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Could Tarik Skubal go home to Tigers? What history says about MLB rental stars

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Could Tarik Skubal go home to Tigers? What history says about MLB rental stars

There’s a version of this story that ends with Tarik Skubal back in Detroit, embraced by Tigers fans. It’s just not the one that anybody in the Motor City is hoping for.

Skubal has been a Los Angles Dodger for a little over a week and he hasn’t stopped talking about the team that traded him. “I would love to play my whole career in Detroit,” he said on Pardon My Take, adding that he hopes talks pick back up in November once the playoff are over.

Tigers fans heard hope in that sentence. The rest of the league heard a well-prepared, soon-to-be free agent represented by Scott Boras looking to keep his market open as wide as possible. All bidders are welcome.

So there is hope that Skubal could returned to Detroit, it’s just a lot narrower and different than that fan base hoped.

Detroit shipped him to Los Angeles on Aug. 2, for three prospects. He’s 29 and finishing out a $32 million contract – that he won through arbitration after the Tigers offered him a mere $19 million. In about three months he’ll be the most wanted free agent in baseball and the only extension offer either side has talked about publicly was four years and $75 million after the 2024 season.

He is going to get multiples of that. Nice words don’t change that.

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Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young career moments with Tigers

Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 30, 2026 in New York City. The crown jewel of the 2026 MLB trade deadline is undoubtedly two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. The Tigers’ lefty has missed some time due to injury this season, but still boasts a remarkable 2.70 ERA on the season while striking out 11 batters per nine innings pitched.

In a sense, this has been Skubal’s best season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is the highest it’s ever been at 8.46. His FIP (2.68) is still elite and below where his ERA currently stands. All that to say that every team in position to contend for a World Series this year should be dialing the Tigers’ number and trying to get their paws on Skubal.

(Jim McIsaac, Getty Images)

Two versions of the same conversation

“We explored an extension once,” Scott Harris said. Skubal’s side made clear he was going to free agency and the Tigers president of baseball operations didn’t blame him for it. “Which is totally his right,” Harris said. But that also made the trade inevitable.

Skubal’s agent refuted that. Scott Boras told The Athletic the offer was four years, $75 million, after the 2024 season. He wanted eight and Detroit would not go there.

Both sides agree on one thing though: it died over the money.

And that’s not new with Skubal and the Tigers. He beat them in arbitration last winter, $32 million for the reigning Cy Young Award winner to their $19 million offer.

Still, he was sincerely emotional when he left. He cried, he hugged and promised to keep in touch with teammates.

He can love the place and still go after the money. Most players do.

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Players enter the Field of Dreams before a game between the Chicago White Sox and the New York Yankees on Aug. 12, 2021.

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The big ones don’t stay

That’s not a knock on Skubal. It is just what happens to every star who gets moved in July.

CC Sabathia went from Cleveland to Milwaukee in 2008, carried the Brewers into October on short rest, then took seven years and $161 million from the Yankees. Mark Teixeira, rented by the Angels that same summer, took eight years and $180 million to head to the Bronx as well. David Price left Detroit for Toronto in 2015 and signed with Boston for seven years and $217 million.

Javier Baez went from the Cubs to the Mets in 2021, wound up with the Tigers for six years and #140 million. Cubs icon Kris Bryant got moved to San Francisco that same week and signed with Colorado for seven years and $182 million. Max Scherzer went 7-0 for the Dodgers down the stretch in 2021 after being traded by the Nationals and then signed with the Mets. Manny Machado was rented by the Dodgers in 2018 from Baltimore, then he took 10 years and $300 million from the Padres.

Randy Johnson went from Seattle to Houston in 1998, went 10-1 with a 1.28 ERA for the Astros, then signed with Arizona. Cliff Lee, dealt from Seattle, dragged Texas to its first pennant in 2010 and left for the Phillies. Johnny Cueto left Cincinnati for Kansas City in 2015, won a World Series, then signed with San Francisco. Jon Lester spent two months in Oakland after nearly a decade in Boston and signed with the Cubs.

There are some exceptions

Some guys do go home.

Aroldis Chapman was dealt from the Bronx to the Cubs in 2016 to close out a World Series. He got his ring and than went back to the Bronx.

Jack Flaherty was dealt by the Tigers to the Dodgers at the 2024 deadline, won a ring out there, and then signed right back with Detroit that winter. Merrill Kelly, rented by the Rangers last summer, went back to the Diamondbacks this year. In 1993, Rickey Henderson went to Toronto, won a World Series, and was back in Oakland by December on a two-year, $8.6 million deal.

The only mega-deal in that lot though was Chapman signing for five years, $86 million in December 2016. It was a record for a reliever at the time. The rest were short-term deals for useful players, not Skubal-like impact players.

Then, there is Mark McGwire. He never even got to the market after Oakland traded him to the Cardinals in 1997. He signed a three-year extension with St. Louis and hit 70 homers the next year.

When the Dodgers traded for Skubal, they not only got him for the playoff run, but they get an exclusive negotiating window with him.

Will Skubal remain in Dodger Blue?

Fair question, and the honest answer is who knows.

The Dodgers are already carrying Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in that rotation. Boras will run this like an auction looking for the biggest contract. The Dodgers get to bid and they have the financial power behind them to make a top bid. They do not, however, get a discount for two months.

Skubal, for his part, didn’t sound like a man planning a short stay when he defended the Dodgers for going out and trading for him.

“I don’t sympathize with people that blame the Dodgers for anything they’ve done,” he said of fans upset that the Dodgers are ruining baseball. “It’s a winning organization.”

Don’t hold your breath Detroit

There is one path that gets Skubal back this November. Something goes wrong in October, the market tightens with a lockout looming and he for some reason takes a short deal at a big annual number.

That’s unlikely.

The most likely version is the one the Tigers fans are seeing now. Justin Verlander came home eventually at 43, signing a one-year, $13 million deal to end his career.

Skubal is just 29, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who is chasing records numbers in free agency. He may be sentimental about the Tigers, but the team had years to capitalize on that emotion and could not close the deal.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Could Tarik Skubal go home to Tigers? What history says about MLB rental stars

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