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Home»Baseball»The Yankees Reliever Confidence Index: August Edition
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The Yankees Reliever Confidence Index: August Edition

News RoomBy News RoomAugust 8, 2026No Comments6 Mins Read
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The Yankees Reliever Confidence Index: August Edition

At last Monday’s Trade Deadline, the Yankees had an opportunity to augment a bullpen that, despite ranking second in MLB in both ERA and xERA, seemingly had room for another high-end arm. Instead, GM Brian Cashman traded away Camilo Doval, Jake Bird, and Yovanny Cruz. The most charitable interpretation here is addition by subtraction. Doval and Bird — two of three relievers Cashman acquired at the 2025 deadline — had been major disappointments (while Cruz had made just four appearances this year and was more of a depth piece). Their ouster creates opportunities for others to take a step forward in the pecking order.

As I do each month in a given season, I’m going to take a look at the Yankees’ relievers to identify how manager Aaron Boone is deploying each and offer a verdict as to how much trust we can place in them moving forward using the following ranking system:

  • 5: As confident as one can be in a reliever, the most fickle position in baseball

  • 4: High degree of confidence, but some trepidation remains

  • 3: Glass half full or glass half empty? The choice is yours

  • 2: Major concerns here, though perhaps a glimmer of hope

  • 1: Absolute zero — usually reserved for those with a minimal track record

Statistics below are from July 1-August 6.

The Closer

David Bednar

Recent stats: 14.2 IP, 1.23 ERA, 17 SO, 2.69 FIP, 9 Saves (in 9 opportunities)

Regardless of what happened at the deadline, with the possible exception of a Mason Miller acquisition, Bednar was going to remain the team’s closer, and for good reason. After an uneven start to the season, he’s allowed runs to score in just one of 25 outings since May 18th, a remarkable run of excellence that’s largely flown under the radar. In a bullpen that’s experienced some flux, he’s been low drama, exactly what you want out of your closer.

Confidence level: 5

Bednar is seventh among active players in saves, with everyone ahead of him older and longer tenured. The combination of his excellence this year and track record over his career makes him one of the most reliable closers in baseball.

The Set-Up Men

Brent Headrick

Recent stats: 18 IP, 1.00 ERA, 27 SO, 0.60 FIP

Over his first three seasons, Headrick pitched more at Triple-A than in the big leagues, appearing to be no more than a depth piece. This year? As Michael Baumann over at FanGraphs eloquently outlined on Thursday, he’s putting up one of the best reliever seasons in Yankees history. Among primary relievers, only Miller and Louis Varland have lower ERAs.

Confidence level: 5

I was skeptical of Headrick’s success early in the season, but he’s sustained this level of performance for long enough that it cannot be ignored. And his peripherals, including elite whiff and barrel rates, support that this is no fluke. He’s firmly entrenched in the late-inning mix, and rightfully so.

Paul Blackburn

Recent stats: 22.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 23 SO, 4.24 FIP

Say what you will about the Yankees’ organization — they can take a washed up journeyman and turn him into a star reliever like no other team in baseball. Blackburn is the latest beneficiary of the Luke Weaver effect, transforming from a struggling swingman into a back-end option. After using him in long relief for most of the season, Boone has begun inserting him in the eighth, with strong early results.

Confidence level: 3.5

Blackburn deserves credit for his turnaround, but the jury’s still out on how sustainable it will be. While he’s not missing many bats, his 56.5 ground-ball rate suggests he may have a legitimate new formula. If he performs well in another month of high-leverage usage, I’ll feel much more confident he can be part of the path to Bednar moving forward.

The Middle Relievers

Fernando Cruz

Recent stats: 14 IP, 3.21 ERA, 14 SO, 5.10 FIP

After working as a set-up man, Cruz has been deployed recently as the first man out of the bullpen to bail out a fading starter to get to the late innings. Wherever Boone uses him, he knows what he’s getting: a pitcher with a one-of-a-kind splitter who both misses bats and issues walks as much as anyone in baseball.

Confidence level: 4

Cruz is a known quantity at this point. His energy on the mound and ability to dominate on his best day more than make up for the days when he loses the strike zone and works himself into trouble. He remains very much in the high-leverage picture.

Tim Hill

Recent stats: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 5 SO, 9.10 FIP

After a remarkably consistent run through nearly two years in New York, Hill’s bag of tricks has begun to wear out its welcome. Since May 12th, his ERA has ballooned from 1.00 to 4.40 as he’s allowed 21 runs (19 earned) in 25 innings. Unsurprisingly, he’s slipped out of the inner ring of Boone’s circle of trust.

Confidence level: 2.5

Hill’s numbers remain strong against lefties, maintaining his value as a lefty specialist. Otherwise, though, his stock has taken a major hit.

The Long Reliever

Ryan Yarbrough

Recent stats: 10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 5 SO, 4.89 FIP

It’s been an odd season for Yarbrough, who has performed well despite intermittent usage. His hard-hit rate of 22.5 percent tops MLB (Cruz is second) despite — or, perhaps, because of — throwing one of the slowest fastballs in the game. Of note for his recent stats: Yarbrough has allowed six unearned runs this month.

Confidence index: 2.5

Yarbrough is perfectly suited for his long relief role, giving a different look than any other Yankees pitcher while eating some lower-leverage innings.

The Mop-Up Men

Yerry De los Santos

Recent stats: 9.1 IP, 5.79 ERA, 7 SO, 3.38 FIP (at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)

This is where the Yankees’ bullpen starts to get scary. After moving Doval and Bird (and sending Angel Chivilli down to Triple-A), the Yankees promoted De los Santos, who had been getting absolutely torched at Triple-A. He does have a strong 2.84 ERA in 30 appearances with the Yankees over the past two seasons, but if the team had confidence that was indicative of his potential they’d have called him up earlier in the season.

Confidence level: 1

De los Santos has been useful as a Quadruple-A player, but the prospect of him becoming a mainstay in the bullpen is alarming. We’re one injury away from the 28-year-old starting to see action late in close games.

Kervin Castro

Recent stats: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 SO, 1.90 FIP

Castro has earned his shot. After last pitching in the bigs for the Cubs in 2022, the Yankees took a flier on him last year and he excelled at Triple-A, a run of success he continued this year. Over both seasons, he posted a 1.63 ERA at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The early returns with the Yankees have been strong as well, with three scoreless outings since he was recalled in late July.

Confidence level: 1

I’d love to see Castro’s Cinderella story continue, but success at Triple-A does not always translate at the big-league level. He’ll need to show a lot more before he gains any trust in Boone’s bullpen pecking order.

Read the full article here

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