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William Contreras has been a scoring machine against struggling right-handed pitchers.
That should continue Saturday vs. Merrill Kelly, which is why he headlines our three MLB player props and MLB picks for Saturday, July 4.
Best MLB player props today
|
Player |
Pick |
Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
William Contreras |
Over 0.5 runs |
-105 |
|
Freddie Freeman |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs |
-142 |
|
JP Crawford |
Over 0.5 walks |
+128 |
William Contreras Over 0.5 runs (-105)
William Contreras has feasted on right-handed pitching this season, sporting a .294 average and .349 on base percentage.
He has a spectacular matchup against Merrill Kelly, who owns a 5.84 ERA and ranks in the first percentile in Pitcher Run Value.
Isolating right-handed starting pitchers who rank in the 30th percentile or worse in ERA, Contreras has scored in 11 of 15 games this season – tallying 13 in total.
Look for the Milwaukee Brewers star to make his way around the bases tonight. Play to -135.
-
Where to watch: BREW, AIRD
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-142)
Griffin Canning has no answers for left-handed hitters. He has allowed a whopping .312 average against lefties while ranking in the 16th percentile in xwOBA.
Freddie Freeman is a prime candidate to take advantage. The veteran lefty has recorded multiple H+R+R in 67.6% of his games when facing a starter who sits in the 50th percentile or worse in both xwOBA and OBP.
That number climbs to 72% in winning efforts, which is certainly noteworthy with the Los Angeles Dodgers -250 favorites to come out on top.
Back Freeman to -160.
-
Where to watch: SDPA, SNLA
Shane Bieber is struggling with control vs. left-handed hitters. He is striking them out at the exact same rate as he’s walking them (15.8%), which is not a recipe for success.
Since the beginning of the 2025 campaign, J.P. Crawford has played 21 games against starting pitchers ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in K% and BB% against left-handed hitters.
Crawford drew at least one free pass in 15 of them, including four of five this year. Crawford has walked eight times in just five such matchups this season.
I see a lot of value. Play to -115.
-
Where to watch: Sportsnet, SEAM
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
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Prop picks: 2-1, +1.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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