One of the summer’s most anticipated dominoes finally fell on Wednesday. Jaylen Brown is reportedly headed to Philadelphia in exchange for Paul George, two first-round picks and two second-round picks. Brown had the best statistical season of his career in Boston last year (28.7 points, 6.9 boards, 5.1 assists) as the team’s unquestioned No. 1 option with Jayson Tatum sidelined for most of the campaign. It was an MVP-caliber season!
So seeing Brown, a former Finals MVP in his prime, getting flipped for a 36-year-old George says a lot. But that tells us everything about Brown’s market and Boston’s willingness to trade him to a divisional rival. Philly gave up notable draft picks to get the deal done, but it’s clear Boston was ready to move on from their All-NBA player star. Trading with a division rival with this caliber of player makes it even wilder. Now Brown and George step into a very different environment with fantasy implications to talk about.
Jaylen Brown
Coming off his most productive season, it’s a downgrade for his fantasy value because he goes from a free-flowing, 3-point-centric offense with a 30-plus percent usage rate to a team where he’ll have to divvy up touches with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. The good news is, Brown is now the best player on this team, so I’d expect he’ll get fed plenty. Just don’t expect him to put up the numbers he did last season. Rather, a 25-6-3 line is certainly attainable. I’d put Brown near the third-or-fourth rounds in fantasy next season.
Tyrese Maxey
Maxey took a massive leap as the Sixers’ star player last season, earning All-NBA honors. Having a dynamic three-level scorer on the wing will help his assist potential and efficiency, but I suspect there will be some drop-off. Brown is a different tier above George at this point, so he’ll absorb more usage and shot volume at Maxey’s expense. I’m not sure if Maxey is a mid-first-rounder after this news.
VJ Edgecombe
This is a significant blow for Edgecombe’s stock. With Embiid healthy, he’ll be the fourth option offensively, which is far from ideal heading into his sophomore season. The minutes are safe and he’ll still rack up plenty of steals and counting stats. However, it’s more about his ceiling getting capped as a result of another star entering the situation.
Joel Embiid
Adding Brown probably puts less emphasis on the need for Embiid to play every night or heavy minutes. Something has to give, though, and hopefully this means Embiid will be near the rim more, since Brown operates in the mid-range. The Sixers need to lighten his load to play deep into the playoffs, so this move actually benefits Embiid. His injury profile is too extensive to take him before the fifth round, but getting a high-volume scorer like Brown can help Embiid’s efficiency.
Paul George
I love this for George’s value. He gets out of Philly, a team where he was likely going to get passed up by Edgecombe in the pecking order, to a Boston team that just lost 30% of its team’s usage. George will be a strong complementary piece to Jayson Tatum and Derrick White in the starting unit. Assuming he’s healthy, there could be a comeback in the works from a fantasy perspective. I’m not sure I’m willing to pay it at cost but PG is still a decent fantasy asset for points, middling rebounds and assists, 3s and steals.
Jayson Tatum
Gets a boost. George is not Brown and won’t demand as much of the share of touches and shot volume. Tatum is a first-round pick, especially with him expected to be even closer to 100% in the fall.
Derrick White and Payton Pritchard
Both guys will get more opportunities as the offense opens up without Brown. White remains a strong fourth-round option while Pritchard is a target around the seventh or eighth rounds.
Final thoughts
George is a winner, but this blockbuster deal depresses the fantasy value of most of the starters in Philly. Edgecombe the most. Still, Maxey is in a good spot to be a top-15 player and Brown is settling in as a top-40 guy in 9-cat, top-25 in High Score. Embiid’s health will always be the main factor in his fantasy performance.
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