The Hawks could have gone ‘big whale fishing’ for a bona fide star over the past 12 months — but every step of the way, they’ve indicated they prefer their youth and continuity.
They were heavily rumored to be a suitor for the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, and surely they could have gotten in the mix for the Jaylen Brown sweepstakes (although it would have been difficult without a Paul George-sized salary in return).
In the end, Atlanta never seemed particularly interested in luring in a big-salaried fish.
So with the Hawks instead making moves around the edges for Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and drafting Kingston Flemings while retaining a lot of their spring rotation, they’ve indicated that they believe in the current makeup of the team.
With the Eastern Conference now extremely deep, the likelihood of the Hawks making the Finals in 2027 are rather small. But the clear focus is on maintaining flexibility for the long haul.
But what if the ‘big whale’ superstar already exists on the roster?
Jalen Johnson finally put together a healthy season in his fifth year in the NBA at the age of just 24. Johnson was thrust into being the central focus of the offense in the wake of Trae Young sustaining an injury then summarily being traded to the nation’s capital.
He was rewarded by averaging an astounding 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game in 72 contests in 2025-26 and being named both an All-Star and an All-NBA player. Only five players have ever averaged at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists per game in a season in NBA history: Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook, and Nikola Jokic.
Any time you’re on an exclusive list with only former MVPs, you’re doing something right.
Still, individual counting stats don’t equal impact on team success. This much we should know by now in NBA discourse.
But why is it that Johnson is seen as more of a top 20 player but not an MVP candidate? Well, for a lot of reasons that also plagued the reputation of Jaylen Brown, for example — a player who, despite finishing sixth in MVP voting, was shipped off for two first-round picks and a well past his prime Paul George. Of course, Brown makes roughly twice the salary as Johnson, so it’s not quite an apples-to-apples comparison, but I digress.
Has scaling Johnson’s offensive usage up over the past few seasons really improved his impact on winning? He’s obviously an elite transition player, but how effective is he really in the halfcourt? How big a negative is his defense?
Well, for starters, Johnson showed some struggles in the postseason. His true shooting percentage dipped a bit from 58% in the regular season to 55% in the six-game series against the Knicks. Even more alarming was his passivity, going from 17.5 field goal attempts per 36 minutes to 15.5 from the regular season to the postseason.
Team pace does also dip between the two, of course, but it was evident the player the Knicks feared the most down the stretches of games was 34-year-old CJ McCollum and not Johnson.
He shot 39% on pull up shots during the regular season, just a smidge below McCollum. But that mark capsized in the postseason to just 25%. For Johnson to be an elite player in this league, he has to find ways to get his shot off against halfcourt ball pressure.
He also dished out 10.6 assists against 4.6 turnovers per 100 possessions in the regular season, but against the Knicks in the first round those two figures were 7.2 and 3.3 respectively.
Defensively, Johnson’s tape from last season is a mess. Steals and blocks aren’t everything, but his steal percentage slipped a tad (2.0% in 2024-25 to 1.7% in 2025-26) and his block percentage careened off a cliff (2.6% in 2024-25 to 1.1% in 2025-26).
DunksAndThrees estimated his defense to be worth +0.1 points per 100 possessions against the average NBA player last season — good for the 64th percentile. But there’s clearly still some fat left on the bone there.
But for all his exploits, his offense only came in at +1.4 points per 100 possessions, in the vicinity of Devin Vassell and Jrue Holiday — outside of the top 10 percent (or roughly 50 players) of the NBA.
What gives?
Jalen Johnson’s simply isn’t a game-breaking offensive player in the halfcourt. His handle — while quite good for his size — doesn’t create advantages like the elite ball-handling forwards in the league. His pull up shooting is still not that much of a threat despite his 35% shooting mark from deep.
I’ve long maintained that his malleability and versatility is truly his best asset — the ability to do everything well to shift in an out of offensive roles. And that quality makes him a great 1B to a 1A in the mold of Jalen Williams of the Thunder or Scottie Barnes of the Raptors.
But, man, I sure hope I’m wrong here. Because that could change everything.
The Hawks are at risk of backsliding after a 46-36 season where they secured a top 6 seed in the East for the first time since 2020-21. Many in the media have remarked that this is a great roster of roles players just waiting for the next superstar to become available, especially after the moves for Dort and others.
But there’s no guarantee that an attainable superstar matches the timeline. And the Hawks aren’t likely to get a top 4 pick — a possible ticket to a homegrown star — soon given the changing lottery odds and the franchise’s desire to stay relatively competitive (unless the Pelicans want to gift them another superpick).
If Johnson can hit another gear with one more developmental leap as he enters his age 25 season, maybe that star already calls Atlanta home. He has improved at every step of his basketball journey to this point, so it’s much too early to say that the incredible season we saw from him last season is his true peak.
Even in a stacked Eastern Conference, the Hawks just may be able to make some noise if Jalen Johnson can ascent from All-NBA caliber player to MVP caliber player.
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