CHICAGO — All-Star pitcher Joe Ryan, sitting in front of his locker in the visiting clubhouse at Wrigley Field, figured he’d be gone with everyone else in the infamous Minnesota Twins fire sale a year ago.
He heard the rumors all winter that he’d be traded, again in spring training, yet now that the MLB trade deadline is here, the Ryan trade talks have suddenly stopped.
Funny how a team’s outlook changes when the American League stinks.
The Twins, despite a 49-52 record, are only three games out in the wild-card race and four games back in the AL Central.
And Ryan, who could be the most sought-after starter on the trade market, now believes he’ll be actually staying put.
The Twins, after tearing the hearts out of their fanbase a year ago, certainly don’t have the audacity to do it again.
Entering Monday with a 2.88 ERA, striking out 128 batters in 110 ⅓ innings, Ryan also is under team control for one more year before he can hit free agency after the 2027 season.
“Last year there’s just kind of this unknown and we didn’t know that it was going to go down the way it did,” Ryan said. “I don’t even know if the organization knew it was going to go down the same way it did. But at the same time, I think it was probably inflamed publicly with the ‘fire sale’ because we had a lot of guys on expiring contracts that you’re going to move, regardless.
Jul 14, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Minnesota Twins pitcher Joe Ryan (41) pitches during the fourth inning for the All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
“Then, all offseason I was kind of like, ‘He’s going to get traded. He’s going to be traded.’ In spring training. And the beginning of the year. It was constant. But we’ve just played good baseball, and it’s allowed me to really just hone in on the team and keeps you present.
“It’s just given me peace.”
Ryan is one of the 12-most intriguing players on this year’s trade bubble, executives believe, with teams still trying to figure out whether they’ll be traded or kept.
Prediction: He’ll stay.
Here’s a look at other players on the bubble:
Skubal, the defending two-time AL Cy Young winner, realizes his fate depends on how the Tigers fare these next weeks. If they keep winning – and they’re 24-15 since June 1 – he’s staying.
If they have a relapse and start losing like they did when they went 6-22 in May, he’s gone. And if he’s gone, why hang onto Casey Mize, who’s also a free agent after the season?
“I mean it’s all out of my control,” Skubal said after his last start.
Certainly, he’s doing everything in his power to stay, pitching seven shutout innings Saturday with nine strikeouts against the Angels. It was the first time he went seven innings since April 29, his last start before undergoing elbow surgery, and everyone’s taking notice.
Prediction: STAYING
Holmes hasn’t pitched in a game since May 15 when he fractured his right fibula on a comebacker, but it hasn’t stopped scouts from monitoring his minor-league rehab stint, knowing he should return shortly after the Aug. 3 trade deadline. This is a guy who was dominant before the injury, yielding a 2.38 ERA in his first 52 ⅔ innings.
Holmes is in the second year of a three-year, $38 million contract, but he could opt out of the remaining $12 million in his deal and hit free agency after the season. He expressed interested in signing a long-term extension, but David Stearns, Mets president of baseball operations, has been reluctant to give out long-term deals to pitchers.
Prediction: GOING
Would the Pirates dare trade one of their potential young stars while fighting for their first playoff berth since 2015?
Likely not, but they desperately need bullpen help and could aways use depth in the starting rotation. They also have a powerful offense, depth in the outfield with Jake Mangum and Esmerlyn Valdez, and the desire to keep their payroll at its current level. If they choose, they can always move him in the winter, too.
Prediction: STAYING
The Blue Jays have been one of the game’s most underachieving teams, and nothing after the break has changed their plight, losing two of three games to the Chicago White Sox.
The Blue Jays hate to raise the white flag after being just two outs of winning the World Series last year, but they also have to be realistic about their most attractive trade chip.
Prediction: GOING – along with a few of his teammates
The Nationals dangled Abrams over the winter, but no one came close to stepping up and making a bid to pry him away. It may be no different this time around, but Abrams is having an All-Star season and has already set career highs with 21 home runs and 70 RBIs. And he still has two years of club control. They are still hanging around the wild card race, and could instead trade first baseman Luis Garcia Jr.
Prediction: STAYING
There are plenty other high-salaried players on long-term contract the Giants would love to trade, including Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers, but Lee is having the best season at the best price. He’s hitting .303 with a .787 OPS, with about $70 million remaining through 2029. He also has an opt out after the 2027 season. Still, with only five home runs this season, teams may instead covet power-hitters.
Prediction: STAYING
Detmers just may be the most valuable pitcher to hit the trade market.
Detmers, who is striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings, is coming off a dominant six-inning shutout performance against the Tigers, yielding just four hits with seven strikeouts. This not only is a breakout season for the 27-year-old lefty, but he’s also not earning much money ($2.625 million) and is even under team control through 2028.
If owner Arte Moreno gives his blessing, John Mozeliak, interim president of baseball operations, will trade him, and perhaps Jose Soriano too, knowing how it could instantly inject an abundance of talent into their farm system.
Prediction: Detmers goes, Soriano stays
This is the type of player the Orioles could get a handsome return for with the lack of power hitters on the market. Yet, after winning six games in a row to be in the middle of the wild-card race, can they really afford to part with Ward? He hit 36 homers with 103 RBIs for the Angels last season, which has dropped to seven homers and 27 RBIs, and is a free agent after the season.
Do they give up on him or believe he’ll turn it around?
Prediction: STAYING
The New York Yankees are salivating over the chance to acquire Ryan Jeffers, and the Rays are in the mix, too.
Who wouldn’t want a power-hitting catcher who’s back healthy with a .941 OPS?
The Twins’ dilemma is that they are still hanging in the race, just 3 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central race and 2 back in the wild-card race. They do have reliable Victor Caratini, but he’s not Jeffers.
“There’s nothing you can do about it,’’ Jeffers said this weekend in Chicago. “You just go out there and continue to play baseball. If I wanted to be a GM, I’d stop playing. So, I’ll keep on playing and figure out the future career path after I’m done.”
Prediction: GOING
The Padres gave up their top prospect and three other prospects to acquire him a year ago, believing he would make their bullpen so powerful that they would never blow a lead.
They never envisioned that they’d become so mediocre this year that 14 times already he has had three or more days of rest, including a stretch in June where he never appeared for six days. He has had only 10 save opportunities since May 30.
Simply, he’s too valuable to sit around and rot in the bullpen, and the Padres could use their return to bolster their woefully thin rotation.
Prediction: GOING
It’s crazy to think that the Reds would trade Greene, right? He’s one of the most talented young pitchers in the game, but injuries have limited him to just 123 ⅔ innings since the end of the 2024 season. He also is under team control through the 2029 season at $52 million.
So why would the Reds even think about it?
Well, with so few sellers on the market, and Greene not turning 27 until three days after the trade deadline, the Reds are intrigued just to see what they could command on the market, seeing if someone blows them away.
Prediction: STAYING
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB trade deadline predictions: Will these 12 players on the bubble stay or go?
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