little extra spice tonight as Castillo gets to face his old club. He broke in with the Reds back in 2017, stuck around for five-plus years, then got shipped to Seattle in 2022. Now, at 33, he’s got a shot to stick it to his old mates and maybe, just maybe, give Chicago a start they can actually use.
Statcast shows us that Castillo’s stuff isn’t fooling many this year. He’s in the 30th percentile in strikeout rate and 40th in whiff rate, but at least he’s getting guys to chase (69th percentile). Translation: he better hit his spots, because when he misses, hitters are teeing off — exit velo, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, all ugly and south of the 30th percentile. He can’t just try to blow the Reds away. The righthander needs to get ahead, make them chase, or else.
The pitch mix? Same story. Sinker and cutter are working, but the slider and changeup are disasters sitting in the fifth and ninth percentiles in run value. Hang one of those to this Reds lineup, and it’s fireworks. Castillo needs to pound the fastball early — which still has above-average life — live on the edges, and let the Reds’ jumpiness work against them if he gets ahead.
The Reds counter with Rhett Lowder, rocking a 4-7 record, 5.26 ERA, and a 1.48 WHIP in 89 innings. He’s punched out 73, walked 39, and even if he’s been less terrible lately, his Statcast page shouldn’t exactly scare anyone in the Sox dugout.
Lowder’s whiff, chase and strikeout rates are all bottom-of-the-barrel — 15th, 17th and 20th percentile. Sox hitters should sit tight and make him throw strikes. His slider has been especially vulnerable, sitting in just the third percentile in run value, while his four-seamer and sinker have been much more effective at the 70th and 74th percentile.
The bottom line is for the Good Guys to lay off the slider. Make Lowder come into the zone, work the count and force him to throw the fastball. He gets grounders, so the Sox need to look for something they can lift instead of beating balls into the turf. He’s not a strikeout guy, so don’t bail him out by chasing.
Here’s how Will Venable will send them out against Lowder:
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Chase Meidroth is back in the lineup tonight after dealing with a sore left wrist. He’s one of the team’s hottest hitters over the last seven days, slashing .357/.438/.857 with a 1.295 OPS. The infielder will be slotting in at short, and Colson Montgomery at third, with Miguel Vargas getting the day off.
This is how the Reds will line up versus Castillo:
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After letting one get away yesterday, the assignment tonight is fairly straightforward. For Castillo, he needs to keep the ball out of the heart of the plate, and Chicago’s offense needs to make Lowder come into it. Let’s see if the South Siders can even this thing up.
First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. CDT. The game will be televised on CHSN and can be heard on ESPN Chicago 1000.
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